UK General Election Prediction Thread

[CumbrianLefty]

Corbyn *may* finally step aside in those circumstances, doubtless citing his age and that if such a result occurred he would have "defied expectations" twice in a row and thus be in a stronger position to hand over to a younger but still left wing successor.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories are the largest party, but Labour will lead a remainer minority government. The Lib Dems will hate to give Corbyn the nod, but seeing him forced to choke down a second referend Milliband-style will make it worth it for them.

Corbyn would cope in that scenario, I suspect.

The extent of both his support for and interest in Brexit is rather exaggerated by some.

[CumbrianLefty]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

2010, where many if not most people forecast an outright Tory majority - not to mention the wild swings in public opinion during the campaign?

I think you must have meant 2005

[CumbrianLefty]

My ideal result would be Labour doing bad enough that Corbyn gets “sacked” as leader, but the Conservatives don’t get a majority or do poor enough where a General election needs to be called long before 2024

These things will likely only go together if the LibDems win more seats than at time since the 1920s.

[CumbrianLefty]

Richard Tice is apparently the "new" BxP man in Hartlepool, which suggests they think they have at least a shot there.

[CumbrianLefty]

SDLP are almost certain to win back Belfast S methinks.

North is genuinely 50-50 and could well be recount(s?) terrirory.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't believe the Alliance hype in NI, as with their mainland cousins the European elections overstate the real strength of their position. They are almost definitely *not* going to win Belfast S or indeed get close.

(Belfast E and North Down are where they should be concentrating their efforts tbh)

[CumbrianLefty]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

[CumbrianLefty]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

Absolutely true of course (hence 'long way to go') but I'm not sure why a manifesto release would halt Labour's propensity for putting its foot in it that it has demonstrated over the last week or so. Of course, Boris has hardly proven himself to be Blair circa-97, but unlike Corbyn, he doesn't have to be.

Can't say I have noticed this much, save for some dubiously media hyped "incidents".

(and there were certainly those in the 2017 campaign as well)

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

This is far from decided (the campaign hasn't really started yet, even) and anyone who claims otherwise is a sucker. Tory leads of 7-8% in the latest polls btw - not exactly a "waltz" on those figures even now, still less so if "strategic" anti-Tory voting takes off.   

[CumbrianLefty]

At the moment the Tories are well placed, but they may have played their last best card - the "let's eat up as much of the Brexit Party as we can" one.

The fact they intend to release their manifesto so late (just two weeks before the GE, almost unheard of in previous campaigns) suggest it is going to be a damage limitation exercise after the folk memory of 2017, not an inspiring programme that will sweep the board.

[CumbrianLefty]

The polls are if anything getting closer, rather than the opposite. So any prediction the Tories will get more seats than in their 1983 landslide (when they were c16% ahead nationally) looks.....brave.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is this only ever true of supposed "heartland Labour seats" being lost and never the opposite?

Just asking.

[CumbrianLefty]

You can even have Canterbury at the last GE as a counter example

[CumbrianLefty]

Its now being speculated that the SNP may drop a few more seats to the Tories.

(though personally I will believe that when I actually see it)