UK General Election Prediction Thread

[DaWN]

I've made some constituency-by-constituency predictions I'd like to post but (by their nature) they are a bit long and could be construed as spammy - basically I wanted to make sure beforehand there were no objections (I shall construe silence as a lack of objection).

[DaWN]

I'll begin with a few caveats

- This is obviously very early and a lot can change in the next five weeks.
- At least one seat I rate Safe will change hands. That I guarantee.
- I've tried to keep this absolutely objective and I welcome people pointing out when I'm failing in that.
- Colours in the text will go off the 2017 result not the current MP (apart from Brecon & Radnorshire when I get to it)

We'll start with London:
Barking - Safe Labour
Battersea - Tossup. Obviously a narrow win for Labour last time, but given its a very remainy area the Lib Dems will give it a go, and there are a lot of rather wealthy bits for the Tories to mine. Genuine tossup, whether two or three-way (probably two). Lab hold gun to my head.
Beckenham - Safe Tory. Yawn
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - Safe Labour. Hughes was the only reason it wasn't Labour for that long and when the bloom came off that rose, it reverted to form.
Bethnal Green & Bow - Safe Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford - Safe Tory
Brent Central - Safe Labour. lol Remember when the Lib Dems held this? Doubt they'll bother but you never know. Only question here is the margin though. And even then I doubt it'll be much of a question.
Brent North - Safe Labour.
Brentford & Isleworth - Safe Labour.
Bromley & Chislehurst - Safe Tory. Boooooring
Camberwell & Peckham - Safe Labour. The Lady Who's Fault All Of This Is will win by miles, unless she retires, in which case whichever Corbynite loon the local party drags up will win by miles instead.
Carshalton & Wallington - Likely Lib Dem. Hardly prime Lib Dem territory anymore but difficult to see them losing this when they're doubling their vote share nationwide.
Chelsea & Fulham - Lean Tory. Where the Lib Dem vote comes from/to what extent might end up being key here but I think the Tories will probably hold.
Chingford & Woodford Green - Lean Tory. IDS will get the fight of his life but I think he'll persevere. Would love to be wrong.
Chipping Barnet - Tossup. Labour's challenge here will be to keep losses to the Boys in Yellow to a minimum and to hope the Tories losses to them are high enough. I'd bet on a Tory hold but could go either way.
Cities of London & Westminster - Lean Tory. Why did Chuka move here? Bizarre going from literally the most remain seat in the country where he had a decent personal vote to a seat where the Lib Dems have been irrelevant for yonks. Still, obviously they think something is going on here but I'm not sure if I buy it. Tory hold. Probably.
Croydon Central - Lean Labour. Vote split danger for Labour here. Probably have enough cushion in the majority though. Probably.
Croydon North - Safe Labour
Croydon South - Safe Tory
Dagenham & Rainham - Lean Tory. Oh dear. Cruddas has to hope that Leavers see Labour's position on Brexit the same way Remainers do, otherwise he's in a world of sh!t. Then again, this was the kind of area the Tories actually did improve on in 2017 and they couldn't get the job done then, so... I don't know. Tory gain I think but it'll be close.
Dulwich & West Norwood - Safe Labour. Oh look, that's familiar. Our esteemed local Corbyn Mouthpiece will be re-elected comfortably I think, even if it will be a lot closer than it was last time, above a different party.
Ealing Central & Acton - Safe Labour. The margin will be interesting though.
Ealing North - Safe Labour. yawn.
Ealing Southall - And that theme is carried on...
East Ham - And on...
Edmonton - And on....
Eltham - Likely Labour. Majority isn't enormous and the vote split issue comes up again, but I think Labour hold.
Enfield North - Safe Labour. Ryan calling it quits ended any remaining lingering doubts about the result here.
Enfield Southgate - Tossup. Vote split you say? Well, as with all of the seats, its difficult to say what'll happen, but remember that the Lib Dems will probably take a bit from the Tories as well in a seat like this. Tilts Labour hold but far from certain.
Erith and Thamesmead - Safe Labour. Most likely a yawn
Feltham and Heston - See above
Finchley & Golders Green - Tossup. Hmm. The problem with seats like this is that it is basically impossible to ascertain by how much the Lib Dems will surge and who they'll take votes from, compounded by a Lib Dem MP being parachuted so clearly they think something is up here. So I'm genuinely not sure about this. I guess Tory hold because I have to say something but who knows.
Greenwich & Woolwich - Safe Labour
Hackney North & Stoke Newington - Safe Labour. lol. You-Know-Who wins easily even if it isn't the humungous margin from last time.
Hackney South & Shoreditch - Safe Labour. A real large amount of middle class hippies who are a key target group for the Lib Dems in this seat... but also a lot of deprived natural Labour territory as well. So Safe Labour but margin could be interesting.
Hammersmith - Safe Labour.
Hampstead & Kilburn - Likely Labour. This was a three-way marginal in 2010, right? Will be interesting to see if that's replicated and to what extent. This isn't exactly the kind of area where Corbynism or Lexit will go down all that well, so Siddiq therefore wins on her own merits with a reduced margin. But she will almost certainly win.
Harrow East - Tossup. Errr, no clue. Students? I guess I'll say Tory hold because I have to say something
Harrow West - Safe Labour. The guy who played the lead role in Blake's 7 wins easily
Hayes & Harlington - Safe Labour. The safest of the Labour 'Big Four'. Obviously they're all safe, but in a universe where Labour get  decimated in a way they won't in this one, McDonnell is the last to fall. Maybe not a coincidence he's the only one with anything approaching a brain cell.
Hendon - Tossup. See whole thing about who knows how well the Lib Dems will do/where their vote comes from. So unknown. Tory hold if I have to say something. Which I do.
Holborn & St Pancras - Safe Labour. Spineless Underling The Great wins by miles, even if not as many miles as it was last time.
Hornchurch & Upminster - Safe Tory. splat.
Hornsey & Wood Green - Likely Labour. Didn't the Lib Dems do well here locally even before the surge? Can imagine they'll give it a go but that's a hell of a majority to overturn.
Ilford North - Likely Labour. Streeting by a reduced but still fairly solid margin
Ilford South - Likely Labour. Oh lord. If the Lib Dems stand aside for Gapes he might have a shot but I'll admit I'm erring on the side of caution (and hope) here and Labour are basically guaranteed to hold. If they don't then it goes straight to Safe Labour.
Islington North - Safe Labour. Obviously. But if there is a God or deity of any kind reading this - please. PLEASE. PLEASE?!?!
Islington South & Finsbury - Safe Labour. Unlike North, this seat is much more middle class and hippieish. The Lib Dems may well give this a shot and Thornberry's attempts to separate herself from the rest of the Labour frontbench over Brexit has had mixed success. Having said that, Labour hold and it won't be close, but the margin could be interesting. But probably won't honestly.
Kensington - Tossup. Oh dear. With a majority that small normally the Tories would be favoured to retake... but in a very remainy place like this where the Lib Dem vote comes from might be key. And then there's the issue of the Yellows throwing in an incumbent MP so something must be up, right? Very difficult to gauge. Tory gain if there's a gun to my head.
Kingston & Surbiton - Safe Lib Dem
Lewisham Deptford - Safe Labour. The most remainy of the three Lewisham seats by some distance interestingly. Not that it matters.
Lewisham East - Safe Labour. Lib Dems may look at their by-election result and go 'oooh' but they shouldn't.
Lewisham West & Penge - Safe Labour. sleepy
Leyton & Wanstead - Safe Labour. very sleepy
Mitcham & Morden - Safe Labour. very, very sleepy
Old Bexley & Sidcup - Safe Tory. zzzzZzzzzz
Orpington - Safe Tory. zzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzz (although Tory candidate antics might be quite funny)
Poplar & Limehouse - Safe Labour. zzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzz
Putney - Tossup. Can safely label this one under f!ck knows for a variety of reasons. Might call it a Labour gain for bants, but seriously, f!ck knows.
Richmond Park - Safe Lib Dem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas
Romford - lib dem gain i reckon imo tbqh imo (Safe Tory for the sarcasm-deficient)
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Safe Tory. Boringly Tory seat will produce a boringly Tory result
Streatham - Safe Labour. Had Chuka stood his ground this could have been interesting. He didn't, and therefore it won't be. It is, of course, the most remain seat in the country which the Lib Dems will use to make leeway but I can't see them actually winning. Think a result more similar to 2010 than 2017 though. Labour... gain? hold? Labour win by any rate
Sutton & Cheam - Likely Tory. Leave, but only marginally, so maybe the Lib Dems could give it a go? The 2018 locals were a bit sh!t for them in an area that's always delivered for them, but that was pre-surge. Almost certainly a Tory hold but a glimmer of an upset exists.
Tooting - Safe Labour. Khan't see any way the former Mayor's seat flips. Ha I amuse even myself.
Tottenham - Safe Labour. verrrryyyy booooring (although this is my sleeper pick for the largest majority in London given Lammy probably won't struggle with remainers like a lot of his colleagues may)
Twickenham - Safe Lib Dem. Obviously.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip - Likely Tory. That's a much smaller majority than I remember it being but Boris is safer than he looks. None of the other parties quite have a winning coalition here - too rich for Labour, too Brexity for the Lib Dems, not quite insane enough  for The Traitor's vehicle. So Boris wins, even if it's a bit embarassing.
Vauxhall - Safe Labour. Still can't believe Hoey managed to win so easily last time. What the f!ck was everyone thinking. Anyway, I'd go as far to say that the Lib Dems might even have been favoured here had the incumbent stood for re-election. But she retired, and therefore Labour will hold easily.
Walthamstow - Safe Labour. zzzz
West Ham - Safe Labour. zzzzz
Westminster North - Safe Labour
Wimbledon - Lean Tory. Tory hold I think, but will be close either way and could produce a bizarre result. Couldn't everywhere.

