UK General Election Prediction Thread

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

Updated NI:
DUP: 8 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 3 (Foyle, South Down, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

SF has screwed up in Foyle. Kinda thinking that Aontu could keep their deposit there.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Tactical voting will make it hard to predict the number of seats that the Lib Dems take. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do better in terms of seats than expected while also doing worse than expected in the popular vote.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

Updated NI:
DUP: 8 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 3 (Foyle, South Down, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

SF has screwed up in Foyle. Kinda thinking that Aontu could keep their deposit there.

Following YouGov’s release of the MRP:

England
Tories: 327
Labour: 189
Lib Dems: 19 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 45
Tories: 9
Lib Dems: 4
Labour: 1

Wales
Labour: 26
Tories: 9
PC: 4
Lib Dems: 1

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8 (incl North Down)
(SF: 7)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

UK Total
Tories: 345
Labour: 216
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 24
DUP: 8
(SF: 7)
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Nationwide Results

Con 330 seats 41.8%
Lab 242 seats 36.5%
LibDem 9 seats 7.6%
SNP 46 seats 4%
UKIP 0 seats 3.9%
Green 1 seat 2.5%
PC 3 seats 0.6%

NI 18 seats (duh) 2%

Other 1 seat 1.1% (Bercow)

Very narrow Tory majority (yes, I did say 330 on purpose)

I wouldn't mind seeing a hung parliament though.

330 wasn’t too far off last time. I think I’ll go with it again. A bit more detailed on the seats than last time, but no PV at this time.

England
Tories: 316
Labour: 193
Lib Dems: 21 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (East Devon)
(Speaker: 1)
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 5
Tories: 5
Labour: 2 (Edinburgh South, K&C)

Wales
Labour: 25
Tories: 9
PC: 4 (incl. Ynys Mon)
Lib Dems: 2 (B&R, Ceredigion)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 9 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

UK Total
Tories: 330
Labour: 220
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 28
DUP: 9
(SF: 6)
PC: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Independent: 1
(Speaker: 1)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Country by Country Breakdown:

England
Tories: 316
Labour: 193
Lib Dems: 21 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (East Devon)
(Speaker: 1)
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 45
Tories: 6
Lib Dems: 5
Labour: 3 (Incl. Edinburgh South; K&C)

Wales
Labour: 23
Tories: 11
PC: 4 (incl. Ynys Mon)
Lib Dems: 2 (B&R, Ceredigion)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 2 (Belfast East and North Down)

UK Total
Tories: 333
Labour: 219
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 28
DUP: 8
(SF: 6)
PC: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2
Greens: 1
Independent: 1
(Speaker: 1)

Aontu will keep their deposit in Foyle and Mebyon Kernow will keep theirs in St Austell and Newquay.