UK General Election Prediction Thread

[DaWN]

West Bromwich East - Likely Labour. Glad that Watson was reselected, just because it annoys the Corbynites. Doesn't mean I'd vote for him if I was WBE or that I like him. I wouldn't and I don't.

Damn. The Corbynite celebrations tonight will dampen my mood.

No change to rating for the seat and I'd be very glad to see him gone if it wasn't for the minor fact his replacement as Deputy Leader is guaranteed to be much, much worse.

[Boobs]

Here's DaWN's predictions so far, mapped on the capital blank map afleitch provided in the discussion thread.

Colors are safe/likely/lean/tossup-advantage.
Pardon the misalignment of the NAT color spheres with the rest; I added them later.

[DaWN]

Here's DaWN's predictions so far, mapped on the capital blank map afleitch provided in the discussion thread.

Colors are safe/likely/lean/tossup-advantage.
Pardon the misalignment of the NAT color spheres with the rest; I added them later.

This is really cool! (And also really appreciated as there is zero chance I would have the time or patience to do something like it) Thanks!

[DaWN]

Yorkshire & The Humber:

Barnsley Central - Safe Labour
Barnsley East - Safe Labour
Batley & Spen - Lean Labour. The size of the majority last time was probably somewhat inflated by by-election unwind but there's likely enough cushion in it to keep it red for now.
Beverley & Holderness - Safe Tory
Bradford East - Safe Labour
Bradford South - Likely Labour
Bradford West - Safe Labour
Brigg and Goole - Safe Tory. Safe seats are so dull.
Calder Valley - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Cleethorpes - Safe Tory
Colne Valley - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain. Fairly bog standard marginal gained in 2017 that will be a good barometer.
Dewsbury - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose but I do expect it to be close.
Don Valley - Lean Labour
Doncaster Central - Safe Labour
Doncaster North - Safe Labour. Miliband wins by miles and that is a good thing.
East Yorkshire - Safe Tory
Elmet and Rothwell - Safe Tory
Great Grimsby - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain but the incumbent could still come out Onn top.
Halifax - Tossup. Definitely tilts Labour but I think the majority last time may have been deceptive.
Haltemprice & Howden - Safe Tory. Davis wins by miles and that is not a good thing.
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Safe Tory. Margin might be a bit interesting though. Might not. Won't be close.
Hemsworth - Safe Labour
Huddersfield- Safe Labour
Keighley - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Kingston-upon-Hull East - Safe Labour
Kingston-upon-Hull North - Safe Labour
Kingston-upon-Hull West & Hessle - Likely Labour
Leeds Central - Safe Labour. This incumbent's relevancy has been Benn and gone.
Leeds East - Safe Labour. The incumbent will be the next leader of the Labour party, mark my words
Leeds North East - Safe Labour
Leeds North West - Lean Labour. Very Remainy suburban seat but unlike in Sheffield Hallam, the incumbent has been low-profile  and inoffensive, and this is a less friendly seat for the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems won it though.
Leeds West - Safe Labour
Morley and Outwood - Lean Tory. It could be lost but frankly in an area like this, that was very strong for Leave, I think the Tory majority will go up. Not safe though.
Normanton, Pontecraft & Castleford - Safe Labour
Penistone & Stockbridge - Tossup. Simple Blue-Red marginal, Tory gain if forced to choose.
Pudsey - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Richmond - Safe Tory. and begin william hague impression in 3, 2, 1...
Rother Valley - Tossup. Does Tilt Labour, mainly because of vote split issues for the Tories, but this could very easily fall.
Rotherham - Safe Labour
Scarborough & Whitby - Lean Tory. That might be generous to Labour though. It is difficult to say if the 2017 result was an aberration or not but I'm inclined to say yes. Funny how this would be probably be fanatically Tory if it were 200 miles further south.
Sc u nthorpe - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose. Atlas censors it if I don't put the gaps in, which is just hilarious.
Selby & Ainsty - Safe Tory
Sheffield Central - Safe Labour. The fight for second place will be the interesting one.
Sheffield South East - Safe Labour
Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough - Safe Labour
Sheffield, Hallam - Likely Lib Dem gain, for reasons that should be perfectly obvious. Tempted to call this fool's gold for Labour but that would probably be tempting fate a bit too much.
Sheffield, Heeley - Safe Labour
Shipley - Likely Tory. Unfortunately.
Skipton & Ripon - Safe Tory
Thirsk & Malton - Safe Tory
Wakefield - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. The Tories will eventually stop cocking it up here though. Could well  be this time.
Wentworth & Dearne - Safe Labour
York Central - Safe Labour
York Outer - Safe Tory