[DaWN]

South East:

Aldershot - Safe Tory. Yawn. (This might end up being a theme of this one btw)
Arundel & South Downs - As above.
Ashford - As above
Aylesbury - As above
Banbury - As above
Basingstoke - As above
Beaconsfield - Safe Tory. Grieve is standing again as an indpendent endorsed by the Lib Dems but this is a fanatically Tory area that was only marginally Remain in the first place.
Bexhill & Battle - See Basingstoke, et. al.
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton - As above
Bracknell - Safe Tory, especially now that Lee has buggered off. Was definitely the right move, this was never going to be winnable.
Brighton, Kemptown - Safe Labour, mainly because this is about as unfriendly territory for the Tories as you can get at the moment and the Lib Dems and the Greens will probably give it a miss (the former has better targets nationwide and the latter will want to throw everything at protecting Lucas).
Brighton, Pavillion - Safe Green. Having said what I did above, Lucas will win and it won't be close.
Buckingham - Safe Tory. Hey, these voters actually get to participate in the democratic process for once!
Canterbury - Tossup. How much the Lib Dems improve by and where that vote comes from will be key here. Given Labour's core in Canterbury itself which is probably far from bad Lib Dem territory, I'd wager on a Tory gain but Labour obviously aren't out.
Chatham & Aylesford - See Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, et. al.
Chesham & Amersham - As above
Chichester - As above
Crawley - Lean Tory. In a such a Leaver seat the Lib Dems will be a non-entity, meaning this will be a straight Tory-Labour fight, one I'm inclined to give to the incumbent. And I might be being a bit too generous to Labour. Maybe.
Dartford - See Chichester, et. al. (This used to be Key Marginal Seat Dartford if you can believe it)
Dover - Likely Tory. See Crawley but a larger majority and more heavily for Leave.
East Hampshire - See Dartford, et. al.
East Surrey - As above
Eastbourne - Tossup. Lloyd rejoined the Lib Dems when the election was called and he's standing again. How he plans to reconcile this seat's leaviness with the national party I have no idea but if anyone can do it its him. Tilts Tory gain for now though.
Eastleigh - Safe Tory. Fool's gold for the Lib Dems.
Epsom & Ewell - See East Surrey, et. al.
Esher & Walton - Safe Tory. Also fool's gold for the Lib Dems. Its Esher for f!cks sake.
Fareham - See Epsom & Ewell, et. al.
Faversham & Mid Kent - As above
Folkestone & Hythe - As above
Gillingham & Rainham - As above
Gosport - As above
Gravesham - As above
Guildford - Likely Tory. Very Remainy and the Lib Dems will use their good local performance as an excuse to give it a go but I highly doubt that will translate into success. Stranger things have happened though.
Hastings & Rye - Tossup. Another genuine Tory-Labour contest but one I think the Tories will just win. Will be close though.
Havant - See Gravesham, et. al.
Henley - As above
Horsham - As above
Hove - Safe Labour. Seems fairly self-explanatory to me.
Isle of Wight - See Horsham, et. al.
Lewes - Likely Tory. Did vote Remain but not by miles. The former MP didn't stand last time though so the close result wasn't artificial like in some other seats like this but LD performance locally hasn't been great. Will be interesting but I think the Tories will be the last ones standing here.
Maidenhead - Safe Tory. Genuinely surprised May is running for re-election here. Maybe she's planning to be the female Ted Heath. Now that would be a fitting end to her story. Obviously she wins.
Maidstone & The Weald - Safe Tory. I'd be fascinated to know how Maidstone itself votes without all the rural bits tagged on, but obviously that wouldn't be big enough for its own seat. Tories therefore win in perpituity.
Meon Valley - See Isle of Wight, et. al.
Mid Sussex - As above
Milton Keynes North - Tossup. Another of those Blue-Red seats that I expect to be Blue at the end but could go either way.
Milton Keynes South - As above.
Mole Valley - See Mid Sussex, et. al.
New Forest East - As above
New Forest West - As above
Newbury - As above
North East Hampshire - As above
North Thanet - As above
North West Hampshire - As above
Oxford East - Safe Labour. Not much to say about. Lib Dems will make second I think but certainly won't be close.
Oxford West & Abingdon - Likely Lib Dem. Almost certainly an easy win for Moran.
Portsmouth North - Safe Tory. And the award for MP with the most upper class name goes to...
Portsmouth South - Tossup. A Labour-Tory marginal last time but the seat's LD history might make them give it a go and complicate things. Tory gain if forced to choose but I honestly don't know.
Reading East - Lean Labour. Very Remainy but its difficult to say if the LDs will improve here and who they'll take votes from. This is much friendlier territory for Labour than a lot of the other seats they took in 2017 so i think they're favoured for now.
Reading West - Lean Tory. Leavey seat where I think the Tories will be able to come out on top.
Reigate - See North West Hampshire, et. al.
Rochester & Strood - Safe Tory. Remember the by-election? Fun times they were. Not really though.
Romsey & Southampton North - Safe Tory. Margin might be a bit interesting but no doubt about the victor.
Runnymede & Weybridge - See Reigate, et. al.
Sevenoaks - As above
Sittingbourne & Sheppey - As above
Slough - Safe Labour. No issues for them here I think. It's still Slough after all.
South Thanet - Likely Tory. Brexit vote split is the path to Labour victory here and I don't think that will happen. Can't rule it out categorically though.
South West Surrey - Safe Tory. Rhyming Slang wins by miles. The fight for second place might be interesting.
Southampton Itchen - Tossup. Very, VERY close last time and in a leavey seat the LDs won't be relevant, which will lead to a Tory-Labour fight. I think the Tories will come out on top but neither result would surprise.
Southampton Test - Safe Labour. Little to say here.
Spelthorne - See Sittingbourne & Sheppey, et. al.
Surrey Heath - As above
Tonbridge & Malling - As above
Tunbridge Wells - As above
Wantage - As above
Wealden - As above
Winchester - Tossup. Very Remainy seat where the Lib Dems did relatively well in 2017. They have a lot going for them here but the majority is very big. Lib Dem gain if forced to guess but it will probably be close.
Windsor - See Wealden, et. al.
Witney - As above
Woking - As above
Wokingham - Lean Tory. Were you surprised out to find this seat voted Remain? And it wasn't close either? I certainly was. Anyway, as much as I'd love Redwood to go down, I doubt it'll happen. Just making the old fart actually have to campaign will be victory enough though. Lib Dems did make quite a lot of gains in May though, so I don't think he's entirely safe.
Worthing East & Shoreham - Lean Tory. Was surprisingly close in 2017 but I don't think that will be repeated. I'll be cautious and say its only Lean though.
Worthing West - Safe Tory. Was rather less close last time.
Wycombe - See Woking, et. al.

