UK General Election Prediction Thread

[ObserverIE]

An overlooked factor is a possible 3 seat pickup by SDLP in NI, in
- Foyle (very likely)
- Down South (likely, if 3 point swing from Sinn Féin)
- Belfast South (possible, if 2 point swing swing from DUP)

Numbers here.

Contingent of Sinn Féin & DUP losing ground after their high water mark of 2017, these 3 seats would be very pro-Remain and necessitate a higher Tory threshhold.

I can't see the SDLP regaining South Down, but Foyle looks a possibility and South Belfast looks likely to be gained by either SDLP or Alliance.

On the other hand, Fermanagh South Tyrone is a possibility for a UUP gain, and whatever about the new UUP leader's position on Brexit, the local candidate may have other ideas.

[ObserverIE]

Con 361
Lab 206
SNP 42
Lib Dem 16
DUP 10
SF 6
PC 5
SDLP 2
Green 1
Speaker 1

Being deliberately pessimistic and assuming that if the polls are out, it may be in a similar fashion to 2015 rather than 2010 or 2017. I suspect the voters of small-town England will get the chance to repent at leisure (insert reference to Mencken here).