[Blair]

fwiw Leeds North West was held in 2015 purely because of Greg Mullholland and the very very efficient machine he had- which was overwhelmed by the student vote & Tim Farron being useless. 

[kcguy]

Yorkshire & The Humber:
Penistone & Stockbridge - Tossup. Simple Blue-Red marginal, Tory gain if forced to choose.

Sc u nthorpe - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose. Atlas censors it if I don't put the gaps in, which is just hilarious.

You had to edit the "Sc" constituency, but not the "P" one?

[afleitch]

Sc**nthorpe

EDIT: Wow.

[DaWN]

Ah, Atlas. Where about six or seven obvious trolls who destroy the quality of conversation are happily tolerated but you can't say the name of a prominent English town.

Anyway, moving on.

North West (another stupid region. Nantwich and Carlisle for instance have so little in common its extraordinary):

Altrincham & Sale West - Likely Tory. Very Remainy and with some Lib Dem local success but the parachuted Lib Dem MP made a bit of a fool of herself the other day for complaining about not getting her severance package if she loses in her new seat. Now, I don't think this cock-up by itself is going to change anything (literally nobody will care or remember it even happened by election day) but it doesn't exactly show confidence does it?
Ashton-under-Lyne - Safe Labour
Barrow and Furness - Tossup. Woodcock joined The Independents? I don't remember that happening. Probably because it doesn't matter and wouldn't matter even if he hadn't retired. Anyway, Red-Blue marginal. Tilts Tory gain and it's very possible I'm being generous to Labour. F!ck knows why.
Birkenhead - Safe Labour. Strong enough for Labour that a strong Field showing (very unlikely anyway) won't make the tiniest bit of difference.
Blackburn - Safe Labour
Blackley & Broughton - Safe Labour
Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Lean Tory. A strong lean though.
Blackpool South - Lean Labour. Not a hugely strong lean though.
Bolton North East - Lean Labour
Bolton South East - Safe Labour
Bolton West - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold
Bootle - Safe Labour
Burnley - Safe Labour. Apparently Gordon Birtwistle is going for it again on a pro-Brexit platform? As a Lib Dem? Okey doke. He might make second place. He won't win.
Bury North - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold.
Bury South - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold. This is compounded by the incumbent restanding as an independent. Now obviously he'll come nowhere near to winning and holding his deposit will be a victory for him... but it could become a vote split issue, particularly if there's a Lib Dem surge beyond expectations (not hugely likely because of Idiot Remainers Voting Labour but you never really know). It all leads to a competitive race I feel, but one Labour are just about favoured in.
Carlisle - Lean Tory
Cheadle - Tossup. It will come down to how badly the Labour vote disintegrates and where it goes, but this isn't really a very Boris area is it. Lib Dems also have done well locally but the Tories should not be counted out. Tilts Lib Dem gain.
Chorley - Safe Speaker gain. This system really needs reform. Disenranchising 75,000 people for parliamentary procedure is frankly unacceptable in my eyes.
City of Chester - Likely Labour. This is probably as good as safe though.
Congleton - Safe Labour. Not Fiona Bruce the newsreader btw
Copeland - Lean Tory for basically the same reason it was won and held in the first place. Obviously a Labour win wouldn't amaze me.
Crewe & Nantwich - Tossup. Tory gain if forced to choose
Denton & Reddish - Safe Labour
Eddisbury - Safe Tory. Despite the incumbent changing parties and restanding.
Ellesmere Port & Neston - Safe Labour
Fylde - Safe Tory. I wonder how many parties will Fylde a candidate here
Garston & Halewood - Safe Labour
Halton - Safe Labour
Hazel Groze - Lean Tory. Bizarre result in 2017 in a Leave seat but I guess Manchester suburbia isn't the worst place for the Lib Dems, plus recent local results have been encouraging. Probably won't result in a win but certainly not impossible.