[DaWN]

South West:

Bath - Safe Lib Dem. I hope I don't have to explain why.
Bournemouth East - Likely Tory. Relatively close last time but I doubt that'll come to anything.
Bournemouth West - Likely Tory. As above.
Bridgwater & Somerset West - Safe Tory. zzzzzz.
Bristol East - Safe Labour. Margin might be interesting though.
Bristol North West - Likely Labour. A seat that has passed the Tories by I think. Could be interesting if Labour collapse but otherwise I think they'll be fine here.
Bristol South - Safe Labour. Margin probably won't be interesting either.
Bristol West - Safe Labour. Second most Remain seat in the country so the Lib Dems will make a push for second, but won't get any further.
Camborne & Redruth - Lean Tory. If Labour can get tactical voting on their side they might be in with a chance. But whether they can do that with the Lib Dem improvement and Corbyn's endless uselesness is very much an open question.
Central Devon - See Bridgwater & Somerset West
Cheltenham - Lean Lib Dem gain. Very Remainy seat where the Lib Dems had a rare good result in 2017. If they aren't winning this they aren't doing well nationwide.
Christchurch - See Central Devon, et. al.
Devizes - As above
East Devon - Safe Tory. That independent that made it relatively close last time is giving it another go but as Swire is throwing in the towel I don't think she'll get any traction.
Exeter - Safe Labour. Has Bradshaw been reselected yet? I certainly hope he has.
Filton & Bradley Stoke - Lean Tory. Closer than I remember. I think the Tories will be favoured here but where an improved LD share comes from might be key.
Forest of Dean - See Devizes, et. al.
Gloucester - Likely Tory. I'm fairly certain the Tories will be the last ones standing here.
Kingswood - See Forest of Dean, et. al.
Mid Dorset & North Poole - As above
Newton Abbot - As above
North Cornwall - Safe Tory. Only close last time because the old MP ran again, which he isn't this time.
North Devon - Safe Tory. As above, pretty much to the word, even though the Lib Dems performed decently at the locals.
North Dorset - See Newton Abbot, et. al.
North East Somerset - Safe Tory. He's inevitable. Don't kid yourself otherwise.
North Somerset - Safe Tory, depressingly so. F!cking Liam f!cking Fox.
North Swindon - Likely Tory. Labour will be focusing on the other seat I don't think this will matter much.
North Wiltshire - See North Dorset, et. al.
Plymouth Moor View - Likely Tory. But basically Safe frankly. Labour will be focusing on holding P,S&D and this was a very Leavey seat (which you'll notice I'm not really using as a justification for somewhere being averse to Labour, but sometimes that is the case).
Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport - Lean Labour. Large majority last time and the hliarity of Ann "Cleverdicks" Widdecome standing for The Traitor's vehicle might pose a vote split problem for the Tories. Not safe for Corbyn's Happy Brigade though.
Poole - See North Wiltshire, et. al.
Salisbury - As above
Somerton & Frome - As above
South Dorset - As above
South East Cornwall - As above
South Swindon - Lean Tory. Whoever wins this will be the largest party I think. So Tory on that basis. But a Labour win would not surprise.
South West Devon - See South East Cornwall, et. al.
South West Wiltshire - As above
St Austell & Newquay - Likely Tory. If one of Labour and the Lib Dems can consolidate the other's vote then maybe this could flip but I highly doubt it.
St Ives - Lean Tory. Andrew George running again is the only reason this is competitive - there's quite a bit of friendly territory for the Lib Dems here (the seat's namesake especially) but overall its just not a natural seat for them anymore.
Stroud - Tossup. David Drew is the one person who could defy gravity for Labour here and the Tories haven't exactly chosen a stellar candidate but in the end I think the national picture will determine this one. Tilts Tory gain on that basis.
Taunton Deane - See South West Wiltshire, et. al.
Tewkesbury - As above
The Cotswolds - As above
Thornbury & Yate - As above
Tiverton & Honiton - As above
Torbay - As above
Totnes - Lean Tory. This is a Leaver area but with a bit of tactical voting Woollaston might not be done for yet. Still clearly the underdog though but local results were decent for the Lib Dems. Will be interesting.
Truro & Falmouth - Lean Tory. If Labour can consolidate some tactical voting then this might be an opportunity, but that's a dubious assertion and quite a few students will be home by this point.
Wells - Lean Tory. Similar to St Ives in that it was only close last time because of the old MP running again, who is running once more this time. Not natural territory but if they're having a good night nationwide, that plus Munt's personal vote might get them over the line, and some decent local results might give them hope. Probably not though.
West Devon & Torridge - See Torbay, et. al.
West Dorset - As above
Weston-supre-Mare - As above
Yeovil - As above

[DaWN]

I'm more bullish on you with the Libs down SW - I think Andrew George is favoured this time in St Ives; for one example - he can easily squeeze the fairly large 2017 Labour vote and the old Community Liberal tradition is clearly not dead (as I believed it was before the last locals). I also think Cornwall is one of those areas that voted Brexit, but are not defined by that as much as other places, if that makes sense.

I'm probably being overly cautious on St Ives, George is definitely in with a good shot. I based my on rating on the fact that it is Brexity and St Ives/Penzance can't outvote the rest of the seat on their own, plus tactical voting could be unpredictable. Obviously my mind would be far from blown if he won.

Elsewhere in Cornwall I'm not so sure, especially as Labour did eclipse them in a few seats in 2017. Some of the margins and second places will be interesting but other than St Ives I don't think there's any opportunities down there.

