|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2020, 11:06:07 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Should've left the Pangolins alone)
  UK General Election Prediction Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 Print
Poll
Question: 'Not another one...'
#1
Conservative Majority
#2
Conservatives largest party
#3
Labour Majority
#4
Labour largest party
#5
Liberal Democrats largest party
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: UK General Election Prediction Thread  (Read 13310 times)
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 971
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2019, 11:54:18 am »

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

Were six weeks out from the  poll and the campaigns have not even started. If you are making a prediction now, some chunk of any prediction will be based on hope and desire.

The thread is a prediction thread.

I think  the Political Betting Blog reference gives a reasonable basis for the hope.

I think Farage  could blow things up.  It is duty of his party to cqontrol him.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: November 03, 2019, 12:27:22 pm »

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

Were six weeks out from the  poll and the campaigns have not even started. If you are making a prediction now, some chunk of any prediction will be based on hope and desire.

The thread is a prediction thread.

I think  the Political Betting Blog reference gives a reasonable basis for the hope.

I think Farage  could blow things up.  It is duty of his party to cqontrol him.

I'm not arguing with you, I'm just pointing out that any prediction this far out has very little data regarding the situation in 6 weeks. So there will always be a bit of hope. For comparisons sake, the Spanish election is in one week, so polls are fairly accurate.

Like for example, farage today announced he won't stand for a seat. That throws a wrench in a prediction based purely on yesterday's data, no matter what that prediction is.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: November 04, 2019, 02:56:07 pm »

I've made some constituency-by-constituency predictions I'd like to post but (by their nature) they are a bit long and could be construed as spammy - basically I wanted to make sure beforehand there were no objections (I shall construe silence as a lack of objection).
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 62,998
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: November 04, 2019, 03:04:41 pm »

That kind of thing has always been encouraged here. Fire away.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: November 04, 2019, 03:47:11 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 04:44:09 pm by DaWN »

I'll begin with a few caveats

- This is obviously very early and a lot can change in the next five weeks.
- At least one seat I rate Safe will change hands. That I guarantee.
- I've tried to keep this absolutely objective and I welcome people pointing out when I'm failing in that.
- Colours in the text will go off the 2017 result not the current MP (apart from Brecon & Radnorshire when I get to it)

