UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Labour’s Silver lining

Every election has some seats that buck the general trend and flip towards the party on the backfoot. Unless it’s a tsunami where every seat moves towards one party to some degree, certain regions will still keep up their past trends. In this case, it is the greater South. In these seats it is Labour getting the benefit of tactical voting from educated Remainers, rather than the Lib—Dems. They are all marginal Labour Gains or Tory holds, so Labour Holding or Gaining any of these seats would be shocking. However, that’s what can happen in a region full of seats where Labour gained 10% in 2017. If labour starts to get better results in the next week then seats will be added to this group and removed from the next. Labour Gains or Holds about 33% of these ten:

Crawley

Hastings and Rye

Ipswich

Milton Keynes N

Milton Keynes S

Reading W

Southampton Itchen

Stevenage

Stroud

Watford



The Northern Collapse

This has been the tale of the election: how many seats can BoJo get from Labour in the North to offset potential losses in the South. Well, the losses seem small compared to where they once were, but the North hasn’t seemed to be willing to give Labour another go in many seats. Some losses seem like automatic flips like Barrow & Furness or Darlington, whereas others are more marginal like Bolsover and Bradford South. All told I am seeing 44 Tory flips north of Birmingham and south the Scottish Border (this includes Peterborough & Norfolk North), and the only other gainer in the region is the obvious Lib-Dem flip in Sheffield Hallam. Tory strength is helped by Boris Johnson’s approvals being the best in the Midlands, at least according to multiple regional subsamples. South of this divider there are almost no Tory gains, just the odd Leaver seat held with a marginal majority in 2017 going blue.


Northern Seat Map


Northern Seat Change Map since 2017

Of these 45, there is one seat I have designated as a ‘Shock Seat’ which the media will zoom in on once the result comes in. Currently on the map this is a Tory gain in Blyth Valley. However, it could be any of these others: Hartlepool (Brexit is essentially Tory), NW Durham, Sunderland Central, and a handful of others outside of the immediate NW. If a Sunderland Seat comes in as a marginal or a flip…well the TV stations are going to have something to discuss for a few hours.

Lib-Dem Calculus

The Lib-Dems are starting from a low point and should only be able to go up from their 13 elected MPs, the question is merely by how much. Focused campaigns with strategic voting are hard to capture by polls, and so I made some concessions in their favor when compared to regular models. The thing is, I am seeing the Lib-Dems near their higher end of my expectations. What evidence there is from West London suggests Lib-Dem strength even though the national picture is bleak. More on West London later, but essentially this ‘ladder’ is built by assuming the Lib-Dems are going to get tactical voting boosts in demographically similar seats, albeit not as large of course.

Lib-Dem start: 3 ‘Safer’ seats outside of London or Scotland (Oxford W & Abington, Bath, Westmoreland & Lonsdale)

Easy Flips: If the Lib-Dems don’t gain all these seats, ignore the rest of the ladder. St. Albans, Sheffield Hallam, Winchester, and Cheltenham should all be orange unless the night is bad for the Lib-Dems. This brings the non-London/Scottish total to 7.

Well or Not: If this is a high-end projection, then give the Lib Dems S Cambridgeshire and Guildford, bringing our total to 9. If not, add these two to the next category.

The Pack: Depending on how good you are expecting the Lib-Dems to do you can say any amount of these seats can be holds or gains. However, they are all harder to justify and I have been shrinking the seats accessible in this category daily. When the seats are all tossups, you cut them in two, at least that’s my theory. Right now, it’s ten/twelve, but that can go lower. These ten can be held or gained:

Altrincham and Sale W

Brecon & Radnorshire

Colchester

Eastbourne

Lewes

North Norfolk

SE Cambridgeshire

St. Ives

Totnes

Wokingham

Finally, there is room for one surprise. Everything from that constituency poll yesterday to Raab’s bad reception on the ground suggests that Esher & Walton is more than vulnerable. Raab is well known to be out of step with his district, and when there is a scalp on the line, the opposition get’s frenzied. In my eyes, this is going to be a marginal flip to the Lib-Dems (brining the Non-London/Scottish total to 15), but it will be overshadowed by another high-profile defeat right nearby…

Weird Seats

This is the last group that needs to be covered outside of the London/Scottish/Northern Irish Seats. There are a handful of seats that are just weird, and when your prediction makes errors here one shouldn’t be disappointed. They are:

Beaconsfield: There is no Lib-Dem candidate here, they have endorsed Grieve. Grieve is prominent enough to survive potentially as an independent. His views match his seat’s Remainer lean, and there is 0% chance of any other party winning the seat so tactical voting may be in full swing – especially since it’s essentially a Tory primary. A poll came  out yesterday suggesting that Grieve still couldn’t get a majority…but independents are hard to poll.