[DaWN]

Eastern:

Basildon & Billericay - Safe Tory. Yawn.
Bedford - Tossup. Fairly standard Blue-Red marginal. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Braintree - See Basildon & Billericay
Brentwood & Ongar - As above
Broadland - As above
Broxbourne - As above
Bury St Edmunds - As above
Cambridge - Lean Labour. Very Remainy with a lot of prime Lib Dem territory against a result that was probably inflated in 2017 due to that election's unique circumstances. Local results have been decent but not spectacular for the Lib Dems. Zeichner is favoured to hold but things might get interesting if the Yellows have a better than expected night.
Castle Point - See Bury St Edmunds, et. al.
Central Suffolk & Ipswich North - As above
Chelmsford - Safe Tory. Didn't the LDs do well locally here? Obviously Tory hold but the margin might be interesting.
Clacton - See Central Suffolk & Ipswich North, et. al.
Colchester - As above
Epping Forest - As above
Great Yarmouth - As above
Harlow - As above
Harwich & North Essex - As above
Hemel Hempstead - Safe Tory. Margin will be indicative of the national picture though.
Hertford & Stortford - See Harwich & North Essex, et. al.
Hertsmere - As above
Hitchin & Harpenden - As above
Huntingdon - As above
Ipswich - Tossup. Same as Bedford, right down to a Tory gain if I was forced to choose.
Luton North - Safe Labour
Luton South - Likely Labour. The Lib Dems standing down for Shuker might given him the tiniest, winsiest glimmers of hope, but I'm frankly being very generous to him here.
Maldon - See Huntingdon, et. al.
Mid Bedfordshire - As above
Mid Norfolk - As above
North East Bedfordshire - As above
North East Cambridgeshire - As above
North Norfolk - Likely Tory gain. Without Lamb this is practically gone. Sorry. (Having said that the local elections results weren't bad at all so maybe there's a glimmer of hope...)
North West Cambridgeshire - See NE Cambridgeshire, et. al.
North West Norfolk - As above
Norwich North - Tossup. Another standard Blue-Red marginal. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Norwich South - Safe Labour. Margin may be interesting but probably not.
Peterborough - Tossup. The Brexit vote has declined since the by-election which was the main reason Labour won. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Rayleigh & Wickford - See NW Norfolk, et. al.
Rochford & Southend East - Lean Tory. That's being cautious though, despite it being close last time, I think the Tories will win.
Saffron Walden - See Rayleigh & Wickford, et. al.
South Basildon & East Thurrock - As above
South Cambridgeshire - Likely Tory. Allen retiring probably doesn't inspire much confidence for the Lib Dems, despite an impressive local performance.
South East Cambridgeshire - Safe Tory. Margin will interest.
South Norfolk - See South Basildon & East Thurrock, et. al.
South Suffolk - As above
South West Bedfordshire - As above
South West Hertfordshire - As above
South West Norfolk - As above
Southend West - As above
St Albans - Lean Lib Dem gain. A genuinely impresive performance in 2017, a very Remainy seat and a distinctly unimpressive incumbent lead to a fairly easy conclusion. Not quite game set and match for the Tories but if the Lib Dems aren't winning this, then its likely they aren't doing so well nationwide.
Stevenage - Lean Tory. Marginal I think will go the Tories way but difficult to say with TOO much confidence.
Suffolk Coastal - See Southend West, et. al.
Thurrock - Safe Tory. Might be one of the seats where The Traitor's vehicle might genuinely contest but I'm not sure they'll get far.
Watford - Tossup. Blue-Red marginal last time but the Lib Dems have a lot of local strength they might finally be able to call upon. It is a Leave seat but only marginally. Will be interesting. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Waveney - See Suffolk Coastal, et. al.
Welywn Hatfield - Likely Tory
West Suffolk - See Waveney, et. al.
Witham - As above

[DaWN]

Wales:

Aberavon - Safe Labour. And There Shan't Be Much Rejoicing.
Aberconwy - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose. Guto Bebb is a very silly name isn't it.
Alyn & Deeside - Lean Labour. If they're losing this it's a bad night for them, which is far from impossible but not super likely.
Arfon - Tossup. Plaid hold if forced to choose. Will definitely be close and Labour aren't going to let them run away with it.
Blaenau Gwent - Safe Labour. Reasoning: It's the sodding valleys.
Brecon & Radnoshire - Lean Lib Dem. The incumbent is probably favoured for the same reasons she won in the first place. Not safe though.
Bridgend - Lean Labour. See Alyn & Deeside. Interesting that its a Remain voting seat in the area thats a key marginal. Can't imagine why that might be.
Caerphilly - See Blaenau Gwent
Cardiff Central - Safe Labour. Of course, this is Remain voting and not a marginal. Margin and the fight for second place might be interesting but the winner won't.
Cardiff North - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. I imagine this will be a straightfoward two-way marginal but it is fairly Remainy so a hypothetical Lib Dem improvement/where those votes come from might be key. Or might not.
Cardiff South & Penarth - Safe Labour
Cardiff West - Safe Labour.
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr - Lean Plaid. The majority should hold but if Labour are having a better than expected night then its not out of the question they take this.
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire - Lean Tory. Just looks a bit like that doesn't it. Sometimes reasoning doesn't need to be complex.
Ceredigion - Tossup. Remainy with a history of Liberals but neither the incumbent nor his party have done much to disgrace themselves. Will depend how badly the Labour vote disintegrates and where it goes. Lib Dem gain if forced to choose. (Ignoring the LD-Plaid alliance shenanigans for now)
Clwyd South - Lean Labour. Basically see Alyn & Deeside and Bridgend.
Clwyd West - Lean Tory. See Carmarthen West. Bit of a pattern establishing itself, isn't it?
Cynon Valley - See Caerphilly, et. al.
Delyn - Lean Labour.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Safe Plaid. Probably because none of the other parties have anyone that can pronounce the constituency's name.
Gower - Tossup. The incumbent may be made to Gower away but I think she'll hold on balance. Will probably be close.
Islwyn - See Cynon Valley, et. al.
Llanelli - Safe Labour.
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney - See Islwyn, et. al.
Monmouth - Safe Tory
Montgomeryshire - Safe Tory. (if only Lembit was running, I could do with some comic relief this election)
Neath - Safe Labour
Newport East - Safe Labour
Newport West - Safe Labour
Ogmore - Safe Labour
Pontypridd - See Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, et. al.
Preseli Pembrokeshire - Tossup. I imagine if the incumbent loses he'll be a bit Crabby about it. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Rhondda - See Pontypridd, et. al.
Swansea East - Safe Labour
Swansea West - Safe Labour
Torfaen - Safe Labour
Vale of Clwyd - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose.
Vale of Glamorgan - Lean Tory
Wrexham - Tossup. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Ynys Mon - Lean Labour. At least I think so. This is a weird-arse seat.

