UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think there will be heavy geographic sorting between the Labour North and Lib Dem south, and the Tory seat share is being overestimated. I would be unsurprised if the Lib Dems clear 40% of the vote in London, and take a majority of seats there. If I had to guess what partiament would be, I'd go with:

Conservative: 257
Labour: 236
Lib Dem: 82
SNP: 50
DUP: 10
Sinn Fein: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
Brexit: 3
Green: 1

In terms of the percentage vote, I'd speculate:
Conservative: 31.4%
Labour: 29.3%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Brexit: 8.7%
SNP: 3.4%
...


This would pretty clearly lead to a Lab-Lib-SNP Coalition, which is probably the best thing Britain can hope for.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

FINAL PREDICTION
I'm optimistic enough to think tactical voting and regional vote concentration for Labour and the Lib Dems will cause Labour to lose fewer seats than expected in the north, and the Lib Dems to gain more seats than expected in the South. With my predicted seat totals, this will lead to a hung parliament. Perhaps that will lead to a Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid+Alliance+Independent+SDLP+Green coalition of chaos one seat over the 323 I project will be needed for a majority. Perhaps the Torys can find 12 MPs willing to give them a majority. Most likely, a Corbyn-led minority government would occur, with a second referendum on Brexit, which is what really counts. New elections within two years would be almost inevitable.

SEAT BREAKDOWN (change from 2017)
Conservatives: 311 (-6)
Labour: 228 (-34)
SNP: 49 seats (+14)
Lib Dem: 35 seats (+23)
DUP: 8 seats (-2)
Plaid: 5 seats (+1)
{Sinn Fein: 5 seats (-2)}
Alliance: 2 seats (+2)
Independent: 2 seats (+1)
SDLP: 2 seats (+2)
Green: 1 seat (-)
Speaker: 1 seat (-)
UUP: 1 seat (+1)

POPULAR VOTE
Conservative: 42%
Labour: 36%
Lib Dem: 13%
SNP: 4%
Brexit: 2%
Green: 1%

PROJECTED FLIPS

Alliance flips from 2017: 2 seats
Belfast East
North Down

Conservative flips from 2017: 31 seats
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Buckingham
Colne Valley
Crewe and Nantwich
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Dudley North
Great Grimsby
Hyndburn
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick and Leamington
Weaver Vale
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington

Independent flips from 2017: 2 seats
Beaconsfield
East Devon

Labour flips from 2017: 7 seats
Bolton West
Crawley
Ipswich
Milton Keynes North
Reading West
Southampton Itchen
Watford

Lib Dem flips from 2017: 23 seats
Altrincham and Sale West
Battersea
Cheltenham
Chelsea & Fulham
City of London & Westminster
Colchester
Esher & Walton
Finchley & Golders Green
Guildford
Kensington
Lewes
North East Fife
Putney
Richmond Park
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Southport
St. Albans
St. Ives
Totnes
Wimbledon
Winchester
Wokingham

Plaid flips from 2017: 1 seat
Ynys Mon

SDLP flips from 2017: 2 seats
Belfast South
Foyle

SNP flips from 2017: 15 seats
Aberdeen South
Angus
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banff and Buchan
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow North East
Gordon
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Midlothian
Moray
Ochil and South Perthshire
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Stirling

UUP flips from 2017: 1 seat
Fermanagh & S Tyrone