UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Blair]

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

[Blair]

Great analysis and commentary in this thread from all....reminds me of why I joined this site in the first place.

This 100%. I’m tempted to shamelessly copy it and do my own analysis although I’m much more pessimistic- looking forward to Yorkshire/Scotland predictions.

[Blair]

fwiw Leeds North West was held in 2015 purely because of Greg Mullholland and the very very efficient machine he had- which was overwhelmed by the student vote & Tim Farron being useless. 

[Blair]

I think Labour will surprise by minimizing the losses, and that we will end with a hung parliament because Tories lose too many seats in Scotland.

Latest poll has the Scottish Tories getting the same % vote as last time; it's been forgotten that for a lot of these seats you don't need 50% to win. You just need to get a combination of the unionist vote & the Brexit Vote.