Birkenhead: Frank Field was actually smart and has a party to stand for rather than run with the Indie label. Similar to Beaconsfield there is 0% chance of anyone else besides him and Labour winning the the seat, so it becomes a Labour primary. Downside is that Beaconsfield is only marginally for leave, which likely isn’t enough to save field. Labour should easily win, but once again, Independents are hard to poll.

Burnley: This is as close to a 4-way marginal that one may find south of Edinburgh, which makes it especially weird. I say the Tories edge it out since the prominent Lib-Dems and Brexit candidates seem better positioned to eat more from Labour here, but your guess is as good as mine.

East Devon: Claire Wright is running again on her independent ticket, and maybe she has a chance, maybe she doesn’t. On one hand, she is a perennial candidate, and Swire isn’t here anymore for her to run against. On the other hand, her repeated runs have led to a dedicated base forming, and an open seat is easier to flip than an incumbent seat. Also, independents are hard to poll, so who knows.

Southport: Historically a three-way marginal, and those are always hard to call. However, the Lib-Dems seem to have fallen behind, which leads to the question of where their votes will go. The Tory argument is that this seat is in the North where the Blues are gaining, and the Lib-Dems have more in common with the Conservatives than with the low-income workers. The Labour argument is that Southport is an urban seat with a large Remain base who will reject Boris. Who knows.

Ynys Mon: First off, this seat is rather parochial and weird with its preferences. Secondly, it’s a three way race between the Conservatives, Labour, and Plaid. It’s hard to poll Plaid since they get so few votes nationwide, and their voters may always or may never vote tactically depending on the seat. Now personally I think this seat is not going to stay with Labour, it’s either the Tories or Plaid who are getting a pickup, but it’s a three way. Even though I am saying Plaid edges it out, who knows how things may fall.

The London Pushback

Despite the large number of seats flipping away from the Tories, London is a rather simple place to model. It’s one of the only places in the country where politics is similar to US-style coalitions, so we have quite a lot of inflexible seats. Visible Minorities, age gaps, income gaps, homeownership versus income gaps, these all lead to some traditionally stark lines inside the city. This time, these demographics have colluded to present the United Kingdom with two options. They are: Do you believe in the strength of Remainer tactical voting in West London, or do you believe that it won’t be enough?  

There is a lot of on-the-ground data and local polls coming in right now that suggests the Lib-Dem vote is both concentrated and tactical in mind. The leafy, wealthy, white-collar West London seats seem like natural places for the Lib-Dems to gain this cycle. On paper, they seem too Remain for BoJo’s new Conservative party, but also too ‘Tory’ demographically for Corbyn’s radical Labour. We have also got constituency polls that suggest a Lib-Dem surge in this ‘slice’ of the London Pie (obvious disclaimer on the accuracy of constituency polls), with nearly every Tory seat on this side of the city being a 3-way. The more interesting data point though from every constituency poll is that over 50% of the voting population is open to tactical voting depending on who the two realistic candidates are. The same demographic variables that make the region a Troy-Remain stronghold also make it politically attuned to national and local variables. The people here want their votes power to be maximized.

 The data that suggested many seats in the South could flip faded for most of the shire seats, but it never really left inside the city. Instead, it seems to have intensified. Esher & Walton is similar to these west London seats demographically, but it was always closer to the tail end of the Lib-Dem target list. So, if a poll is suggesting E&W is close while we head into the final week, it suggests that the Lib-Dems are on track for more gains to the immediate north. Tactical voting is always missed by even the best models, so don’t be dissuaded by YouGov calling the seats as Conservative Holds. If you think that Tactical voting is going to be occurring to even a reasonable degree in Remain-heavy London, then the Conservative Blue vanishes from all but the outlying seats.