[DaWN]

West Midlands:

Aldridge-Brownhills - Safe Tory. Is this the only UK constituency with a Canadian style dash in the title?
Birmingham Edgbaston - Lean Labour. The Tories have a high floor here but the endless 'close but no cigar' stuff here must be beginning to get up their noses as a bit. I suspect it will end up that way again unless Corbyn really self-destructs (and of course that remains a very distinct possibility)
Birmingham Erdington - Likely Labour
Birmingham Hall Green - Safe Labour. Btw I've yet to encounter anyone on the interwebs who actually likes Godsiff but I guess that's a good indication of how opinions on the internet don't decide elections. Take note, any Yanks reading.
Birmingham Hodge Hill - Safe Labour. Unlikely they'll make a Hodge podge of this ho ho ho
Birmingham Ladywood - Safe Labour. Obviously.
Birmingham Northfield - Lean Labour. Not a huge majority but they should be okay.
Birmingham Perry Barr - Safe Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak - Safe Labour
Birmingham Yardley - Safe Labour. Lib Dem vote might actually fall here contrary to what will likely happen nationwide (Hemming was the only reason it somewhat held up last time.) And for those who dislike Phillips, you might want to look away from this one.
Bromsgrove - Safe Tory
Burton - Safe Tory
Cannock Chase - Safe Tory
Coventry North East - Safe Labour
Coventry North West - Lean Labour. Majority might be deceptive but I couldn't say for sure.
Coventry South - Lean Labour. As above.
Dudley North - Lean Tory gain. Think that Austin's luck will probably run out this time if he stands again. It doesn't look like he will.
Dudley South - Safe Tory
Halesowen & Rowley Regis - Lean Tory
Hereford & South Herefordshire - Safe Tory. I have complete faith in the Lib Dems here... to hold onto their deposit. (In all seriousness, the margin might be a bit interesting but it certainly won't be anything resembling close)
Kenilworth & Southam - Safe Tory
Lichfield - Safe Tory
Ludlow - Safe Tory
Meriden - Safe Tory. Nick Timothy was almost selected here. The irony would have been too much.
Mid Worcestershire - Safe Tory
Newcastle-under-Lyme - Lean Tory gain. Pretty certain Labour's luck will run out here too.
North Herefordshire - Safe Tory
North Shropshire - Safe Tory. yaaaaaaaaaaaawn
North Warwickshire - Likely Tory.
Nuneaton - Lean Tory. Frankly that feels generous to Labour though
Redditch - Safe Tory
Rugby - Safe Tory
Shrewsbury & Atcham - Safe Tory
Solihull - Safe Tory. Can't believe they ever didn't hold this.
South Staffordshire - Safe Tory
Stafford - Safe Tory. God, we have so many of these stupid safe seats. What a terrible electoral system.
Staffordshire Moorlands - Safe Tory
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Lean Labour. The least likely to flip of the Stoke seats but still in danger. I think they're just about favoured.
Stoke-on-Trent North - Tossup. Tilts Labour though.
Stoke-on-Trent South - Lean Tory. Would probably be Likely if it wasn't for the priveleged London Tory boy MP but maybe that won't matter now he's the incumbent. I'm not sure this is a very Corbyn-receptive area. Or not. Drat, torn between my hatred of Corbyn and my hatred of priveleged Tory boys.
Stone - Safe Tory
Stourbridge - Safe Tory
Stratford-on-Avon - Safe Tory. These words are beginning to lose all meaning I've typed them so many times
Sutton Coldfield - Safe Tory. But of course.
Tamworth - Safe Tory. Anyone know again good card tricks?
Telford - Tossup. Tilts Tory though.
The Wrekin - Safe Tory. I came in like a Wrekin ball...
Walsall North - Likely Tory. Yeahhh...
Walsall South - Lean Labour
Warley - Safe Labour
Warwick & Leamington - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose.
West Bromwich East - Likely Labour. Glad that Watson was reselected, just because it annoys the Corbynites. Doesn't mean I'd vote for him if I was WBE or that I like him. I wouldn't and I don't.
West Bromwich West - Lean Labour
West Worcestershire - Safe Tory
Wolverhampton North East - Lean Labour
Wolverhampton South East - Safe Labour
Wolverhampton South West - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Worcester - Lean Tory. Labour should have stuck with the woman from London who had a screw or nine loose. They wouldn't have won the seat but it would have been absolutely hilarious.
Wyre Forest - Safe Tory. Wyre do I think this? Well, I'll leave that to you to work out.

[DaWN]

Is the dynamic in Montgomeryshire, which you have as Safe Tory, really that different from Brecon & Radnorshire, which you have as Lean LD, (aside from the obvious by-election in the latter)? The incumbent is standing down in the former, and both seats had similar margins in 2017, so just wondering.

Lib Dem incumbent in B&R, Montgomeryshire voted Leave by a fairly wide margin while it was a narrow one in B&R, Lib Dem activists in west Wales will be sent straight to Ceredigion while B&R is the Lib Dems only seat of interest in East/South Wales, and while the raw vote margin was very similar in 2017, the percentage majority was much higher. If the Lib Dems really reestablish themselves Montgomeryshire might come back into play in an election or two, but I don't see it as competitive this time around.

[DaWN]

East Midlands (calling some of these seats East Midlands is really quite a stretch but hey):

Amber Valley - Safe Tory
Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.
Bassetlaw - Tossup. Not quite as ugly as Ashfield for Labour but getting there. The incumbent calling it quits doesn't help them here as it does there. Tilts Tory gain.
Bolsover - Safe Labour as long as Skinner runs. When he invevitably leaves Parliament in the only way he was ever going to, it'll probably be a pretty easy Tory gain.
Boston & Skengess - Safe Tory
Bosworth - Safe Tory
Broxtowe - Tossup. Usual caveat about whether the Lib Dems will stand aside for Soubry (looks like they are for now) but in the end I think this will be between the two main parties (unfortunately). Tilts Tory hold.
Charnwood - Safe Tory
Chesterfield - Safe Labour
Corby - Lean Tory. Winnable for Labour if they're having a decent night though
Daventry - Safe Tory
Derby North - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain. Labour are definitely better off without the incumbent (a good pick for the most vile MP in the Commons right now, although Fox, Chope and Blackford run him fairly close) but I still think the Tories will win. Not a done deal of course.
Derby South - Safe Labour. Beckett will be re-elected by a solid but not spectacular margin in the same way she has in every election since 2005.
Derbyshire Dales - Safe Tory
Erewash - Lean Tory. Not much else to say really
Gainsborough - Safe Tory
Gedling - Lean Labour. This might be one of those 'seats that seem safe-ish' but then are lost in a disappointing night and I expect it will be lost if there's a really poor showing for Labour.
Grantham & Stamford - Safe Tory. For some reason whenever I see the surname Boles, I think to The Two Ronnies' Phantom Raspberry Blower of Old London Town. Or maybe its because I watched it the other week. God, these safe seats are bloody boring aren't they.
Harborough - Safe Tory. Yaaaaaawn
High Peak - Tossup. One of the more surprising 2017 gains I think. Labour will hold if they can keep vote bleeding to a minimum. Tories will gain if they can keep vote bleeding to a minimum. If they both succeed or fail at that we're entering god knows territory. Probably tilts Tory gain .
Kettering - Safe Tory. And back to boring.
Leicester East - Safe Labour. Farewell, sweet prince. Although Vaz wasn't sweet, or much of a prince thinking about it... so, just Farewell I suppose.
Leicester South - Safe Labour
Leicester West - Safe Labour
Lincoln - Tossup. See High Peak except delete the surprising gain bit (obviously all Labour gains were surprising in 2017 but you get what I mean...). Tilts Tory gain if you couldn't be bothered to read up.
Loughborough - Lean Tory. I think the majority might be a bit deceptive(ly small). Not a done deal though.
Louth & Horncastle - Safe Tory
Mansfield - Lean Tory. Again not really a great area for Labour these days. The seat was somewhat lost in 2017 because Meale was a crap incumbent but 6,000 vote swings don't happen just because of lazy MPs.
Mid Derbyshire - Safe Tory
Newark - Safe Tory
North East Debyshire - Lean Tory. See Mansfield but delete the crap incumbent bit. Although Engel wasn't exactly an impressive incumbent either.
North West Leicestershire - Safe Tory
Northampton North - Tossup. Tilts Tory hold.
Northampton South - As above
Nottingham East - Safe Labour. Unlike some of the other defectors, Leslie is crap and has absolutely no chance.
Nottingham North - Safe Labour
Nottingham South - Safe Labour
Rushcliffe - Likely Tory. Alas, poor Clarkey. We knew thee well. Incidentally, assuming Skinner wins, that means he'll become Father of the House. A man who hates all the parliamentary procedures and whatnot. As if we needed any more hilarity.
Rutland & Melton - Safe Tory
Sherwood - Lean Tory. I can't be bothered to justify these anymore. It's a semi-marginal Tory seat with a decent but not spectacular majority. Got it?
Sleaford & North Hykeham - Safe Tory
South Derbyshire - Safe Tory
South Holland and the Deepings - Safe Tory
South Leicestershire - Safe Tory
South Northamptonshire - Safe Tory
Wellingborough - Safe Tory

[DaWN]

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.