Heywood & Middleton - Likely Labour. In hindsight this by-election was a good predictor of how Brexit would turn out and we all probably should have seen it. Although, even if we had all seen it, it would have required a Labour leader who could be bothered to campaign. I'm still 7/10 for putting him on top of a firework btw.
Hyndburn - Lean Labour
Knowsley - Safe Labour
Lancashire West - Safe Labour
Lancaster & Fleetwood - Lean Labour. Will Lancaster outvote the rest of the seat? I'll say yes but not a done deal.
Leigh - Safe Labour
Liverpool Riverside - Safe Labour
Liverpool Walton - lean tory because it voted leave (Safe Labour for the sarcasm-deficient)
Liverpool Wavertree - Safe Labour
Liverpool West Derby - Safe Labour
Macclesfield - Likely Tory. Holy crap that was way closer than I remembered. Anyway, Tories will almost certainly win for a variety of reasons.
Makerfield - Safe Labour
Manchester Central - Safe Labour. Margin/LD performance might be interesting but no doubt about the result.
Manchester Gorton - Safe Labour
Manchester Withington - Safe Labour. Same caveat as Central though
Morecambe & Lunesdale - Lean Tory
Oldham East & Saddleworth - Safe Labour
Oldham West & Royton - Safe Labour
Pendle - Lean Tory
Penrith & The Border - Safe Tory
Preston - Safe Labour
Ribble Valley - Safe Tory
Rochdale - Safe Labour
Rossendale & Darwen - Lean Tory
Salford & Eccles - Safe Labour
Sefton Central - Safe Labour
South Ribble - Likely Tory
Southport - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold. Lib Dems will probably fall back a bit here. How that affects the Blue/Red vote I'm not sure.
St Helens North - Safe Labour
St Helens South & Whiston - Safe Labour
Stalybridge & Hyde - Likely Labour
Stockport - Safe Labour
Stretford & Urmston - Safe Labour
Tatton - Safe Tory. Unfortunately.
Wallasey - Safe Labour
Warrington North - Safe Labour
Warrington South - Tossup. Tilt Tory gain
Weaver Vale - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold
Westmorland and Lonsdale - Likely Lib Dem. Farron got a scare last time but this time round he's kept a much lower profile and has probably been spending time in the constituency given that scare. Combine this with the national vote increase and he'll probably be fine.
Wigan - Safe Labour
Wirral South - Likely Labour
Wirral West - Lean Labour
Workington - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. Will probably be very close unless one of the two main parties outperforms expectations/Brexit do better than expected.
Worsley & Eccles South - Likely Labour
Wyre & Preston North - Safe Tory. This one won't come down to the Wyre
Wythenshaw & Sale East - Safe Labour

[Epaminondas]

Really nice effort at a breakdown, but sometimes I wonder whether you take the Brexit vote into enough account.

Sc**nthorpe

EDIT: Wow.

That's a joke, right?
Sc**nthorpe.
EDIT: Jeepers it's not. Is this a private joke by Dave?

[DaWN]

Really nice effort at a breakdown, but sometimes I wonder whether you take the Brexit vote into enough account.

My predictions assume a tactical squeeze to the two main parties - you'll notice outside of London and a few select constituencies that are a. very remainy, b. likely to be close or c. both, I'm not taking the LDs into account much either. I'm aware I could be wrong on this but if Brexit looks out of contention in a lot of seats (which they will) I think the votes will go back to whichever of the two main parties the individual voter was already more attached to. Again - could be wrong.

[MillennialModerate]

So does anyone think there is any chance at all that Brexit gets even a single seat? And if so .. where? In a Labour/Leave that has never voted Conservative? In a ultra right wing seat that was a strong Conservative/Leave seat or in a random spot where the vote will be split so many different ways they could sneak across the line?

What’s ironic is Farage says he decided not to run so he could campaign around the UK and in turn make it easier for Brexit to get more seats. But I think there best shot was for Farage himself to run in a STRONG Leave that usually votes right wing (Conservative or had a strong UKIP presence) and doesn’t have a well known MP.