Then there is the other view. This view does not believe in the strength of tactical voting to flip every seat. This view does not deny tactical voting will occur, we already know that, it just won’t go on to the degree that is needed for sweeps. At which case, everything gets far messier. Almost every seat enters a ‘weird’ category and needs to be analyzed individually. Also going against the idea of a sweep is the YouGov poll; remember this is a politically attuned area. Even though tactical voting is missed by the model, the tactical voters will know what they saw, and tons of leaflets may not change that. As it is, Chipping Barnet, Enfield Southgate, and Hendon are in said weird category, thanks to Jewish vote things. Will they go more for the conservatives, hesitant bunkmates that was ‘forced’ upon Barnet in 2017, or will they go Lib-Dem? And then will other conservatives of Labour follow them, and how many voters get stolen in the three way? Or will the Lib-Dems just end up wiping away the tory margin to give the seats to Labour…

Analyzing the seats under the ‘limited’ view requires going individual seat by seat. Richmond Park is more an extension of the already Orange outer seats, the Lib Dems nearly held the seat last time, and the former MP I running. It should flip easily. London & Westminster is less of an easy flip, but Chukka running there should bring over enough Labour voters to make the seat a marginal flip, especially since it’s open and lacking any MP to run on his own non-Boris brand. Putney and Wimbledon are both seats with marginal Tory majorities, but those margins came from Labour being the best Remain horse around in 2017. With the Lib-Dems making serious pushes here, who knows how many Labour voters or even Tory voters will flip tactically. Putney is open whereas Wimbledon still has Stephan Hammond, so there is an argument there that more voters are accessible to team orange or red in Putney. Both will be three-ways in this ‘limited’ scenario since the Labour base was already high before 2017. Kensington is a near perfect three-way so you would just toss the coin up. Battersea could be competitive, but the tactical voters will likely go Labour here. Finchley & Golders Green will have one of the largest swings anywhere in the country, but the limited view puts it in the uncertain pile with the rest of the Barnet seats. Finally, Chelsea & Fulham looks the most likely to reelect their Tory candidate, despite the Star power of the Lib-Dems and the prominence of Hands. It just looks like there are too many lockstep cons here, whereas the other seats were all marginal after 2017.

You, know London is still a Labour city so let’s stop talking all about the Liberal-Democrats. Unless the Tory lead is large enough that every seat moves right in some capacity, the city seems most poised to push back against BoJo. They know the guy after all, and can see through his personas. Like in 2017, Labour will likely pile on more votes here thanks to Remain momentum. Some of this comes from tactical voting, but more just comes from two more years of juiced turnout in in-migration adding more voters. Healthy Remain majorities also make seats more inflexible. This is why YouGov rates nearly every Labour seat in London as safe. All these factors combined are why I think IDS goes down. Remain London is going to move in one way, the Leave north is going to move in another. Labour’s got a good candidate on the ground there, IDS is hated these days in London, and his seat is the natural target for London Labour activists. The Labour will be one of the nights stories if it occurs, and overrule the potential for Raab to become said story. All these factors that I have listed are what’s going on in the Remain majority of London. The minority of Leave seats of the edges of the city are going to experience a similar effect to what’s going on in the rest of the country. Cruddas won’t be able to survive in such a Leave constituency that still had a healthy UKIP vote in 2017. YouGov has the seat as Lean Tory, and I do not disagree.

Scotland

The SNP is rebounding from 2017, the question on everyone’s mind is how much. Scottish politics is different both demographically and factionally from the rest of the UK, and Scotland has twice delivered swings that were unthinkable in other parts of the UK.



Gong back to 2017, the SNP was at a comparative low point. It’s hard to think of things like this, but the SNP has control of the younger demographics north of the border. Labour’s base is older, and more likely to on pensions with memories of Thatcher. The SNP therefore is the principle victim if turnout drops. This is now more of an issue for the SNP since their new base is the urbanized strip between Edinburgh and Glasgow, the rural highland fishing towns have been abandoned to the unionists. The SNP had two urban problems in 2017: Corbyn energized the  youth and flipped some from SNP to Labour, and turnout dropped because of SNP disenchantment. This saw the unionists make a handful of gains in the populated strip.

Looking ahead a week, these problems seem to have reversed. SNP turnout is up, and Labour is down. This is likely not enough to save most Non-SNP MPs between the cities. Only the Lib-Dems are up among the unionist parties, and their vote is contained to a handful of constituencies. Even unionist tactical voting cannot save small majorities of Scottish Labour, something that I will cover in a moment. These are the areas where a turnout bump is going to manifest, and it will flip most of the regions seats Yellow.