We'll start with London:
Barking - Safe Labour
Battersea - Tossup. Obviously a narrow win for Labour last time, but given its a very remainy area the Lib Dems will give it a go, and there are a lot of rather wealthy bits for the Tories to mine. Genuine tossup, whether two or three-way (probably two). Lab hold gun to my head.
Beckenham - Safe Tory. Yawn
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - Safe Labour. Hughes was the only reason it wasn't Labour for that long and when the bloom came off that rose, it reverted to form.
Bethnal Green & Bow - Safe Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford - Safe Tory
Brent Central - Safe Labour. lol Remember when the Lib Dems held this? Doubt they'll bother but you never know. Only question here is the margin though. And even then I doubt it'll be much of a question.
Brent North - Safe Labour.
Brentford & Isleworth - Safe Labour.
Bromley & Chislehurst - Safe Tory. Boooooring
Camberwell & Peckham - Safe Labour. The Lady Who's Fault All Of This Is will win by miles, unless she retires, in which case whichever Corbynite loon the local party drags up will win by miles instead.
Carshalton & Wallington - Likely Lib Dem. Hardly prime Lib Dem territory anymore but difficult to see them losing this when they're doubling their vote share nationwide.
Chelsea & Fulham - Lean Tory. Where the Lib Dem vote comes from/to what extent might end up being key here but I think the Tories will probably hold.
Chingford & Woodford Green - Lean Tory. IDS will get the fight of his life but I think he'll persevere. Would love to be wrong.
Chipping Barnet - Tossup. Labour's challenge here will be to keep losses to the Boys in Yellow to a minimum and to hope the Tories losses to them are high enough. I'd bet on a Tory hold but could go either way.
Cities of London & Westminster - Lean Tory. Why did Chuka move here? Bizarre going from literally the most remain seat in the country where he had a decent personal vote to a seat where the Lib Dems have been irrelevant for yonks. Still, obviously they think something is going on here but I'm not sure if I buy it. Tory hold. Probably.
Croydon Central - Lean Labour. Vote split danger for Labour here. Probably have enough cushion in the majority though. Probably.
Croydon North - Safe Labour
Croydon South - Safe Tory
Dagenham & Rainham - Lean Tory. Oh dear. Cruddas has to hope that Leavers see Labour's position on Brexit the same way Remainers do, otherwise he's in a world of sh!t. Then again, this was the kind of area the Tories actually did improve on in 2017 and they couldn't get the job done then, so... I don't know. Tory gain I think but it'll be close.
Dulwich & West Norwood - Safe Labour. Oh look, that's familiar. Our esteemed local Corbyn Mouthpiece will be re-elected comfortably I think, even if it will be a lot closer than it was last time, above a different party.
Ealing Central & Acton - Safe Labour. The margin will be interesting though.
Ealing North - Safe Labour. yawn.
Ealing Southall - And that theme is carried on...
East Ham - And on...
Edmonton - And on....
Eltham - Likely Labour. Majority isn't enormous and the vote split issue comes up again, but I think Labour hold.
Enfield North - Safe Labour. Ryan calling it quits ended any remaining lingering doubts about the result here.
Enfield Southgate - Tossup. Vote split you say? Well, as with all of the seats, its difficult to say what'll happen, but remember that the Lib Dems will probably take a bit from the Tories as well in a seat like this. Tilts Labour hold but far from certain.
Erith and Thamesmead - Safe Labour. Most likely a yawn
Feltham and Heston - See above
Finchley & Golders Green - Tossup. Hmm. The problem with seats like this is that it is basically impossible to ascertain by how much the Lib Dems will surge and who they'll take votes from, compounded by a Lib Dem MP being parachuted so clearly they think something is up here. So I'm genuinely not sure about this. I guess Tory hold because I have to say something but who knows.
Greenwich & Woolwich - Safe Labour
Hackney North & Stoke Newington - Safe Labour. lol. You-Know-Who wins easily even if it isn't the humungous margin from last time.
Hackney South & Shoreditch - Safe Labour. A real large amount of middle class hippies who are a key target group for the Lib Dems in this seat... but also a lot of deprived natural Labour territory as well. So Safe Labour but margin could be interesting.
Hammersmith - Safe Labour.
Hampstead & Kilburn - Likely Labour. This was a three-way marginal in 2010, right? Will be interesting to see if that's replicated and to what extent. This isn't exactly the kind of area where Corbynism or Lexit will go down all that well, so Siddiq therefore wins on her own merits with a reduced margin. But she will almost certainly win.
Harrow East - Tossup. Errr, no clue. Students? I guess I'll say Tory hold because I have to say something
Harrow West - Safe Labour. The guy who played the lead role in Blake's 7 wins easily
Hayes & Harlington - Safe Labour. The safest of the Labour 'Big Four'. Obviously they're all safe, but in a universe where Labour get  decimated in a way they won't in this one, McDonnell is the last to fall. Maybe not a coincidence he's the only one with anything approaching a brain cell.
Hendon - Tossup. See whole thing about who knows how well the Lib Dems will do/where their vote comes from. So unknown. Tory hold if I have to say something. Which I do.
Holborn & St Pancras - Safe Labour. Spineless Underling The Great wins by miles, even if not as many miles as it was last time.
Hornchurch & Upminster - Safe Tory. splat.
Hornsey & Wood Green - Likely Labour. Didn't the Lib Dems do well here locally even before the surge? Can imagine they'll give it a go but that's a hell of a majority to overturn.
Ilford North - Likely Labour. Streeting by a reduced but still fairly solid margin
Ilford South - Likely Labour. Oh lord. If the Lib Dems stand aside for Gapes he might have a shot but I'll admit I'm erring on the side of caution (and hope) here and Labour are basically guaranteed to hold. If they don't then it goes straight to Safe Labour.
Islington North - Safe Labour. Obviously. But if there is a God or deity of any kind reading this - please. PLEASE. PLEASE?!?!
Islington South & Finsbury - Safe Labour. Unlike North, this seat is much more middle class and hippieish. The Lib Dems may well give this a shot and Thornberry's attempts to separate herself from the rest of the Labour frontbench over Brexit has had mixed success. Having said that, Labour hold and it won't be close, but the margin could be interesting. But probably won't honestly.
Kensington - Tossup. Oh dear. With a majority that small normally the Tories would be favoured to retake... but in a very remainy place like this where the Lib Dem vote comes from might be key. And then there's the issue of the Yellows throwing in an incumbent MP so something must be up, right? Very difficult to gauge. Tory gain if there's a gun to my head.
Kingston & Surbiton - Safe Lib Dem
Lewisham Deptford - Safe Labour. The most remainy of the three Lewisham seats by some distance interestingly. Not that it matters.
Lewisham East - Safe Labour. Lib Dems may look at their by-election result and go 'oooh' but they shouldn't.
Lewisham West & Penge - Safe Labour. sleepy
Leyton & Wanstead - Safe Labour. very sleepy
Mitcham & Morden - Safe Labour. very, very sleepy
Old Bexley & Sidcup - Safe Tory. zzzzZzzzzz
Orpington - Safe Tory. zzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzz (although Tory candidate antics might be quite funny)
Poplar & Limehouse - Safe Labour. zzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzz
Putney - Tossup. Can safely label this one under f!ck knows for a variety of reasons. Might call it a Labour gain for bants, but seriously, f!ck knows.
Richmond Park - Safe Lib Dem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas
Romford - lib dem gain i reckon imo tbqh imo (Safe Tory for the sarcasm-deficient)
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Safe Tory. Boringly Tory seat will produce a boringly Tory result
Streatham - Safe Labour. Had Chuka stood his ground this could have been interesting. He didn't, and therefore it won't be. It is, of course, the most remain seat in the country which the Lib Dems will use to make leeway but I can't see them actually winning. Think a result more similar to 2010 than 2017 though. Labour... gain? hold? Labour win by any rate
Sutton & Cheam - Likely Tory. Leave, but only marginally, so maybe the Lib Dems could give it a go? The 2018 locals were a bit sh!t for them in an area that's always delivered for them, but that was pre-surge. Almost certainly a Tory hold but a glimmer of an upset exists.
Tooting - Safe Labour. Khan't see any way the former Mayor's seat flips. Ha I amuse even myself.
Tottenham - Safe Labour. verrrryyyy booooring (although this is my sleeper pick for the largest majority in London given Lammy probably won't struggle with remainers like a lot of his colleagues may)
Twickenham - Safe Lib Dem. Obviously.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip - Likely Tory. That's a much smaller majority than I remember it being but Boris is safer than he looks. None of the other parties quite have a winning coalition here - too rich for Labour, too Brexity for the Lib Dems, not quite insane enough  for The Traitor's vehicle. So Boris wins, even if it's a bit embarassing.
Vauxhall - Safe Labour. Still can't believe Hoey managed to win so easily last time. What the f!ck was everyone thinking. Anyway, I'd go as far to say that the Lib Dems might even have been favoured here had the incumbent stood for re-election. But she retired, and therefore Labour will hold easily.
Walthamstow - Safe Labour. zzzz
West Ham - Safe Labour. zzzzz
Westminster North - Safe Labour
Wimbledon - Lean Tory. Tory hold I think, but will be close either way and could produce a bizarre result. Couldn't everywhere.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: November 04, 2019, 05:17:00 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 09:55:32 pm by Oryxslayer »


I'll throw my two cents  onto the  pile because London, despite her vote splits, seems to be rather easy to call seats for this area in particular. I agree on mostly everything, with one exception and one necessary mention. I general it 'feels' like both with polling subsamples and with the London breakdown that the Tory vote is going to hold up better in the leave'y bits but their vote in what I will call 'the slice' drops thanks to Brexit. There  is a reason why all the remainer tories and new LDs are fleeing to there, its the region that best suits their electorate.

