UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Conservatives around 300, Labour around 200, Lib Dems around 75, SNP around 50. Nothing for the Brexit Party. Plaid and the Greens hold their current seats. The real "fun" begins on December 13.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Conservatives around 300, Labour around 200, Lib Dems around 75, SNP around 50. Nothing for the Brexit Party. Plaid and the Greens hold their current seats. The real "fun" begins on December 13.

LibDems around 75 seems pretty high.

It does, doesn't it?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Conservatives around 300, Labour around 200, Lib Dems around 75, SNP around 50. Nothing for the Brexit Party. Plaid and the Greens hold their current seats. The real "fun" begins on December 13.

LibDems around 75 seems pretty high.

It does, doesn't it?

Especially with a 300/200 Con/Lab result. If the Lib Dems have won 75 seats (and those seats are anything like the seats they are targeting) they will have pulled far more heavily from currently held Tory seats than Labour ones. If the LD's get 75 I'd expect the Tories to be somewhere around 225 and Lab somewhere around 275. The SNP would probably be under 40 as well.

Thanks. My mental math was off. Let's adjust the Lib Dems down a little bit and the two big parties up a bit, then.

As I said on my posts before, amongst the 3 nations whose elections I pay attention too (US, Canada, UK) this seems like the most predictable election in a very very long time.

No, it really, really doesn't.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Revising my (optimistic) prediction from the beginning of the campaign.

Conservatives about 340
Labour about 220
Lib Dems about 20
SNP about 45
Plaid about 5
Greens 1 or 2
Northern Ireland parties 18

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Well, I was wrong. Oh well.