Outside of the urban zones though the story is different. The Tories are not down by much, and they are going to hold up in the places most amenable to their unionist message. These are the rural or smalltown highland seats. There is some limited tactical voting that occurs between the unionist parties, and the rural highlands/borders seem most committed to their unionism. The SNP realignment from this area has also done them no favors, and under my prediction nets no Tory losses in the Border or highlands zones. Note how the YouGov model, which doesn’t weight for Tactical voting still has most of the rural seats remaining blue, it’s the denser tory Seats like Stirling and Renfrewshire East that are going to fall to the SNP spike. Finally, I say NE Fife flips to Lib-Dems, but that more of an uncertain call. It’s the next seat on my Lib-Dem list to flip to another party, and I think the unionist vote is going to be more tactical here after the close 2017 result. Remember, the Lib-Dems are up in Scotland on 2017, their campaign strategy tends to be concentrated, and there are only 8-ish seats where that boost can be felt – not all of them realistic Lib-Dem opportunities.

Northern Ireland

I don’t think this sort of projection requires much explanation; it is in a way the average Northern Irish breakdown at this point. The UUP and the SDLP have pursued differing strategies for a revival, with different outcomes. The UUP are seriously contesting everywhere, to maintain their region-wide voter base, but this wide campaign won’t produce any seats. The SLDP are trading long-term voter loyalty in several seats for opportunity in a few specific seats. This seems to be resulting in Westminster gains, but it may not be the best strategy for long term stability in Stormont. Coupled with the expected DUP/Sinn apathy and the limited Alliance surge, we get a few targeted seat flips. These seats are the competitive ones, but this does not mean a guaranteed close race, just a seat that requires investment:



Belfast E: Pure DUP versus Alliance head to head fight. If you believe Alliance still has some momentum, then gains are going to manifest in Greater Eastern Belfast more than anywhere else, flipping this seat.

Belfast N: Nigel Dodds versus Lord Mayor John Finucane was set up to be a grudge match from the very start. I don’t think it’s outlandish to think Sinn’s odds went backwards a bit here after the public urination embarrassment, so I have it as DUP hold.  

Belfast S: Three-way battle between the SDLP, the DUP, and Alliance. From most perspectives it seems as if the SDLP are going to regain this target.

Fermanagh & S Tyrone: UUP versus Sinn in perhaps the UUP’s best seat around. The downside for them though is that the Unionist vote seems to be already consolidated around the UUP, who lacks momentum, whereas Sinn could still pull in Nationalist voters. Currently a Sinn hold.

Foyle: SDLP’s traditional stronghold is a place nobody except the Nationalists should have a chance at winning. The decision to pour in resources and run the  parties leader seems to have paid off, though the resulting gain will likely be marginal.

N Down: Hermon’s retirement opened up a seat for the DUP to potentially gain. There is no nationalist vote here to speak of, but there is a wealthy Remain Unionist vote. Maybe the Alliance can get Hermon’s old base near Belfast to flip Yellow, but right now it looks like the DUP will make this their gain of the night.

S Antrim: Solidly Unionist seat that was a UUP versus DUP battle in the past. The UUP are running their old MP Kinahan, but the slow UUP decline does them no favors. The seat least likely to be a flip on this list, but it will still be marginal.

S Down: One of the few Northern Irish polls released suggested a serious SDLP revival from the pit of 2017. If so, then South Down is back on the target list, even though it wasn’t a SDLP hit at the start of the campaign. It’s more likely to stay with the Sinners though considering the SDLP campaign strategy.

Overall, the 9 – 6 – 2 – 1 breakdown seems like the average and most likely of outcomes at this stage.

[Arkansas Yankee]

ORYXSLAYER MY $64,000 question for you is:  How do the Lib Dems ever catch fire?

Without proportional representation I do not truly see how the Lib Dems ever catch fire.

FPP systems are set up to discourage third parties.

Also party loyalty runs very deep.  I was a never Trumper until I considered the prospect of Hillary as President   My wife had preceded me and pulled me along.   

[Oryxslayer]

ORYXSLAYER MY $64,000 question for you is:  How do the Lib Dems ever catch fire?

Without proportional representation I do not truly see how the Lib Dems ever catch fire.

FPP systems are set up to discourage third parties.

Also party loyalty runs very deep.  I was a never Trumper until I considered the prospect of Hillary as President   My wife had preceded me and pulled me along.  