[DaWN]

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.

His local party just won 30/35 seats on the Ashfield Council in May, and he nearly won in 2010 on the Lib Dem ticket. *Shrug*

I guess we'll see but local strength doesn't always translate into parliamentary strength, especially for Indies and fourth parties

[DaWN]

West Bromwich East - Likely Labour. Glad that Watson was reselected, just because it annoys the Corbynites. Doesn't mean I'd vote for him if I was WBE or that I like him. I wouldn't and I don't.

Damn. The Corbynite celebrations tonight will dampen my mood.

No change to rating for the seat and I'd be very glad to see him gone if it wasn't for the minor fact his replacement as Deputy Leader is guaranteed to be much, much worse.

[DaWN]

Here's DaWN's predictions so far, mapped on the capital blank map afleitch provided in the discussion thread.

Colors are safe/likely/lean/tossup-advantage.
Pardon the misalignment of the NAT color spheres with the rest; I added them later.

This is really cool! (And also really appreciated as there is zero chance I would have the time or patience to do something like it) Thanks!

[DaWN]

Yorkshire & The Humber:

Barnsley Central - Safe Labour
Barnsley East - Safe Labour
Batley & Spen - Lean Labour. The size of the majority last time was probably somewhat inflated by by-election unwind but there's likely enough cushion in it to keep it red for now.
Beverley & Holderness - Safe Tory
Bradford East - Safe Labour
Bradford South - Likely Labour
Bradford West - Safe Labour
Brigg and Goole - Safe Tory. Safe seats are so dull.
Calder Valley - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Cleethorpes - Safe Tory
Colne Valley - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain. Fairly bog standard marginal gained in 2017 that will be a good barometer.
Dewsbury - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose but I do expect it to be close.
Don Valley - Lean Labour
Doncaster Central - Safe Labour
Doncaster North - Safe Labour. Miliband wins by miles and that is a good thing.
East Yorkshire - Safe Tory
Elmet and Rothwell - Safe Tory
Great Grimsby - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain but the incumbent could still come out Onn top.
Halifax - Tossup. Definitely tilts Labour but I think the majority last time may have been deceptive.
Haltemprice & Howden - Safe Tory. Davis wins by miles and that is not a good thing.
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Safe Tory. Margin might be a bit interesting though. Might not. Won't be close.
Hemsworth - Safe Labour
Huddersfield- Safe Labour
Keighley - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Kingston-upon-Hull East - Safe Labour
Kingston-upon-Hull North - Safe Labour
Kingston-upon-Hull West & Hessle - Likely Labour
Leeds Central - Safe Labour. This incumbent's relevancy has been Benn and gone.
Leeds East - Safe Labour. The incumbent will be the next leader of the Labour party, mark my words
Leeds North East - Safe Labour
Leeds North West - Lean Labour. Very Remainy suburban seat but unlike in Sheffield Hallam, the incumbent has been low-profile  and inoffensive, and this is a less friendly seat for the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems won it though.
Leeds West - Safe Labour
Morley and Outwood - Lean Tory. It could be lost but frankly in an area like this, that was very strong for Leave, I think the Tory majority will go up. Not safe though.
Normanton, Pontecraft & Castleford - Safe Labour
Penistone & Stockbridge - Tossup. Simple Blue-Red marginal, Tory gain if forced to choose.
Pudsey - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Richmond - Safe Tory. and begin william hague impression in 3, 2, 1...
Rother Valley - Tossup. Does Tilt Labour, mainly because of vote split issues for the Tories, but this could very easily fall.
Rotherham - Safe Labour
Scarborough & Whitby - Lean Tory. That might be generous to Labour though. It is difficult to say if the 2017 result was an aberration or not but I'm inclined to say yes. Funny how this would be probably be fanatically Tory if it were 200 miles further south.
Sc u nthorpe - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose. Atlas censors it if I don't put the gaps in, which is just hilarious.
Selby & Ainsty - Safe Tory
Sheffield Central - Safe Labour. The fight for second place will be the interesting one.
Sheffield South East - Safe Labour
Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough - Safe Labour
Sheffield, Hallam - Likely Lib Dem gain, for reasons that should be perfectly obvious. Tempted to call this fool's gold for Labour but that would probably be tempting fate a bit too much.
Sheffield, Heeley - Safe Labour
Shipley - Likely Tory. Unfortunately.
Skipton & Ripon - Safe Tory
Thirsk & Malton - Safe Tory
Wakefield - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. The Tories will eventually stop cocking it up here though. Could well  be this time.
Wentworth & Dearne - Safe Labour
York Central - Safe Labour
York Outer - Safe Tory

[DaWN]

Ah, Atlas. Where about six or seven obvious trolls who destroy the quality of conversation are happily tolerated but you can't say the name of a prominent English town.

Anyway, moving on.

North West (another stupid region. Nantwich and Carlisle for instance have so little in common its extraordinary):

