UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Walmart_shopper]

Tories are the largest party, but Labour will lead a remainer minority government. The Lib Dems will hate to give Corbyn the nod, but seeing him forced to choke down a second referend Milliband-style will make it worth it for them.

[Walmart_shopper]

Conservative Majority

Maybe King Boris can rope PM Scheer and President-re-elect Trump into a UK-North American trade deal after Brexit, eh?

[Walmart_shopper]

I know anything can happen and all that but I really struggle to see ANY scenario where the Conservatives don’t win a majority and Labour doesn’t go down to the tune of the ‘97 Tories.

I mean, considering the Tories could very well lose quite a few London (+ suburban) seats & some South-West seats to the Lib Dems while gaining some significant vote share in the North that's still not enough (especially with the Brexit Party on 5-10%) to unseat Labour in most cases, it's very easy to see more-than-plausible scenarios with the Tories on less than 326.

Yeah I don't think that a Tory msjority is any better for them than 50/50 for them. The generic poll numbers are certainly not telling the whole and rapidly developing story.

[Walmart_shopper]

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet, here's a fun tool for this kind of thing:

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=prediction

If, like me, you're not a supporter of the Conservative party you should probably to avoid the 'nowcast' if you've been having a good day until this point. If you are though, I'd also caution that the resulting pleasure you may experience potentially makes it NSFW content.

Their "nowcast" is literally the worst election predictiom I have ever seen. It's like Tory Brexiteer electoral cosplay, and bears virtually no relationship with reality.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think it best for Britain to leave an EU

That's the problem when you don't have a clue.
You think the problem will go away when the UK leaves, because you like simple solutions. But it will have only begun.

The UK leaving sets the scene for a decade of renegociations of all the existing treaties under other forms.
Trade agreements? The WTO? Northern Irish border? Gibraltar? Border at Calais?
It's taken 3 YEARS and 2 PMs to deal with ONE piece of legislation (article 50), and that's still not done.

These problems will still be around for a generation, since only EU stability removed the political incentive for politicians to pick at the scabs of history.

The bare-bones, substance-free intellectual dumpster fire of today's nationalistic populism has absolutely nothing to do with the future, much less building a brighter one. It is mindless flexing--emoting, really--of patriotic ambition. But because it's bare-bones and substance-free it's the scrawny guy flexing absurdly for the snickering girls. And that's Britain today. Parading around as a kind of powerhouse that is being dragged down by Europe when the opposite is so obviously true--without the EU the UK is not only not strong and not a more hopeful place, but it's not even the UK anymore. It's just England, the skinny pale chav who believes that FINALLY we'll Make Essex Great Again without having word-slushing Poles ruining the place. And maybe we'll even win the World Cup.

Meanwhile the world looks on amd snickers. Well done, Brexiteers. Well done.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

Is there anyone who doesn't understand that early campaign poll leads for the Tories mean very little when it comes to the final election results?

[Walmart_shopper]

I feel about this pretty much exactly as I felt a month ago. Tories get between 305 and 310 seats and maybe manage to stay in power with a fragile minority government but without the ability to "get Brexit done."