Ask Nick Clegg

Okay, in all seriousness, there are two ways for a minor party to surge under FPTP, or another restrictive apportionment system. I'm no fool, I respect Duverger and know not to trifle with statistics. However, the past is littered with examples of when parties, in this case of the Liberal to Left side, supplant each other. This cycle there was the potential for two different types of surges to occur, they just never happened.

The first hypothetical scenario is the case of the 'faster horse.' Historical examples  include Spain 2015/16, Canada 2011, Ontario 2017, Greece after the collapse, and France  2017. In this scenario the traditional party has royally stepped in it and can't wipe away the mess. A bad leader and a tainted brand have sent some 'scouts' out to other parties, but the majority still stay with Old Reliable. The new party meanwhile needs to have a leader with at least some charisma. The right has to be off limits, either  because of historical antagonism or a similarly awful brand/mess. Then a big event occurs, say a debate, notable rally, speech, scandal, endorsement, or whatever. At this point, all the somewhat politically attuned voters hop on the the surging party(ies) leaving only those dyed in the wool. Essentially, the new party just won the inter-left primary. If the system is somewhat proportional like in Spain or France's first round, here is where it ends. In FPTP systems though the lockstep voters look around, see what is happening, tell themselves they will always support the left, and en masse switch to the insurgent.

This scenario does not always result in the death of the old party. Some, like the Canadian examples, show that simply giving the old party time to sort out it's issues will heal all the wounds and the lockstep base returns. In other cases, the well to so tainted that nothing can ever be recovered. There was the potential for such a scenario this election: Corbyn is hated by the general electorate, Swinson was unknown, and Labour has a brand that is inflexibly trying to stitch together a chasm. What approvers corbyn has are the dyed in the wool voters, they would flip if forced to choose between Orange or Blue. the problem is, Swinson lacks charisma, and turned away the 'scouts' with her time in the coalition. Labour, for all it's troubles, played to the base this campaign, which means there is never any chance of desertion because Old Reliable needs trip to the repair shop. It's notable that Labour actually feared this scenario playing out, likely scared by Swinson's presidential campaign, which is why they put more  investment in retaining a hold on their Remain base rather than holding down Leave Northerners. This strategy was changed, likely coincidentally, after the YouGov poll dropped. In some way, the UK already experienced this hypothetical when the Tories 'endorsed' the Brexit party for the EU elections.

The Second scenario is the case of 'divide and conquer.' The right in general loves this tactic more than the left, and is happier to allow someone to play second fiddle if it means that the pair will down out all opposition. It also is easier to set up these kind of arrangements in proportional (think Scandinavia) systems, since such arrangements will not waste votes. In FPTP systems votes will naturally be lost in any sort of understanding, unless the alliance becomes formal and on paper. These arrangements emerge when one party is having trouble reaching out to another (often large, but not limited based on size) demographic or ideological group. So another party rises to fill the new gap that was either abandoned by the old party because of policy failings or a bad brand. In the end, both plaster over each others weaknesses and play to their strengths, since they will both be appealing to groups that never would have considered their partner in crime.

This scenario could have  occurred if Labour focused heavily on reasserting itself against a Leave opposition. Thinking about it, Labour really only has London as a concentrated base of remain seats, albeit London is large and vote heavy. If Labour focused more on BoJo, the Lib-Dems could easily step up and fill their natural role as "we're not Labour" in the Tory-Remain shires. This would clearly distinguish the two parties, but their stark contrast in targeted demographics and seats would work to each others benefit and result in combined gains. This hypothetical never emerged because London is inflexible, and Corbyn still played hard to remain rather then narrowing in on BoJo. London, in many ways, is the place where Corbyn is actually liked. Swinson also did herself no favors and staked out a position even more Remain than many Remain Tories. To some degree this hypothetical is still going on, but the seats it is occurring in are  limited a collection on the Lib-Dem's target list.

So these are two scenarios that work under the confines of Duverger and party loyalty, but still allow for a Lib-Dem surge. But said surge needed to manifest early. For example, early on I noted that Maidenhead had the numbers to flip if either situation occured, but it never came.

[Devout Centrist]

[Arkansas Yankee]

Are you serious?   As of today the polling averages show that the Tories are a bit less than 1% (actually .72%) from reaching the 43.43% they attained in 2017.  Some polls show them receiving between 45 to 47%.  The same averages show that Labour is running 9% behind its 41.02% received in 2017. Some show it receiving 30% or less.