Altrincham & Sale West - Likely Tory. Very Remainy and with some Lib Dem local success but the parachuted Lib Dem MP made a bit of a fool of herself the other day for complaining about not getting her severance package if she loses in her new seat. Now, I don't think this cock-up by itself is going to change anything (literally nobody will care or remember it even happened by election day) but it doesn't exactly show confidence does it?
Ashton-under-Lyne - Safe Labour
Barrow and Furness - Tossup. Woodcock joined The Independents? I don't remember that happening. Probably because it doesn't matter and wouldn't matter even if he hadn't retired. Anyway, Red-Blue marginal. Tilts Tory gain and it's very possible I'm being generous to Labour. F!ck knows why.
Birkenhead - Safe Labour. Strong enough for Labour that a strong Field showing (very unlikely anyway) won't make the tiniest bit of difference.
Blackburn - Safe Labour
Blackley & Broughton - Safe Labour
Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Lean Tory. A strong lean though.
Blackpool South - Lean Labour. Not a hugely strong lean though.
Bolton North East - Lean Labour
Bolton South East - Safe Labour
Bolton West - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold
Bootle - Safe Labour
Burnley - Safe Labour. Apparently Gordon Birtwistle is going for it again on a pro-Brexit platform? As a Lib Dem? Okey doke. He might make second place. He won't win.
Bury North - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold.
Bury South - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold. This is compounded by the incumbent restanding as an independent. Now obviously he'll come nowhere near to winning and holding his deposit will be a victory for him... but it could become a vote split issue, particularly if there's a Lib Dem surge beyond expectations (not hugely likely because of Idiot Remainers Voting Labour but you never really know). It all leads to a competitive race I feel, but one Labour are just about favoured in.
Carlisle - Lean Tory
Cheadle - Tossup. It will come down to how badly the Labour vote disintegrates and where it goes, but this isn't really a very Boris area is it. Lib Dems also have done well locally but the Tories should not be counted out. Tilts Lib Dem gain.
Chorley - Safe Speaker gain. This system really needs reform. Disenranchising 75,000 people for parliamentary procedure is frankly unacceptable in my eyes.
City of Chester - Likely Labour. This is probably as good as safe though.
Congleton - Safe Labour. Not Fiona Bruce the newsreader btw
Copeland - Lean Tory for basically the same reason it was won and held in the first place. Obviously a Labour win wouldn't amaze me.
Crewe & Nantwich - Tossup. Tory gain if forced to choose
Denton & Reddish - Safe Labour
Eddisbury - Safe Tory. Despite the incumbent changing parties and restanding.
Ellesmere Port & Neston - Safe Labour
Fylde - Safe Tory. I wonder how many parties will Fylde a candidate here
Garston & Halewood - Safe Labour
Halton - Safe Labour
Hazel Groze - Lean Tory. Bizarre result in 2017 in a Leave seat but I guess Manchester suburbia isn't the worst place for the Lib Dems, plus recent local results have been encouraging. Probably won't result in a win but certainly not impossible.
Heywood & Middleton - Likely Labour. In hindsight this by-election was a good predictor of how Brexit would turn out and we all probably should have seen it. Although, even if we had all seen it, it would have required a Labour leader who could be bothered to campaign. I'm still 7/10 for putting him on top of a firework btw.
Hyndburn - Lean Labour
Knowsley - Safe Labour
Lancashire West - Safe Labour
Lancaster & Fleetwood - Lean Labour. Will Lancaster outvote the rest of the seat? I'll say yes but not a done deal.
Leigh - Safe Labour
Liverpool Riverside - Safe Labour
Liverpool Walton - lean tory because it voted leave (Safe Labour for the sarcasm-deficient)
Liverpool Wavertree - Safe Labour
Liverpool West Derby - Safe Labour
Macclesfield - Likely Tory. Holy crap that was way closer than I remembered. Anyway, Tories will almost certainly win for a variety of reasons.
Makerfield - Safe Labour
Manchester Central - Safe Labour. Margin/LD performance might be interesting but no doubt about the result.
Manchester Gorton - Safe Labour
Manchester Withington - Safe Labour. Same caveat as Central though
Morecambe & Lunesdale - Lean Tory
Oldham East & Saddleworth - Safe Labour
Oldham West & Royton - Safe Labour
Pendle - Lean Tory
Penrith & The Border - Safe Tory
Preston - Safe Labour
Ribble Valley - Safe Tory
Rochdale - Safe Labour
Rossendale & Darwen - Lean Tory
Salford & Eccles - Safe Labour
Sefton Central - Safe Labour
South Ribble - Likely Tory
Southport - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold. Lib Dems will probably fall back a bit here. How that affects the Blue/Red vote I'm not sure.
St Helens North - Safe Labour
St Helens South & Whiston - Safe Labour
Stalybridge & Hyde - Likely Labour
Stockport - Safe Labour
Stretford & Urmston - Safe Labour
Tatton - Safe Tory. Unfortunately.
Wallasey - Safe Labour
Warrington North - Safe Labour
Warrington South - Tossup. Tilt Tory gain
Weaver Vale - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold
Westmorland and Lonsdale - Likely Lib Dem. Farron got a scare last time but this time round he's kept a much lower profile and has probably been spending time in the constituency given that scare. Combine this with the national vote increase and he'll probably be fine.
Wigan - Safe Labour
Wirral South - Likely Labour
Wirral West - Lean Labour
Workington - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. Will probably be very close unless one of the two main parties outperforms expectations/Brexit do better than expected.
Worsley & Eccles South - Likely Labour
Wyre & Preston North - Safe Tory. This one won't come down to the Wyre
Wythenshaw & Sale East - Safe Labour

[DaWN]

Really nice effort at a breakdown, but sometimes I wonder whether you take the Brexit vote into enough account.

My predictions assume a tactical squeeze to the two main parties - you'll notice outside of London and a few select constituencies that are a. very remainy, b. likely to be close or c. both, I'm not taking the LDs into account much either. I'm aware I could be wrong on this but if Brexit looks out of contention in a lot of seats (which they will) I think the votes will go back to whichever of the two main parties the individual voter was already more attached to. Again - could be wrong.

[DaWN]

And onwards we go

North East:

Berwick-upon-Teed - Safe Tory. Only held by the Lib Dems as long as they did because of Beith.
Bishop Auckland - Lean Tory gain. It was an act of political magic to hold on last time but I think Labour's luck will run out here.
Blaydon - Safe Labour. Yawn
Blyth Valley - Likely Labour
City of Durham - Safe Labour. Margin might interest but the result won't. And when I say 'might interest' I mean 'might be merely whopping rather than ginormous'.
Darlington - Tossup. Tilt Tory gain. Much of the majority last time was due to the terrible Tory candidate which won't be repeated. Better chance than in Bishop Auckland though.
Easington - Safe Labour. It won't be Easington to displace Labour here. heh
Gateshead - Safe Labour. Yaawn.
Hartlepool - Likely Labour. Or maybe not? How the Brexit vote ends up, especially in a seat like this, is difficult to properly judge. I'm unconvinced they'll get enough support to win the seat though, even if it looks deceptively close. I wouldn't be utterly blown off my seat if I'm wrong though.
Hexham - Safe Tory. This was close in 1997. Really. It was that mad of a year.
Houghton & Sunderland South - Safe Labour. Unfortunately it and the other early declarers won't be able to tell us much about the national swing. It failed to do so in 2015 and 2017 after all. Might give a few tiny clues though.
Jarrow - Safe Labour
Middlesbrough - Safe Labour
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Lean Tory. Maybe that's a bit generous to Labour. Or maybe it isn't.
Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central - Safe Labour. Yaaawn
Newcastle-upon-Tyne East - Safe Labour. Yaaaawn
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Safe Labour. Yaaaaawn
North Durham - Safe Labour
North Tyneside - Safe Labour
North West Durham - Likely Labour. I have a lot of not very nice things to say about this incumbent but I'll keep it to the unfortunate fact that she will almost certainly win.
Redcar - Safe Labour
Sedgefield - Lean Labour. This one probably falls one day but I'm uncertain that it'll be this time. Obviously not out of the question though.
South Shields - Safe Labour
Stockton North - Likely Labour
Stockton South - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Sunderland Central - Safe Labour
Tynemouth - Safe Labour
Wansbeck - Safe Labour
Washington & Sunderland West - Safe Labour

A reasonably sized region with no constituencies I would dispute as being in a region described as 'North East'. Shocking stuff.

[DaWN]

Scotland:

I'll begin with the preface that I despise the SNP and having to predict them winning almost everything is a depressing affair.