[CumbrianLefty]

Richard Tice is apparently the "new" BxP man in Hartlepool, which suggests they think they have at least a shot there.

[parochial boy]

Richard Tice is apparently the "new" BxP hopeful in Hartlepool, which suggests they think they have at least a shot there.

Having just googled the guy, I can't help but be astonished that a solid 90% of British public figures (aside from football players) seem to have gone to 5-figure per year private schools. There can't be a single other western country where that would be considered as an acceptable, let alone normal situation.

Also Scunthorpe

[Vosem]

Sсunthorpe strikes again!

[DaWN]

And onwards we go

North East:

Berwick-upon-Teed - Safe Tory. Only held by the Lib Dems as long as they did because of Beith.
Bishop Auckland - Lean Tory gain. It was an act of political magic to hold on last time but I think Labour's luck will run out here.
Blaydon - Safe Labour. Yawn
Blyth Valley - Likely Labour
City of Durham - Safe Labour. Margin might interest but the result won't. And when I say 'might interest' I mean 'might be merely whopping rather than ginormous'.
Darlington - Tossup. Tilt Tory gain. Much of the majority last time was due to the terrible Tory candidate which won't be repeated. Better chance than in Bishop Auckland though.
Easington - Safe Labour. It won't be Easington to displace Labour here. heh
Gateshead - Safe Labour. Yaawn.
Hartlepool - Likely Labour. Or maybe not? How the Brexit vote ends up, especially in a seat like this, is difficult to properly judge. I'm unconvinced they'll get enough support to win the seat though, even if it looks deceptively close. I wouldn't be utterly blown off my seat if I'm wrong though.
Hexham - Safe Tory. This was close in 1997. Really. It was that mad of a year.
Houghton & Sunderland South - Safe Labour. Unfortunately it and the other early declarers won't be able to tell us much about the national swing. It failed to do so in 2015 and 2017 after all. Might give a few tiny clues though.
Jarrow - Safe Labour
Middlesbrough - Safe Labour
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Lean Tory. Maybe that's a bit generous to Labour. Or maybe it isn't.
Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central - Safe Labour. Yaaawn
Newcastle-upon-Tyne East - Safe Labour. Yaaaawn
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Safe Labour. Yaaaaawn
North Durham - Safe Labour
North Tyneside - Safe Labour
North West Durham - Likely Labour. I have a lot of not very nice things to say about this incumbent but I'll keep it to the unfortunate fact that she will almost certainly win.
Redcar - Safe Labour
Sedgefield - Lean Labour. This one probably falls one day but I'm uncertain that it'll be this time. Obviously not out of the question though.
South Shields - Safe Labour
Stockton North - Likely Labour
Stockton South - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Sunderland Central - Safe Labour
Tynemouth - Safe Labour
Wansbeck - Safe Labour
Washington & Sunderland West - Safe Labour

A reasonably sized region with no constituencies I would dispute as being in a region described as 'North East'. Shocking stuff.

[DaWN]

Scotland:

I'll begin with the preface that I despise the SNP and having to predict them winning almost everything is a depressing affair.