In spite of that, do you truly believe that the Tories are going to run further behind its 2017
share than Labour? If you really do, I think you need to explain how you reach this conclusion.

I understand the argument that Labor will close the gap.   But I think you are a little over exuberant in your estimation.

[rc18]

Are you serious?   As of today the polling averages show that the Tories are a bit less than 1% (actually .72%) from reaching the 43.43% they attained in 2017.  Some polls show them receiving between 45 to 47%.  The same averages show that Labour is running 9% behind its 41.02% received in 2017. Some show it receiving 30% or less.

In spite of that, do you truly believe that the Tories are going to run further behind its 2017
share than Labour? If you really do, I think you need to explain how you reach this conclusion.

I understand the argument that Labor will close the gap.   But I think you are a little over exuberant in your estimation.

The Tories may be rising towards their 2017 level but remember during the campaign they were averaging higher than they eventually got. Not impossible they could undershoot this time.

The polling average also significantly underestimated the Labour share, in fact it got worse towards the end of the campaign.

Although I don't think we'll necessarily see a repeat of 2017 polling errors it's not an unreasonable assumption.

[Devout Centrist]

Don't focus too much on the vote share, remember this is derived from universal swing. Instead, look at the general seat count. I expect it to be in the neighborhood, especially if the SNP do better this time.

This is the Peak Banter result in my opinion.

[thumb21]

My feeling is that the final pv will be something along the lines of:

41% Con
36% Lab
11% LDem
4% SNP
4% Brx
2% Grn

How that translates into seats depends on who's model you are using (and if I get time I'll have a more detailed look at each seat) but seems to me like a slight Tory majority, or a big enough minority to still govern.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think Labour will surprise by minimizing the losses, and that we will end with a hung parliament because Tories lose too many seats in Scotland.

[Blair]

I think Labour will surprise by minimizing the losses, and that we will end with a hung parliament because Tories lose too many seats in Scotland.

Latest poll has the Scottish Tories getting the same % vote as last time; it's been forgotten that for a lot of these seats you don't need 50% to win. You just need to get a combination of the unionist vote & the Brexit Vote.

[Pericles]

I think Labour will surprise by minimizing the losses, and that we will end with a hung parliament because Tories lose too many seats in Scotland.

Latest poll has the Scottish Tories getting the same % vote as last time; it's been forgotten that for a lot of these seats you don't need 50% to win. You just need to get a combination of the unionist vote & the Brexit Vote.

SNP is on 44% though, so the Tories could lose perhaps half their seats in Scotland.

[mileslunn]

Using electoral calculus and guessing percentage vote, I get the following

Tories: 340
Labour: 228
LibDem 15
SNP 44
PC 4
Green 1

Best case Tory scenario

Tories: 367
Labour: 206

Best case Labour scenario

Tories 316
Labour 252

I think Tories could go as high as 380 seats if things go right from them while Labour as low as 180 seats.  For best case Labour scenario, that sounds about right.  I think chances of Labour beating the 262 they got in 2017 is close to nil while Tories at worse will perform just below 2017 in seats. 

[Boobs]

My completely unprompted, amateurish and Yank prediction. Roast me. I don't have the energy to calculate the seat count.

[Tender Branson]

47% Conservatives
29% Labour
14% LibDems
  4% SNP
  2% Greens
  2% Brexit
  2% Others

CON majority of 101 seats.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Revising my (optimistic) prediction from the beginning of the campaign.

Conservatives about 340
Labour about 220
Lib Dems about 20
SNP about 45
Plaid about 5
Greens 1 or 2
Northern Ireland parties 18

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Nationwide Results

Con 330 seats 41.8%
Lab 242 seats 36.5%
LibDem 9 seats 7.6%
SNP 46 seats 4%
UKIP 0 seats 3.9%
Green 1 seat 2.5%
PC 3 seats 0.6%

NI 18 seats (duh) 2%

Other 1 seat 1.1% (Bercow)

Very narrow Tory majority (yes, I did say 330 on purpose)

I wouldn't mind seeing a hung parliament though.

330 wasn’t too far off last time. I think I’ll go with it again. A bit more detailed on the seats than last time, but no PV at this time.