From here on out I will refer to a GIS snip from a 'brexit-weighted regional swing model' I ran last week. The colors shown do not reflect my opinions.



Most of the tossups that you mentioned are tossups here with flips like Enfield Southgate on the map being rather marginal. So lets just ignore that part and go to may main point: 'the slice.' When looking at london one needs to be inquisitive where exactly is the LD surge coming from and most likely to crest. The two obvious places to eliminate are all the visible minority labour seats and the brexity tory seats. We should therefore  be looking at the  white parts of London - which have historically correlated well with Tory voting. It should come at no surprise that 'the slice' is very white. These places are all leafy-wealthy-semi-suburbs/neighborhoods  that contrast oh so starkly with the poverty and high rents of Labours side of london. Then you have the city itself which is a financial district on top of the high wealth of Westminster and the rest of 'the slice.' While I hate the population distortions, the map below nicely highlights how the wealthy parts of London stand out with the rest of the city.



Oh, and these areas all went hard for Remain. It seems clear that 'the slice' is where the LD surge is most likely to manifest - even if the LDs end up falling back to 10% in the polls. Now, I don't agree with everything my swing model says goes orange, I made the  model just out of curiosity after all. However I think the following seats are all within the potential splash zone as Tory voters become LDs at a near 1:1 ratio: Battersea, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Kensington, Putney, Richmond Park, and Wimbledon. Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Hammersmith, Sutton and Cheam, and Vauxhall all have low potential to join the list, but the LDs 'all-or-nothing' style of resource investment probably leave them by the wayside. Theres a reason who Chuka moved out of the minority constituencies and into the rich remainer strip. Its also why Esher and Walton can't be seriously written off either, since it's just the same region only extending beyond the greater city limits. Honestly, these constituencies remind me a lot of the old GOP slices into West Houston and North Dallas: leafy, wealthy, semi-suburbs/neighborhoods who now are all represented by democrats.

However, the LDs are also eating into labour in London, so lets get to the necessary mention: Barnet. The income and racial map of London shows that the Enfield/Barnet region is mostly where I feel these votes will be coming from - along with 2017 labour votes within 'the slice.' You had every Barnet seat as a tossup, and I agree, because this is Corbyn's great thorn in his side. The region like every other in London should be becoming more  accustomed to not voting for Tories: it voted for Remain, and has a sizable labour presence initially. The problem of course is the Jewish vote. Corbyn's labour's unpopularity is most acute with this group, who has a sizable pull in Barnet. There is a reason why Labour slid backwards here in the last local elections. A community that is steadfast in the 'never-corbyn' camp and not satisfied with going back to blue is an opening for the LDs. Considering there is a good number of wealthy whites in the region initially who will be flipping for the LDs regardless of the Jewish vote, one can see why the LDs have put the three seats on their target list. Of course we won't know how this region feels unless there s a polls specifically of the council district, and swing models won't pick up the LDs pouring resources into the region. So tossups all around are appropriate.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: November 04, 2019, 07:05:51 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 07:09:34 pm by DaWN »

South East:

Aldershot - Safe Tory. Yawn. (This might end up being a theme of this one btw)
Arundel & South Downs - As above.
Ashford - As above
Aylesbury - As above
Banbury - As above
Basingstoke - As above
Beaconsfield - Safe Tory. Grieve is standing again as an indpendent endorsed by the Lib Dems but this is a fanatically Tory area that was only marginally Remain in the first place.
Bexhill & Battle - See Basingstoke, et. al.
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton - As above
Bracknell - Safe Tory, especially now that Lee has buggered off. Was definitely the right move, this was never going to be winnable.
Brighton, Kemptown - Safe Labour, mainly because this is about as unfriendly territory for the Tories as you can get at the moment and the Lib Dems and the Greens will probably give it a miss (the former has better targets nationwide and the latter will want to throw everything at protecting Lucas).
Brighton, Pavillion - Safe Green. Having said what I did above, Lucas will win and it won't be close.
Buckingham - Safe Tory. Hey, these voters actually get to participate in the democratic process for once!
Canterbury - Tossup. How much the Lib Dems improve by and where that vote comes from will be key here. Given Labour's core in Canterbury itself which is probably far from bad Lib Dem territory, I'd wager on a Tory gain but Labour obviously aren't out.
Chatham & Aylesford - See Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, et. al.
Chesham & Amersham - As above
Chichester - As above
Crawley - Lean Tory. In a such a Leaver seat the Lib Dems will be a non-entity, meaning this will be a straight Tory-Labour fight, one I'm inclined to give to the incumbent. And I might be being a bit too generous to Labour. Maybe.
Dartford - See Chichester, et. al. (This used to be Key Marginal Seat Dartford if you can believe it)
Dover - Likely Tory. See Crawley but a larger majority and more heavily for Leave.
East Hampshire - See Dartford, et. al.
East Surrey - As above
Eastbourne - Tossup. Lloyd rejoined the Lib Dems when the election was called and he's standing again. How he plans to reconcile this seat's leaviness with the national party I have no idea but if anyone can do it its him. Tilts Tory gain for now though.
Eastleigh - Safe Tory. Fool's gold for the Lib Dems.
Epsom & Ewell - See East Surrey, et. al.
Esher & Walton - Safe Tory. Also fool's gold for the Lib Dems. Its Esher for f!cks sake.
Fareham - See Epsom & Ewell, et. al.
Faversham & Mid Kent - As above
Folkestone & Hythe - As above
Gillingham & Rainham - As above
Gosport - As above
Gravesham - As above
Guildford - Likely Tory. Very Remainy and the Lib Dems will use their good local performance as an excuse to give it a go but I highly doubt that will translate into success. Stranger things have happened though.
Hastings & Rye - Tossup. Another genuine Tory-Labour contest but one I think the Tories will just win. Will be close though.
Havant - See Gravesham, et. al.
Henley - As above
Horsham - As above
Hove - Safe Labour. Seems fairly self-explanatory to me.
Isle of Wight - See Horsham, et. al.
Lewes - Likely Tory. Did vote Remain but not by miles. The former MP didn't stand last time though so the close result wasn't artificial like in some other seats like this but LD performance locally hasn't been great. Will be interesting but I think the Tories will be the last ones standing here.
Maidenhead - Safe Tory. Genuinely surprised May is running for re-election here. Maybe she's planning to be the female Ted Heath. Now that would be a fitting end to her story. Obviously she wins.
Maidstone & The Weald - Safe Tory. I'd be fascinated to know how Maidstone itself votes without all the rural bits tagged on, but obviously that wouldn't be big enough for its own seat. Tories therefore win in perpituity.
Meon Valley - See Isle of Wight, et. al.
Mid Sussex - As above
Milton Keynes North - Tossup. Another of those Blue-Red seats that I expect to be Blue at the end but could go either way.
Milton Keynes South - As above.
Mole Valley - See Mid Sussex, et. al.
New Forest East - As above
New Forest West - As above
Newbury - As above
North East Hampshire - As above
North Thanet - As above
North West Hampshire - As above
Oxford East - Safe Labour. Not much to say about. Lib Dems will make second I think but certainly won't be close.
Oxford West & Abingdon - Likely Lib Dem. Almost certainly an easy win for Moran.
Portsmouth North - Safe Tory. And the award for MP with the most upper class name goes to...
Portsmouth South - Tossup. A Labour-Tory marginal last time but the seat's LD history might make them give it a go and complicate things. Tory gain if forced to choose but I honestly don't know.
Reading East - Lean Labour. Very Remainy but its difficult to say if the LDs will improve here and who they'll take votes from. This is much friendlier territory for Labour than a lot of the other seats they took in 2017 so i think they're favoured for now.
Reading West - Lean Tory. Leavey seat where I think the Tories will be able to come out on top.
Reigate - See North West Hampshire, et. al.
Rochester & Strood - Safe Tory. Remember the by-election? Fun times they were. Not really though.
Romsey & Southampton North - Safe Tory. Margin might be a bit interesting but no doubt about the victor.
Runnymede & Weybridge - See Reigate, et. al.
Sevenoaks - As above
Sittingbourne & Sheppey - As above
Slough - Safe Labour. No issues for them here I think. It's still Slough after all.
South Thanet - Likely Tory. Brexit vote split is the path to Labour victory here and I don't think that will happen. Can't rule it out categorically though.
South West Surrey - Safe Tory. Rhyming Slang wins by miles. The fight for second place might be interesting.
Southampton Itchen - Tossup. Very, VERY close last time and in a leavey seat the LDs won't be relevant, which will lead to a Tory-Labour fight. I think the Tories will come out on top but neither result would surprise.
Southampton Test - Safe Labour. Little to say here.
Spelthorne - See Sittingbourne & Sheppey, et. al.
Surrey Heath - As above
Tonbridge & Malling - As above
Tunbridge Wells - As above
Wantage - As above
Wealden - As above
Winchester - Tossup. Very Remainy seat where the Lib Dems did relatively well in 2017. They have a lot going for them here but the majority is very big. Lib Dem gain if forced to guess but it will probably be close.
Windsor - See Wealden, et. al.
Witney - As above
Woking - As above
Wokingham - Lean Tory. Were you surprised out to find this seat voted Remain? And it wasn't close either? I certainly was. Anyway, as much as I'd love Redwood to go down, I doubt it'll happen. Just making the old fart actually have to campaign will be victory enough though. Lib Dems did make quite a lot of gains in May though, so I don't think he's entirely safe.
Worthing East & Shoreham - Lean Tory. Was surprisingly close in 2017 but I don't think that will be repeated. I'll be cautious and say its only Lean though.
Worthing West - Safe Tory. Was rather less close last time.
Wycombe - See Woking, et. al.
Logged
President Pericles
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,100

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: November 04, 2019, 09:28:05 pm »

Oh yeah it's good news Kate Hoey is going, really bizarre to have a hard Brexiteer Labour MP in a 78% Remain seat. If she had run I'd probably have rotted for the LibDems here.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: November 04, 2019, 09:48:12 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 07:28:44 am by Oryxslayer »


No longer going to make a  big comment because once you leave london it gets harder for a yank to analyze seat-by-seat results. So I make one comment: there are a lot of places in the SE and SW where the LD floor is going to be high, but not high enough to pass the Tories. If the LDs have a moment, or surge (which is a big if) look for it in Surrey and neighboring seats to the north, Devon/Cornwall, and Hertfordshire. May could very well end up with a Portillo moment on her hands if this very unlikely situation occurs. Similarly, if the Tories retain their big lead or have a Leave surge, keep an eye on North Wales, the Non-Leeds York region in general, the Tees Valley seats, and maybe even a Sunderland seat, which would be fun come election night. Labour lacks a surge zone unless they take the lead: their hope is to just push back and hold what was won last time.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2019, 06:27:19 am »

South West:

Bath - Safe Lib Dem. I hope I don't have to explain why.
Bournemouth East - Likely Tory. Relatively close last time but I doubt that'll come to anything.
Bournemouth West - Likely Tory. As above.
Bridgwater & Somerset West - Safe Tory. zzzzzz.
Bristol East - Safe Labour. Margin might be interesting though.
Bristol North West - Likely Labour. A seat that has passed the Tories by I think. Could be interesting if Labour collapse but otherwise I think they'll be fine here.
Bristol South - Safe Labour. Margin probably won't be interesting either.
Bristol West - Safe Labour. Second most Remain seat in the country so the Lib Dems will make a push for second, but won't get any further.
Camborne & Redruth - Lean Tory. If Labour can get tactical voting on their side they might be in with a chance. But whether they can do that with the Lib Dem improvement and Corbyn's endless uselesness is very much an open question.
Central Devon - See Bridgwater & Somerset West
Cheltenham - Lean Lib Dem gain. Very Remainy seat where the Lib Dems had a rare good result in 2017. If they aren't winning this they aren't doing well nationwide.
Christchurch - See Central Devon, et. al.
Devizes - As above
East Devon - Safe Tory. That independent that made it relatively close last time is giving it another go but as Swire is throwing in the towel I don't think she'll get any traction.
Exeter - Safe Labour. Has Bradshaw been reselected yet? I certainly hope he has.
Filton & Bradley Stoke - Lean Tory. Closer than I remember. I think the Tories will be favoured here but where an improved LD share comes from might be key.
Forest of Dean - See Devizes, et. al.
Gloucester - Likely Tory. I'm fairly certain the Tories will be the last ones standing here.
Kingswood - See Forest of Dean, et. al.
Mid Dorset & North Poole - As above
Newton Abbot - As above
North Cornwall - Safe Tory. Only close last time because the old MP ran again, which he isn't this time.
North Devon - Safe Tory. As above, pretty much to the word, even though the Lib Dems performed decently at the locals.
North Dorset - See Newton Abbot, et. al.
North East Somerset - Safe Tory. He's inevitable. Don't kid yourself otherwise.
North Somerset - Safe Tory, depressingly so. F!cking Liam f!cking Fox.
North Swindon - Likely Tory. Labour will be focusing on the other seat I don't think this will matter much.
North Wiltshire - See North Dorset, et. al.
Plymouth Moor View - Likely Tory. But basically Safe frankly. Labour will be focusing on holding P,S&D and this was a very Leavey seat (which you'll notice I'm not really using as a justification for somewhere being averse to Labour, but sometimes that is the case).
Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport - Lean Labour. Large majority last time and the hliarity of Ann "Cleverdicks" Widdecome standing for The Traitor's vehicle might pose a vote split problem for the Tories. Not safe for Corbyn's Happy Brigade though.
Poole - See North Wiltshire, et. al.
Salisbury - As above
Somerton & Frome - As above
South Dorset - As above
South East Cornwall - As above
South Swindon - Lean Tory. Whoever wins this will be the largest party I think. So Tory on that basis. But a Labour win would not surprise.
South West Devon - See South East Cornwall, et. al.
South West Wiltshire - As above
St Austell & Newquay - Likely Tory. If one of Labour and the Lib Dems can consolidate the other's vote then maybe this could flip but I highly doubt it.
St Ives - Lean Tory. Andrew George running again is the only reason this is competitive - there's quite a bit of friendly territory for the Lib Dems here (the seat's namesake especially) but overall its just not a natural seat for them anymore.
Stroud - Tossup. David Drew is the one person who could defy gravity for Labour here and the Tories haven't exactly chosen a stellar candidate but in the end I think the national picture will determine this one. Tilts Tory gain on that basis.
Taunton Deane - See South West Wiltshire, et. al.
Tewkesbury - As above
The Cotswolds - As above
Thornbury & Yate - As above
Tiverton & Honiton - As above
Torbay - As above
Totnes - Lean Tory. This is a Leaver area but with a bit of tactical voting Woollaston might not be done for yet. Still clearly the underdog though but local results were decent for the Lib Dems. Will be interesting.
Truro & Falmouth - Lean Tory. If Labour can consolidate some tactical voting then this might be an opportunity, but that's a dubious assertion and quite a few students will be home by this point.
Wells - Lean Tory. Similar to St Ives in that it was only close last time because of the old MP running again, who is running once more this time. Not natural territory but if they're having a good night nationwide, that plus Munt's personal vote might get them over the line, and some decent local results might give them hope. Probably not though.
West Devon & Torridge - See Torbay, et. al.
West Dorset - As above
Weston-supre-Mare - As above
Yeovil - As above
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,973
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2019, 06:55:21 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 07:01:56 am by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

I wonder how somebody in the 90's would react to you saying that Anne Widdecombe is on the same ticket as the Revolutionary Communist Party's Claire Fox.

I wonder if Christopher Chode will suffer a greater than expected swing against him after his parliamentary antics (although he is obviously safe - I think he received the best Tory vote in the UK last election)

I'm more bullish on you with the Libs down SW - I think Andrew George is favoured this time in St Ives; for one example - he can easily squeeze the fairly large 2017 Labour vote and the old Community Liberal tradition is clearly not dead (as I believed it was before the last locals). I also think Cornwall is one of those areas that voted Brexit, but are not defined by that as much as other places, if that makes sense.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2019, 08:53:05 am »

I'm more bullish on you with the Libs down SW - I think Andrew George is favoured this time in St Ives; for one example - he can easily squeeze the fairly large 2017 Labour vote and the old Community Liberal tradition is clearly not dead (as I believed it was before the last locals). I also think Cornwall is one of those areas that voted Brexit, but are not defined by that as much as other places, if that makes sense.

I'm probably being overly cautious on St Ives, George is definitely in with a good shot. I based my on rating on the fact that it is Brexity and St Ives/Penzance can't outvote the rest of the seat on their own, plus tactical voting could be unpredictable. Obviously my mind would be far from blown if he won.

Elsewhere in Cornwall I'm not so sure, especially as Labour did eclipse them in a few seats in 2017. Some of the margins and second places will be interesting but other than St Ives I don't think there's any opportunities down there.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: November 05, 2019, 09:06:30 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 09:31:11 am by DaWN »

Eastern:

Basildon & Billericay - Safe Tory. Yawn.
Bedford - Tossup. Fairly standard Blue-Red marginal. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Braintree - See Basildon & Billericay
Brentwood & Ongar - As above
Broadland - As above
Broxbourne - As above
Bury St Edmunds - As above
Cambridge - Lean Labour. Very Remainy with a lot of prime Lib Dem territory against a result that was probably inflated in 2017 due to that election's unique circumstances. Local results have been decent but not spectacular for the Lib Dems. Zeichner is favoured to hold but things might get interesting if the Yellows have a better than expected night.
Castle Point - See Bury St Edmunds, et. al.
Central Suffolk & Ipswich North - As above
Chelmsford - Safe Tory. Didn't the LDs do well locally here? Obviously Tory hold but the margin might be interesting.
Clacton - See Central Suffolk & Ipswich North, et. al.
Colchester - As above
Epping Forest - As above
Great Yarmouth - As above
Harlow - As above
Harwich & North Essex - As above
Hemel Hempstead - Safe Tory. Margin will be indicative of the national picture though.
Hertford & Stortford - See Harwich & North Essex, et. al.
Hertsmere - As above
Hitchin & Harpenden - As above
Huntingdon - As above
Ipswich - Tossup. Same as Bedford, right down to a Tory gain if I was forced to choose.
Luton North - Safe Labour
Luton South - Likely Labour. The Lib Dems standing down for Shuker might given him the tiniest, winsiest glimmers of hope, but I'm frankly being very generous to him here.
Maldon - See Huntingdon, et. al.
Mid Bedfordshire - As above
Mid Norfolk - As above
North East Bedfordshire - As above
North East Cambridgeshire - As above
North Norfolk - Likely Tory gain. Without Lamb this is practically gone. Sorry. (Having said that the local elections results weren't bad at all so maybe there's a glimmer of hope...)
North West Cambridgeshire - See NE Cambridgeshire, et. al.
North West Norfolk - As above
Norwich North - Tossup. Another standard Blue-Red marginal. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Norwich South - Safe Labour. Margin may be interesting but probably not.
Peterborough - Tossup. The Brexit vote has declined since the by-election which was the main reason Labour won. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Rayleigh & Wickford - See NW Norfolk, et. al.
Rochford & Southend East - Lean Tory. That's being cautious though, despite it being close last time, I think the Tories will win.
Saffron Walden - See Rayleigh & Wickford, et. al.
South Basildon & East Thurrock - As above
South Cambridgeshire - Likely Tory. Allen retiring probably doesn't inspire much confidence for the Lib Dems, despite an impressive local performance.
South East Cambridgeshire - Safe Tory. Margin will interest.
South Norfolk - See South Basildon & East Thurrock, et. al.
South Suffolk - As above
South West Bedfordshire - As above
South West Hertfordshire - As above
South West Norfolk - As above
Southend West - As above
St Albans - Lean Lib Dem gain. A genuinely impresive performance in 2017, a very Remainy seat and a distinctly unimpressive incumbent lead to a fairly easy conclusion. Not quite game set and match for the Tories but if the Lib Dems aren't winning this, then its likely they aren't doing so well nationwide.
Stevenage - Lean Tory. Marginal I think will go the Tories way but difficult to say with TOO much confidence.
Suffolk Coastal - See Southend West, et. al.
Thurrock - Safe Tory. Might be one of the seats where The Traitor's vehicle might genuinely contest but I'm not sure they'll get far.
Watford - Tossup. Blue-Red marginal last time but the Lib Dems have a lot of local strength they might finally be able to call upon. It is a Leave seat but only marginally. Will be interesting. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Waveney - See Suffolk Coastal, et. al.
Welywn Hatfield - Likely Tory
West Suffolk - See Waveney, et. al.
Witham - As above
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: November 05, 2019, 10:12:18 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 11:20:15 am by Oryxslayer »

I'm not sure why you are sleeping on Colchester. That model I referenced has the seat going Orange marginally (so tossup) and a separate model a ran two weeks ago to test the oppositions baseline has the seat flipping to someone not-tory. The Lib Dems retain strength locally, held the seat before the coalition, and the seat is only 51-49 for leave, so the oranges still have a healthy base to pull from for their potential plurality. Its also one  of the  many seats in the greater SW/London region that saw a near 1:1 Lib-Dem to labour transfer last cycle since they were the viable remainer ticket. Maybe there is something candidate-wise that just pure statistics cannot pick up.

Also the Cambridge seats are going just be...weird. We had a constituency poll (obvious MOE implied) a while back that showed Cambirdge itself was a marginal Labour lead, and today we have one showing SE Cambridgeshire is a 10% Tory lead over the Libs. I wouldn't therefore be surprised if the  more favorable S Cambridgeshire is a close race between team orange and team blue.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: November 05, 2019, 02:19:50 pm »

Wales:

Aberavon - Safe Labour. And There Shan't Be Much Rejoicing.
Aberconwy - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose. Guto Bebb is a very silly name isn't it.
Alyn & Deeside - Lean Labour. If they're losing this it's a bad night for them, which is far from impossible but not super likely.
Arfon - Tossup. Plaid hold if forced to choose. Will definitely be close and Labour aren't going to let them run away with it.
Blaenau Gwent - Safe Labour. Reasoning: It's the sodding valleys.
Brecon & Radnoshire - Lean Lib Dem. The incumbent is probably favoured for the same reasons she won in the first place. Not safe though.
Bridgend - Lean Labour. See Alyn & Deeside. Interesting that its a Remain voting seat in the area thats a key marginal. Can't imagine why that might be.
Caerphilly - See Blaenau Gwent
Cardiff Central - Safe Labour. Of course, this is Remain voting and not a marginal. Margin and the fight for second place might be interesting but the winner won't.
Cardiff North - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. I imagine this will be a straightfoward two-way marginal but it is fairly Remainy so a hypothetical Lib Dem improvement/where those votes come from might be key. Or might not.
Cardiff South & Penarth - Safe Labour
Cardiff West - Safe Labour.
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr - Lean Plaid. The majority should hold but if Labour are having a better than expected night then its not out of the question they take this.
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire - Lean Tory. Just looks a bit like that doesn't it. Sometimes reasoning doesn't need to be complex.
Ceredigion - Tossup. Remainy with a history of Liberals but neither the incumbent nor his party have done much to disgrace themselves. Will depend how badly the Labour vote disintegrates and where it goes. Lib Dem gain if forced to choose. (Ignoring the LD-Plaid alliance shenanigans for now)
Clwyd South - Lean Labour. Basically see Alyn & Deeside and Bridgend.
Clwyd West - Lean Tory. See Carmarthen West. Bit of a pattern establishing itself, isn't it?
Cynon Valley - See Caerphilly, et. al.
Delyn - Lean Labour.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Safe Plaid. Probably because none of the other parties have anyone that can pronounce the constituency's name.
Gower - Tossup. The incumbent may be made to Gower away but I think she'll hold on balance. Will probably be close.
Islwyn - See Cynon Valley, et. al.
Llanelli - Safe Labour.
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney - See Islwyn, et. al.
Monmouth - Safe Tory
Montgomeryshire - Safe Tory. (if only Lembit was running, I could do with some comic relief this election)
Neath - Safe Labour
Newport East - Safe Labour
Newport West - Safe Labour
Ogmore - Safe Labour
Pontypridd - See Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, et. al.
Preseli Pembrokeshire - Tossup. I imagine if the incumbent loses he'll be a bit Crabby about it. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Rhondda - See Pontypridd, et. al.
Swansea East - Safe Labour
Swansea West - Safe Labour
Torfaen - Safe Labour
Vale of Clwyd - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose.
Vale of Glamorgan - Lean Tory
Wrexham - Tossup. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Ynys Mon - Lean Labour. At least I think so. This is a weird-arse seat.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2019, 09:48:29 am »