Aberdeen North - Safe SNP
Aberdeen South - Tossup. Tilts Tory, especially now the... er... interesting incumbent called it quits.
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - Likely Tory
Airdrie & Shootts - Likely SNP
Angus - Lean Tory
Argyll & Bute - Likely SNP. Alan Reid giving it another crack means that the Lib Dems have a decent floor to rely on which might be a problem for the Tories who will also give it a go. So I say O'Hara will hold on but could get interesting. But probably not.
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold
Ayrshire Central - Likely SNP
North Ayrshire & Arran - Safe SNP
Banff & Buchan - Lean Tory
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - Safe Tory. SNP will make gains across Scotland but this is not an area for them. It shows  how bizarre 2015 was that they won in the first place.
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - Likely Lib Dem. Don't see any reason why Stone would struggle.
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - Likely SNP gain. Most of these 2017 gains will spring right back. Personally, I'm torn between my hatred of the SNP and my hatred of Corbyn. Drat.
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East - Safe SNP
Dumfries & Galloway - Lean Tory. Maybe Likely would be better, not sure. Either way, I think the Tories won't struggle holding.
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - Safe Tory
Dundee East - Safe SNP
Dundee West - Safe SNP
Dunfermline & West Fife - Likely SNP
East Dunbartonshire - Safe Lib Dem. Swinson is inevitable. Get over it.
East Kilbridge, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Safe SNP
East Lothian - Tossup. Tilts SNP gain. Probably Labour's best chance to keep one of their 2017 gains.
East Renfrewshire - Tossup. Tilts Tory. Was very Remainy but they gained it in 2017 for a good reason (its upmarket enough that in England it would be fanatically Tory). An SNP win would obviously hardly shock though.
Edinburgh East - Safe SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith - Likely SNP
Edinburgh South - Lean Labour. That's a hell of a majority to overcome but then again, it's not like there isn't precedent in Scotland...
Edinburgh South West - Likely SNP
Edinburgh West - Likely Lib Dem. Doubt the SNP will even bother given the Labour targets nearby. Don't think there'll be an issue.
Falkirk - Likely SNP
Glasgow Central - Safe SNP
Glasdgow East - Likely SNP
Glasgow North - Likely SNP
Glasgow North East - Likely SNP gain. See Coatbridge, C & B.
Glasgow North West - Safe SNP
Glasgow South - Safe SNP
Glasgow South West - Likely SNP
Glenrothes - Safe SNP
Gordon - Tossup. Tilts Tory.
Inverclyde - Likely SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Safe SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun - Safe SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Likely SNP gain. See Glasgow NE.
Lanark & Hamitlon East - Likely SNP
Linlithgow & East Falkirk - Safe SNP
Livingston - Safe SNP
Midlothian - Likely SNP gain. See Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.
Moray - Lean Tory
Motherwell & Wishaw - Likely SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar - Safe SNP. I think. Bizarre seat but one that in the end I think will be safe for the SNP even when Scotland begins to resemble a vaguely democratic country again. Whenever that will be.
North East Fife - Safe Lib Dem gain. They lost it by 2 votes when their nationwide vote share was less than half what it is at the moment. You do the maths.
Ochil & South Perthshire - Tossup, Tilt Tory. Without the electoral albatross of the previous SNP incumbent they will probably do a bit better. Remains to be seen. Interesting that the previous incumbent for East Dunbartonshire is standing here - shows the SNP are real confident about that one (but here's how Swinson can still lose!!!)
Orkney & Shetland - Safe Lib Dem. Jo Swinson could set a goose on fire and they'd still hold this one comfortably. The only truly safe Lib Dem seat in the country.
Paisley & Renfrewshire North - Safe SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South - Safe SNP. Signpost and weathervane my arse.
Perth & North Perthshire - Likely SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - Likely SNP. With a sizable Labour vote to squeeze, whichever of the Tories and the Lib Dems really give it a go might have a chance, but given they probably both will, that's more or less it. A shame really, seeing Blackford go down would be so immensely satisfying it would forgive any other awful results this election.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Likely SNP gain. See Midlothian.
Stirling - Lean SNP gain. Yeah, that's not the kind of majority I'd want in this situation. Tories not completely out yet though.
West Dunbartonshire - Safe SNP

While it won't happen this election, it is at least somewhat satisfying to know that every day that passes is a day that we get closer to the SNP finally getting what they deserve. Oh please be soon.

[DaWN]

And finally, Northern Ireland:

I should point out I know far less about NI politics than I do GB politics so these predictions are made with less confidence and will probably have less accuracy. You have been warned. Also both the two main parties are given alternative names because I hate them and want to belittle them. Who says pettiness has no place in psephology.