England
Tories: 316
Labour: 193
Lib Dems: 21 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (East Devon)
(Speaker: 1)
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 5
Tories: 5
Labour: 2 (Edinburgh South, K&C)

Wales
Labour: 25
Tories: 9
PC: 4 (incl. Ynys Mon)
Lib Dems: 2 (B&R, Ceredigion)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 9 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

UK Total
Tories: 330
Labour: 220
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 28
DUP: 9
(SF: 6)
PC: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Independent: 1
(Speaker: 1)

[thumb21]

Great Britain results:
Conservative - 42% (-2%) - 322 seats (+5)
Labour - 37% (-4%) - 250 seats (-12)
Liberal Democrats - 11% (+3%) - 11 seats (-1)
Brexit - 4% (+4%) - 0 seats (-)
SNP - 4% (+1%) - 43 seats (+8)
Greens - 2% (-) - 1 seat (-)
Plaid - 1% (-) - 4 seats (-)

[Devout Centrist]

Revising my prediction ever so slightly:

[jaichind]

Revising my prediction ever so slightly:

You think the SNP will lose seats ?

[Tintrlvr]

Revising my prediction ever so slightly:

You think the SNP will lose seats ?

Especially: to whom? Those results would suggest Labour surging in Scotland at the SNP's expense, but regardless of the accuracy of general polling nationwide, polling in Scotland certainly doesn't suggest Labour gains there...

[CumbrianLefty]

Its now being speculated that the SNP may drop a few more seats to the Tories.

(though personally I will believe that when I actually see it)

[Oryxslayer]

Its now being speculated that the SNP may drop a few more seats to the Tories.

(though personally I will believe that when I actually see it)

The SNP are going to go up in votes since 2017, that is as close to guaranteed as one can get. The problem is that these  votes are not efficiently distributed. This is an oversimplification, but half of the gains appear to be from 2015 voters who dropped off in 2017, and half are 2017 Labour voters. Both of these groups are concentrated in the SNP's new base of support: the urbanized strip between Glasgow and Edinburgh. This points to them getting 5 seats automatically: four from Labour and Stirling, and then potentially Renfrewshire East and Coatbridge as well. Those four Labour gains would have been five if they didn't throw away Kirkcaldy. So, lets say they are at +6.

Then we look at the other side  of the column. The Lib-Dems are  also up in Scotland on 2017, their vote is highly concentrated in about 8 or 9 seats, only and only a handful of those are realistic opportunities. So North East Fife could fall from it's effective tie last time - especially since the  unionists won the vote here and have a clear party to rally behind. Perth and North Perthshire was also extremely tight last time, and it's the last SNP in the highlands, an area which has become increasingly hostile to the SNP since 2014. So maybe the Tories pick that one up this time. The we have Central Ayrshire and Argyll & Butte, two more rural-ish seats that the SNP could face headwinds against a more tactical unionist vote. Finally, the Tories are supposedly getting positive signs from Edinburgh SW and Lanark & Hamilton East, two more suburban seats,though they are  both inside the SNP's urban corridor. If the Tories are seeing promising signs in these seats, then perhaps Renfrewshire East isn't in as much danger as it appears. So, lets say the SNP is down 2, with the  potential for more from this group.

This leaves them on net 4, with 39 seats. Not the most impressive if polarization is as strong as rumored. But that the thing, it's rumors so we shall see.

[Helsinkian]

Great Britain

Conservatives 348
Labour 216
SNP 41
LibDems 20
PC 5
Green 1
Speaker 1

Northern Ireland

DUP 9
SF 5
SDLP 2
Alliance 1
UUP 1

[bigic]

My prediction:
- Hung parliament
- Lib Dems try to do a deal with Labour, and fail
- Lib Dems now try to do a deal with the Tories, a faction of Tories rebel over the demand for 2nd referendum which means another failure
- New elections?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Country by Country Breakdown:

England
Tories: 316
Labour: 193
Lib Dems: 21 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (East Devon)
(Speaker: 1)
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 45
Tories: 6
Lib Dems: 5
Labour: 3 (Incl. Edinburgh South; K&C)

Wales
Labour: 23
Tories: 11
PC: 4 (incl. Ynys Mon)
Lib Dems: 2 (B&R, Ceredigion)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 2 (Belfast East and North Down)

UK Total
Tories: 333
Labour: 219
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 28
DUP: 8
(SF: 6)
PC: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2
Greens: 1
Independent: 1
(Speaker: 1)

Aontu will keep their deposit in Foyle and Mebyon Kernow will keep theirs in St Austell and Newquay.