West Midlands:

Aldridge-Brownhills - Safe Tory. Is this the only UK constituency with a Canadian style dash in the title?
Birmingham Edgbaston - Lean Labour. The Tories have a high floor here but the endless 'close but no cigar' stuff here must be beginning to get up their noses as a bit. I suspect it will end up that way again unless Corbyn really self-destructs (and of course that remains a very distinct possibility)
Birmingham Erdington - Likely Labour
Birmingham Hall Green - Safe Labour. Btw I've yet to encounter anyone on the interwebs who actually likes Godsiff but I guess that's a good indication of how opinions on the internet don't decide elections. Take note, any Yanks reading.
Birmingham Hodge Hill - Safe Labour. Unlikely they'll make a Hodge podge of this ho ho ho
Birmingham Ladywood - Safe Labour. Obviously.
Birmingham Northfield - Lean Labour. Not a huge majority but they should be okay.
Birmingham Perry Barr - Safe Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak - Safe Labour
Birmingham Yardley - Safe Labour. Lib Dem vote might actually fall here contrary to what will likely happen nationwide (Hemming was the only reason it somewhat held up last time.) And for those who dislike Phillips, you might want to look away from this one.
Bromsgrove - Safe Tory
Burton - Safe Tory
Cannock Chase - Safe Tory
Coventry North East - Safe Labour
Coventry North West - Lean Labour. Majority might be deceptive but I couldn't say for sure.
Coventry South - Lean Labour. As above.
Dudley North - Lean Tory gain. Think that Austin's luck will probably run out this time if he stands again. It doesn't look like he will.
Dudley South - Safe Tory
Halesowen & Rowley Regis - Lean Tory
Hereford & South Herefordshire - Safe Tory. I have complete faith in the Lib Dems here... to hold onto their deposit. (In all seriousness, the margin might be a bit interesting but it certainly won't be anything resembling close)
Kenilworth & Southam - Safe Tory
Lichfield - Safe Tory
Ludlow - Safe Tory
Meriden - Safe Tory. Nick Timothy was almost selected here. The irony would have been too much.
Mid Worcestershire - Safe Tory
Newcastle-under-Lyme - Lean Tory gain. Pretty certain Labour's luck will run out here too.
North Herefordshire - Safe Tory
North Shropshire - Safe Tory. yaaaaaaaaaaaawn
North Warwickshire - Likely Tory.
Nuneaton - Lean Tory. Frankly that feels generous to Labour though
Redditch - Safe Tory
Rugby - Safe Tory
Shrewsbury & Atcham - Safe Tory
Solihull - Safe Tory. Can't believe they ever didn't hold this.
South Staffordshire - Safe Tory
Stafford - Safe Tory. God, we have so many of these stupid safe seats. What a terrible electoral system.
Staffordshire Moorlands - Safe Tory
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Lean Labour. The least likely to flip of the Stoke seats but still in danger. I think they're just about favoured.
Stoke-on-Trent North - Tossup. Tilts Labour though.
Stoke-on-Trent South - Lean Tory. Would probably be Likely if it wasn't for the priveleged London Tory boy MP but maybe that won't matter now he's the incumbent. I'm not sure this is a very Corbyn-receptive area. Or not. Drat, torn between my hatred of Corbyn and my hatred of priveleged Tory boys.
Stone - Safe Tory
Stourbridge - Safe Tory
Stratford-on-Avon - Safe Tory. These words are beginning to lose all meaning I've typed them so many times
Sutton Coldfield - Safe Tory. But of course.
Tamworth - Safe Tory. Anyone know again good card tricks?
Telford - Tossup. Tilts Tory though.
The Wrekin - Safe Tory. I came in like a Wrekin ball...
Walsall North - Likely Tory. Yeahhh...
Walsall South - Lean Labour
Warley - Safe Labour
Warwick & Leamington - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose.
West Bromwich East - Likely Labour. Glad that Watson was reselected, just because it annoys the Corbynites. Doesn't mean I'd vote for him if I was WBE or that I like him. I wouldn't and I don't.
West Bromwich West - Lean Labour
West Worcestershire - Safe Tory
Wolverhampton North East - Lean Labour
Wolverhampton South East - Safe Labour
Wolverhampton South West - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Worcester - Lean Tory. Labour should have stuck with the woman from London who had a screw or nine loose. They wouldn't have won the seat but it would have been absolutely hilarious.
Wyre Forest - Safe Tory. Wyre do I think this? Well, I'll leave that to you to work out.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,276


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2019, 01:26:46 pm »

Is the dynamic in Montgomeryshire, which you have as Safe Tory, really that different from Brecon & Radnorshire, which you have as Lean LD, (aside from the obvious by-election in the latter)? The incumbent is standing down in the former, and both seats had similar margins in 2017, so just wondering.
Logged
(CT) The Free North
CTRattlesnake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,827
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2019, 02:29:20 pm »

Great analysis and commentary in this thread from all....reminds me of why I joined this site in the first place.
Logged
Justice Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,778
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: November 06, 2019, 02:33:14 pm »

Great analysis and commentary in this thread from all....reminds me of why I joined this site in the first place.

