Are you serious? As of today the polling averages show that the Tories are a bit less than 1% (actually .72%) from reaching the 43.43% they attained in 2017. Some polls show them receiving between 45 to 47%. The same averages show that Labour is running 9% behind its 41.02% received in 2017. Some show it receiving 30% or less.
In spite of that, do you truly believe that the Tories are going to run further behind its 2017
share than Labour? If you really do, I think you need to explain how you reach this conclusion.
I understand the argument that Labor will close the gap. But I think you are a little over exuberant in your estimation.
The Tories may be rising towards their 2017 level but remember during the campaign they were averaging higher than they eventually got. Not impossible they could undershoot this time.
The polling average also significantly underestimated the Labour share, in fact it got worse towards the end of the campaign.
Although I don't think we'll necessarily see a repeat of 2017 polling errors it's not an unreasonable assumption.
Poll