Aberdeen North - Safe SNP
Aberdeen South - Tossup. Tilts Tory, especially now the... er... interesting incumbent called it quits.
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - Likely Tory
Airdrie & Shootts - Likely SNP
Angus - Lean Tory
Argyll & Bute - Likely SNP. Alan Reid giving it another crack means that the Lib Dems have a decent floor to rely on which might be a problem for the Tories who will also give it a go. So I say O'Hara will hold on but could get interesting. But probably not.
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold
Ayrshire Central - Likely SNP
North Ayrshire & Arran - Safe SNP
Banff & Buchan - Lean Tory
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - Safe Tory. SNP will make gains across Scotland but this is not an area for them. It shows  how bizarre 2015 was that they won in the first place.
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - Likely Lib Dem. Don't see any reason why Stone would struggle.
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - Likely SNP gain. Most of these 2017 gains will spring right back. Personally, I'm torn between my hatred of the SNP and my hatred of Corbyn. Drat.
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East - Safe SNP
Dumfries & Galloway - Lean Tory. Maybe Likely would be better, not sure. Either way, I think the Tories won't struggle holding.
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - Safe Tory
Dundee East - Safe SNP
Dundee West - Safe SNP
Dunfermline & West Fife - Likely SNP
East Dunbartonshire - Safe Lib Dem. Swinson is inevitable. Get over it.
East Kilbridge, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Safe SNP
East Lothian - Tossup. Tilts SNP gain. Probably Labour's best chance to keep one of their 2017 gains.
East Renfrewshire - Tossup. Tilts Tory. Was very Remainy but they gained it in 2017 for a good reason (its upmarket enough that in England it would be fanatically Tory). An SNP win would obviously hardly shock though.
Edinburgh East - Safe SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith - Likely SNP
Edinburgh South - Lean Labour. That's a hell of a majority to overcome but then again, it's not like there isn't precedent in Scotland...
Edinburgh South West - Likely SNP
Edinburgh West - Likely Lib Dem. Doubt the SNP will even bother given the Labour targets nearby. Don't think there'll be an issue.
Falkirk - Likely SNP
Glasgow Central - Safe SNP
Glasdgow East - Likely SNP
Glasgow North - Likely SNP
Glasgow North East - Likely SNP gain. See Coatbridge, C & B.
Glasgow North West - Safe SNP
Glasgow South - Safe SNP
Glasgow South West - Likely SNP
Glenrothes - Safe SNP
Gordon - Tossup. Tilts Tory.
Inverclyde - Likely SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Safe SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun - Safe SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Likely SNP gain. See Glasgow NE.
Lanark & Hamitlon East - Likely SNP
Linlithgow & East Falkirk - Safe SNP
Livingston - Safe SNP
Midlothian - Likely SNP gain. See Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.
Moray - Lean Tory
Motherwell & Wishaw - Likely SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar - Safe SNP. I think. Bizarre seat but one that in the end I think will be safe for the SNP even when Scotland begins to resemble a vaguely democratic country again. Whenever that will be.
North East Fife - Safe Lib Dem gain. They lost it by 2 votes when their nationwide vote share was less than half what it is at the moment. You do the maths.
Ochil & South Perthshire - Tossup, Tilt Tory. Without the electoral albatross of the previous SNP incumbent they will probably do a bit better. Remains to be seen. Interesting that the previous incumbent for East Dunbartonshire is standing here - shows the SNP are real confident about that one (but here's how Swinson can still lose!!!)
Orkney & Shetland - Safe Lib Dem. Jo Swinson could set a goose on fire and they'd still hold this one comfortably. The only truly safe Lib Dem seat in the country.
Paisley & Renfrewshire North - Safe SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South - Safe SNP. Signpost and weathervane my arse.
Perth & North Perthshire - Likely SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - Likely SNP. With a sizable Labour vote to squeeze, whichever of the Tories and the Lib Dems really give it a go might have a chance, but given they probably both will, that's more or less it. A shame really, seeing Blackford go down would be so immensely satisfying it would forgive any other awful results this election.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Likely SNP gain. See Midlothian.
Stirling - Lean SNP gain. Yeah, that's not the kind of majority I'd want in this situation. Tories not completely out yet though.
West Dunbartonshire - Safe SNP

While it won't happen this election, it is at least somewhat satisfying to know that every day that passes is a day that we get closer to the SNP finally getting what they deserve. Oh please be soon.

[DaWN]

And finally, Northern Ireland:

I should point out I know far less about NI politics than I do GB politics so these predictions are made with less confidence and will probably have less accuracy. You have been warned. Also both the two main parties are given alternative names because I hate them and want to belittle them. Who says pettiness has no place in psephology.

Belfast East - Likely GOP-NI. Maybe that's a little generous to the GOP-NI, but I'm not sure Alliance get that breakthrough this time. Would like to be wrong.
Belfast North - Tossup. GOP-NI hold if forced to choose but I imagine this one will come down to the wire.
Belfast South - Tossup. Tilts GOP-NI hold but the SDLP will run them close. I imagine.
Belfast West - Safe IRA
East Antrim - Safe GOP-NI
East Londonderry - Likely GOP-NI
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Tossup. IRA hold if forced to choose. The GOP-NI are standing aside for the UUP but they did that last time and the IRA won anyway even with the SDLP standing, so things aren't always predictable. Will be very close again no doubt.
Foyle - Tossup. IRA hold if forced to choose but I imagine this will also be very close.
Lagan Valley - Safe GOP-NI
Mid Ulster - Safe IRA
Newry & Armagh - Safe IRA
North Antrim - Safe GOP-NI
North Down - Lean GOP-NI gain. The GOP-NI and the UUP will fight this one out but I think a good rule in Northern Ireland is that when in doubt, the insane party wins. Shame to see Hermon go.
South Antrim - Lean GOP-NI. See above (minus the Hermon bit)
South Down - Lean IRA. Might be an unpredictable seat. The whole 'not really knowing NI as well as GB' thing comes into play for me here though.
Strangford - Safe GOP-NI
Upper Bann - Likely GOP-NI
West Tyorne - Safe IRA

And that concludes that. If I decide any individual ratings are to change between now and polling day (and there more than likely will be) then they'll be posted here.

[DaWN]

Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

Thanks for the map!

[DaWN]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

[DaWN]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

Absolutely true of course (hence 'long way to go') but I'm not sure why a manifesto release would halt Labour's propensity for putting its foot in it that it has demonstrated over the last week or so. Of course, Boris has hardly proven himself to be Blair circa-97, but unlike Corbyn, he doesn't have to be.

Again, long way to go though.

Doesn't 10 Scotland seats for the Tories seems pretty optimistic for them? I was under the impression that Boris is incredibly unpopular in Scotland, close to what Thatcher was.

I'm sure Boris is despised in Scotland overall but where he'll really be hated (Edinburgh, Glasgow and the rest of the central belt) is where the Tories will be walloped. I'm not sure that will lead to problems for them in seats that are well off and/or rural and/or voted leave. It was a quirk of pre-2015 Scotland that they weren't Tory in the first place. Obviously they (mostly) aren't safe though, given the SNP (snake oil salesmen they are) have more strength than Labour would should those seats be English.

[DaWN]

A few ratings changes

Esher & Walton - Safe Tory

Safe Tory -> Likely Tory

Based on the anecdotal information given to me by cp in the main thread, true, but I'll accept there's a tinge of uncertainty. I'll still very much believe it when I see it.

Cambridge - Lean Labour

Leeds North West - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Likely Labour

The fallen poll numbers, the media hit jobs and Labour's faux Remain tilt mean I think these targets disappear for the Lib Dems. Hallam is the only seat I think they have much of a chance to take from Labour now (obviously it's a very good chance as it was basically an accident it was lost in the first place. Even then I might change that rating in the near future).

[DaWN]

I'd caution against assuming a further Lib Dem collapse automatically helps Labour. It's likely just as much of their support comes from disaffected Tories rather than disaffected Labourites. It's also the case that the former are probably more important when it comes to winning seats.