This 100%. Im tempted to shamelessly copy it and do my own analysis although Im much more pessimistic- looking forward to Yorkshire/Scotland predictions.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2019, 02:34:38 pm »

Is the dynamic in Montgomeryshire, which you have as Safe Tory, really that different from Brecon & Radnorshire, which you have as Lean LD, (aside from the obvious by-election in the latter)? The incumbent is standing down in the former, and both seats had similar margins in 2017, so just wondering.

Lib Dem incumbent in B&R, Montgomeryshire voted Leave by a fairly wide margin while it was a narrow one in B&R, Lib Dem activists in west Wales will be sent straight to Ceredigion while B&R is the Lib Dems only seat of interest in East/South Wales, and while the raw vote margin was very similar in 2017, the percentage majority was much higher. If the Lib Dems really reestablish themselves Montgomeryshire might come back into play in an election or two, but I don't see it as competitive this time around.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2019, 02:54:26 pm »

East Midlands (calling some of these seats East Midlands is really quite a stretch but hey):

Amber Valley - Safe Tory
Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.
Bassetlaw - Tossup. Not quite as ugly as Ashfield for Labour but getting there. The incumbent calling it quits doesn't help them here as it does there. Tilts Tory gain.
Bolsover - Safe Labour as long as Skinner runs. When he invevitably leaves Parliament in the only way he was ever going to, it'll probably be a pretty easy Tory gain.
Boston & Skengess - Safe Tory
Bosworth - Safe Tory
Broxtowe - Tossup. Usual caveat about whether the Lib Dems will stand aside for Soubry (looks like they are for now) but in the end I think this will be between the two main parties (unfortunately). Tilts Tory hold.
Charnwood - Safe Tory
Chesterfield - Safe Labour
Corby - Lean Tory. Winnable for Labour if they're having a decent night though
Daventry - Safe Tory
Derby North - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain. Labour are definitely better off without the incumbent (a good pick for the most vile MP in the Commons right now, although Fox, Chope and Blackford run him fairly close) but I still think the Tories will win. Not a done deal of course.
Derby South - Safe Labour. Beckett will be re-elected by a solid but not spectacular margin in the same way she has in every election since 2005.
Derbyshire Dales - Safe Tory
Erewash - Lean Tory. Not much else to say really
Gainsborough - Safe Tory
Gedling - Lean Labour. This might be one of those 'seats that seem safe-ish' but then are lost in a disappointing night and I expect it will be lost if there's a really poor showing for Labour.
Grantham & Stamford - Safe Tory. For some reason whenever I see the surname Boles, I think to The Two Ronnies' Phantom Raspberry Blower of Old London Town. Or maybe its because I watched it the other week. God, these safe seats are bloody boring aren't they.
Harborough - Safe Tory. Yaaaaaawn
High Peak - Tossup. One of the more surprising 2017 gains I think. Labour will hold if they can keep vote bleeding to a minimum. Tories will gain if they can keep vote bleeding to a minimum. If they both succeed or fail at that we're entering god knows territory. Probably tilts Tory gain .
Kettering - Safe Tory. And back to boring.
Leicester East - Safe Labour. Farewell, sweet prince. Although Vaz wasn't sweet, or much of a prince thinking about it... so, just Farewell I suppose.
Leicester South - Safe Labour
Leicester West - Safe Labour
Lincoln - Tossup. See High Peak except delete the surprising gain bit (obviously all Labour gains were surprising in 2017 but you get what I mean...). Tilts Tory gain if you couldn't be bothered to read up.
Loughborough - Lean Tory. I think the majority might be a bit deceptive(ly small). Not a done deal though.
Louth & Horncastle - Safe Tory
Mansfield - Lean Tory. Again not really a great area for Labour these days. The seat was somewhat lost in 2017 because Meale was a crap incumbent but 6,000 vote swings don't happen just because of lazy MPs.
Mid Derbyshire - Safe Tory
Newark - Safe Tory
North East Debyshire - Lean Tory. See Mansfield but delete the crap incumbent bit. Although Engel wasn't exactly an impressive incumbent either.
North West Leicestershire - Safe Tory
Northampton North - Tossup. Tilts Tory hold.
Northampton South - As above
Nottingham East - Safe Labour. Unlike some of the other defectors, Leslie is crap and has absolutely no chance.
Nottingham North - Safe Labour
Nottingham South - Safe Labour
Rushcliffe - Likely Tory. Alas, poor Clarkey. We knew thee well. Incidentally, assuming Skinner wins, that means he'll become Father of the House. A man who hates all the parliamentary procedures and whatnot. As if we needed any more hilarity.
Rutland & Melton - Safe Tory
Sherwood - Lean Tory. I can't be bothered to justify these anymore. It's a semi-marginal Tory seat with a decent but not spectacular majority. Got it?
Sleaford & North Hykeham - Safe Tory
South Derbyshire - Safe Tory
South Holland and the Deepings - Safe Tory
South Leicestershire - Safe Tory
South Northamptonshire - Safe Tory
Wellingborough - Safe Tory
Logged
Tintrlvr
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: November 06, 2019, 03:00:28 pm »

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: November 06, 2019, 03:01:49 pm »

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: November 06, 2019, 03:08:56 pm »

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.

His local party just won 30/35 seats on the Ashfield Council in May, and he nearly won in 2010 as a Lib Dem. I don't think Ashfield can be discussed at least without mentioning the possibility of him winning. Seems likelier than the Tories winning as the Ashfield Independents have basically mopped up the Tory vote locally.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: November 06, 2019, 03:09:54 pm »

Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.

His local party just won 30/35 seats on the Ashfield Council in May, and he nearly won in 2010 on the Lib Dem ticket. *Shrug*

I guess we'll see but local strength doesn't always translate into parliamentary strength, especially for Indies and fourth parties
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines