UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Tintrlvr]

Predicting Conservatives largest party with small net seat losses overall for both the Conservatives and Labour (compared to 2017; possibly neutral or slight gains compared to current standings), although overall a significant number of seats will change hands in many directions.

[Tintrlvr]

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

[Tintrlvr]

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.

His local party just won 30/35 seats on the Ashfield Council in May, and he nearly won in 2010 as a Lib Dem. I don't think Ashfield can be discussed at least without mentioning the possibility of him winning. Seems likelier than the Tories winning as the Ashfield Independents have basically mopped up the Tory vote locally.

[Tintrlvr]

SDLP are almost certain to win back Belfast S methinks.

North is genuinely 50-50 and could well be recount(s?) terrirory.

Yeah, hard to see how the SDLP misses with SF standing aside for them. Alliance is the wild card, of course.

[Tintrlvr]

Revising my prediction ever so slightly:

You think the SNP will lose seats ?

Especially: to whom? Those results would suggest Labour surging in Scotland at the SNP's expense, but regardless of the accuracy of general polling nationwide, polling in Scotland certainly doesn't suggest Labour gains there...