UK General Election Prediction Thread (user search)
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Poll
Question: 'Not another one...'
#1
Conservative Majority
#2
Conservatives largest party
#3
Labour Majority
#4
Labour largest party
#5
Liberal Democrats largest party
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: UK General Election Prediction Thread  (Read 25024 times)
Pericles
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« on: October 31, 2019, 01:59:21 AM »

Conservatives around 300, Labour around 200, Lib Dems around 75, SNP around 50. Nothing for the Brexit Party. Plaid and the Greens hold their current seats. The real "fun" begins on December 13.

LibDems around 75 seems pretty high.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 09:28:05 PM »

Oh yeah it's good news Kate Hoey is going, really bizarre to have a hard Brexiteer Labour MP in a 78% Remain seat. If she had run I'd probably have rotted for the LibDems here.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2019, 05:58:53 AM »

Only 18 for the LibDems and only 41 for the SNP would be surprising, but the overall result makes sense.
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Pericles
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2019, 07:06:09 AM »

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Didn't the gap only really close in the second half of the 2017 campaign after both parties released their manifestos?
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2019, 09:59:02 PM »

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

You'd have to be an idiot to treat any poll lead as an inevitable victory in British politics nowadays.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2019, 03:42:12 PM »

Had a look at the marginals and based on my assessment I'll go with this;
(Changes are from the last election)
Conservative: 343 (+26)
Labour: 221 (-41)
SNP: 43 (+8)
LibDem: 19 (+7)
650 seats
326 for majority
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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2019, 04:44:24 PM »

I think Labour will surprise by minimizing the losses, and that we will end with a hung parliament because Tories lose too many seats in Scotland.

Latest poll has the Scottish Tories getting the same % vote as last time; it's been forgotten that for a lot of these seats you don't need 50% to win. You just need to get a combination of the unionist vote & the Brexit Vote.

SNP is on 44% though, so the Tories could lose perhaps half their seats in Scotland.
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2019, 12:08:20 AM »

2019 UK election
Boris Johnson-Conservative: 337+20 42.7%(-0.8%)
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 233-29 35.6%(-5.4%)
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 40+5
Jo Swinson-LibDem: 16+4 12.3%(+4.7%)
650 seats
326 for majority


SNP gains; Stirling (from Con), Glasgow North East (from Lab), East Lothian (from Lab), Midlothian (from Lab), Rutherglen and Hamilton West (from Lab), Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill (from Lab)
LibDem gains; North East Fife (from SNP), Sheffield Hallam (from Lab), St Albans (from Con), Cheltenham (from Con), St Ives (from Con), Richmond Park (from Con)
Con gains; Buckingham (from Speaker), Eastbourne (from LibDem), Ipswich (from Lab), North Norfolk (from LibDem), Peterborough (from Lab), Wrexham (from Lab), Dudley North (from Lab), Newcastle-under-Lyme (from Lab), Stoke-on-Trent North (from Lab), Ashfield (from Lab), Bassetlaw (from Lab), Derby North (from Lab), Colne Valley (from Lab), Great Grimsby (from Lab), Keighley (from Lab), Penistone and Stocksbridge (from Lab), Rother Valley (from Lab), Sc**nthorpe (from Lab), Wakefield (from lab), Barrow and Furness (from Lab), Blackpool South (from Lab), Crewe and Nantwich (from Lab), Bishop Auckland (from Lab), Darlington (from Lab), Stockton South (from Lab)
Labour gains; Putney (from Con)

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