Belfast East - Likely GOP-NI. Maybe that's a little generous to the GOP-NI, but I'm not sure Alliance get that breakthrough this time. Would like to be wrong.
Belfast North - Tossup. GOP-NI hold if forced to choose but I imagine this one will come down to the wire.
Belfast South - Tossup. Tilts GOP-NI hold but the SDLP will run them close. I imagine.
Belfast West - Safe IRA
East Antrim - Safe GOP-NI
East Londonderry - Likely GOP-NI
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Tossup. IRA hold if forced to choose. The GOP-NI are standing aside for the UUP but they did that last time and the IRA won anyway even with the SDLP standing, so things aren't always predictable. Will be very close again no doubt.
Foyle - Tossup. IRA hold if forced to choose but I imagine this will also be very close.
Lagan Valley - Safe GOP-NI
Mid Ulster - Safe IRA
Newry & Armagh - Safe IRA
North Antrim - Safe GOP-NI
North Down - Lean GOP-NI gain. The GOP-NI and the UUP will fight this one out but I think a good rule in Northern Ireland is that when in doubt, the insane party wins. Shame to see Hermon go.
South Antrim - Lean GOP-NI. See above (minus the Hermon bit)
South Down - Lean IRA. Might be an unpredictable seat. The whole 'not really knowing NI as well as GB' thing comes into play for me here though.
Strangford - Safe GOP-NI
Upper Bann - Likely GOP-NI
West Tyorne - Safe IRA

And that concludes that. If I decide any individual ratings are to change between now and polling day (and there more than likely will be) then they'll be posted here.

[CumbrianLefty]

SDLP are almost certain to win back Belfast S methinks.

North is genuinely 50-50 and could well be recount(s?) terrirory.

[Tintrlvr]

SDLP are almost certain to win back Belfast S methinks.

North is genuinely 50-50 and could well be recount(s?) terrirory.

Yeah, hard to see how the SDLP misses with SF standing aside for them. Alliance is the wild card, of course.

[Oryxslayer]

Right now, with a good idea of who is standing where I think it's likely to be 8 DUP, 5 SINN, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, and 3 . SDLP are putting all their eggs into the Foyle and Belfast South baskets. Foyle is a probable pickup since their leader is going there. The DUP get Hermon's seat for the reasons alluded to, but its probably to be an Alliance/DUP fight not UUP/DUP. Good number of potential voters for the Alliance near Belfast now that Hermons gone. Long's back in Westminster since she's in a 1v1 header with the DUP and Alliances fortunes are on the  upswing.

Now, both the DUP and Sinn are down from their 2017 high because NI has been govt-less for years since they cannot compromise. Sinn have  leadership troubles and the DUP have issues related to their support from Westminster. The Alliance are the  only NI party with any sort of 'momentum' right now, increasing support in both the locals and the EU. However, the Alliance lacks targets and is more likely to play a disrupter role. With this in mind, here are the tossups:

North Belfast: Pure DUP/Sinn fight, the DUP have been advantageous with their pacts here.
South Belfast: Alliance surge is a problem here for the traditional contest between SDLP and DUP, and it's a real three way fight.
Fem & S Tyrone: Only chance of UUP breakthrough, its a seat where any Sinn turnout drop or vote split gives away the seat.


FTR, very little  of these are  my takes. I have just as much knowledge of NI politics as you, so I follow an actual residents on-the-ground and up-to date takes. They can be found here, here, and here - though you may need to create an account on this forum to view them, I cannot remember. If so I will repost here, there is a general timeline to them though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't believe the Alliance hype in NI, as with their mainland cousins the European elections overstate the real strength of their position. They are almost definitely *not* going to win Belfast S or indeed get close.

(Belfast E and North Down are where they should be concentrating their efforts tbh)

[Oryxslayer]

Don't believe the Alliance hype in NI, as with their mainland cousins the European elections overstate the real strength of their position. They are almost definitely *not* going to win Belfast S or indeed get close.

(Belfast E and North Down are where they should be concentrating their efforts tbh)

I'm not going to defend my post and instead suggest you actually read the justifications from an actual NI'er. I've actually reposted the first one and his justification for the Alliance before - it can be found on page 2. It is the first take  in the timline though, now 10 days old and candidate nominations have made some redundant. Essentially, the EU elections are better data points in NI then they are anywhere else because sectarian voting doesn't stop for Brussels. He's also not comparing vote percentages, which can move with turnout and do make Euro elections useless 90% of the time, but total voters which are not really changing in NI.

[Boobs]

Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

[DaWN]

Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

Thanks for the map!

[LabourJersey]

Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

Does anyone have numbers for this predictions? Seems to look like a narrow Tory majority/plurality but I'm not sure