UK General Election Prediction Thread
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Conservative Majority
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Conservatives largest party
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Labour Majority
#4
Labour largest party
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Liberal Democrats largest party
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Author Topic: UK General Election Prediction Thread  (Read 25034 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #175 on: December 11, 2019, 05:49:58 AM »

Final Changes

Linking all the quotes takes forever and I have things I need to do, so just take my word for it that these were the original ratings.

Chingford & Woodford Green: Lean Tory -> Tossup/Tilts Tory
IDS doesn't bring out the hate in me that he did a few years ago. I guess that's what time out of the limelight does. I'm almost rooting for Labour here.

Hornsey & Wood Green: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
Would have changed this one last time if I noticed it. But I didn't.

Hastings & Rye: Lean Tory -> Tossup/Tilts Tory
Mainly because of a gaffe from the Tory candidate. This goes back to my original rating btw.

Guildford: Likely Tory -> Lean Tory
You know, if the Lib Dems could stop f!cking everything up, that would be great.

Wokingham: Lean Tory -> Likely Tory
Unfortunately, we haven't been hearing anything from this seat which gives me the impression Redwood is home and dry. Can't tell you how badly I'd like to be wrong about this one.

South Cambridgeshire: Safe Tory -> Likely Tory
Again returning to the original rating. I'm fickle and changeable, what can I say.

Brecon & Radnorshire: Lean Lib Dem -> Tossup/Tilts Lib Dem
Out of caution. I still think Dodds will win though.

Wrexham: Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory
Another one I would have done last time if I noticed. This one falls even in a 2017-redux I think.

Edinburgh South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
pleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadly

Glasgow North East: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
See above.

North East Fife: Safe Lib Dem -> Likely Lib Dem
Out of caution, because the SNP always get f!cking lucky in seats like this.

Which leads to a final seat change prediction of:
Conservative gain from Labour
Ashfield
Barrow & Furness
Basseltaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Bury North
Bury South
Canterbury
Colne Valley
Crewe & Nantwich
Dagenham
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Dudley North
Gower
Great Grimsby
High Peak
Ipswich
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone & Stockbridge
Peterborough
Portsmouth South
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stroud
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick & Leamington
Weaver Vale
Wolverhampton SW
Workington
Wrexham

Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat
Eastbourne
North Norfolk

Labour gain from Conservative
Putney

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Richmond Park
St Albans
Winchester

Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
Sheffield Hallam

Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion

Liberal Democrat gain from SNP
North East Fife

SNP gain from Labour
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
East Lothian
Glasgow North East
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Midlothian
Rutherglen & Hamilton West

SNP gain from Conservative
Stirling

DUP gain from Independent
North Down

Speaker gain from Labour
Chorley

And for fun...
Incumbent with largest margin of defeat: Zac Goldsmith
Closest seat: Canterbury
Safest seat: Liverpool Walton
Safest Tory seat: Christchurch
Seat that will be agonisingly close but no cigar and then the hated incumbent will retire at the next election blunting the possible joy in a gain: Wokingham
Seat that will most annoy me: probably Dulwich & West Norwood lmao
Seat that Twitter and the media got their pants in a twist about that will end up with the largest majority for the incumbent party: Leigh
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Hnv1
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« Reply #176 on: December 11, 2019, 06:06:55 AM »

Tory majority of less than 15, Brexit and early elections by 2022
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #177 on: December 11, 2019, 12:19:16 PM »

I feel about this pretty much exactly as I felt a month ago. Tories get between 305 and 310 seats and maybe manage to stay in power with a fragile minority government but without the ability to "get Brexit done."
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mileslunn
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« Reply #178 on: December 11, 2019, 12:39:19 PM »

Tory majority of 38,

Tories         343 seats
Labour       226 seats
SNP           43 seats
LibDems    14 seats
PC             4 seats
Greens      1 seat

Popular vote

Tories       43%
Labour     34%
LibDems   12%
SNP          3%
Brexit       3%
Greens      2%
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Cassius
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« Reply #179 on: December 11, 2019, 01:49:01 PM »

So.

Contrary to the start of the campaign, I think the Tories will likely remain in government, either in a minority (winning a very similar number of seats to last time, give or take a few), or with a very narrow majority (330ish seats). I don’t think they will gain very many of the proverbial ‘northern marginals’ that have been discussed so much, but equally I don’t think they will lose more than a handful of seats to the SNP or the Lib Dems. I think it will be a very scrappy result with a lot of fairly random gains and losses - seats that Labour gained narrowly last time, like Peterborough and Canterbury could easily flip back to the Tories, whilst some of the narrow Tory holds like Hastings and Rye could go Labour. As I said, I think Tory gains in northern, midlands and Welsh marginals will be fairly small, but could be enough to put them over the top with a majority if they have a decent night elsewhere.

A few individual predictions:

Bolsover: Dennis Skinner will hold.
Esher, Guildford, South Cambridgeshire and Wokingham: The Lib Dems will come nowhere near in these. I think the best scenario for them will be the Tories falling to the mid forties whilst they get into the thirties, but still at least ten points adrift.
Brecon and Radnorshire: I think it’ll be close, but the Lib Dems will lose it.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson gets back with a slightly bigger majority.
Arfon: Possible Labour gain? Was very marginal last time and apparently Labour have been busing activists into it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #180 on: December 11, 2019, 02:46:53 PM »

Okay, so time for me to update my predication. You can find last weeks general assessment found on the last page. In short, I said Tories 345, Labour 209. I thought that I might need to make changes, but it appears as if polls and models have moved into alignment with my projection last time, rather than the other way around. Conservatives doing good in the North, Labour+Libs holding up in the South and benefiting from tactical voting/targeted campaigns. Therefore this is my locked in prediction with some caveats:

Conservatives: 342 Seats, up 24 since 2017, working majority of 20

Labour: 220 Seats, down 42 since 2017

SNP: 38 Seats, up 3

Lib-Dems: 25 Seats, up 13

Plaid Cymru: 5 Seats, up 1

Greens: 1 Seat, no change

DUP: 8 Seats, down 2

Sinn Fein: 6 Seats, down 1

SDLP: 2 Seats, up 2

Alliance: 2 Seat, up 2

Speaker: 1 Seat



My regional breakdowns here are in response to my breakdowns from last time.

The North





Labour continues to be down by a lot in the Northern, Brexit-voting seats. There are less losses then the 45 north of Birmingham/Coventry last time, this time it's only 40. However, Remain/Leave polarization keeps BoJo on track for his majority.

The South



YouGov and other models show Labour and the Lib-Dem's picking up steam, which is what I always expected. Some gains have been moved about, but the trend is the same. Watford is a key pick for this theme: Lab+Lib can easily outvote the Tories if they vote tactically to stop Brexit, but if they don't then the Cons sneak through. Raab goes down.

Lib-Dems



I mentioned last time that the Lib-Dems are always undershot by models thanks to their campaign strategy. Aggressive targeting is missed by even the best projections because of how the vote is concentrated in a handful of seats and disperses in the rest. Well, at least in the South, the places this vote  is concentrated in appear to have come to an agreeable position in thee light. Every southern Non-London Gain is a pure Lib-Dem vs Tory grudge match for the top slot.

Only Brecon & Radnorshire deserves mentioning because that seat is more of a 'most likely' stand in. One of Ceredigion, Totnes, B & R, Eastbourne, Cheadle, Altrichim and Sale W, and Beaconsfield will not elect a Tory (or PC for Ceredigion), and B & R seems the most likely of the pack to stay with the Lib-Dems.

London



London has significant changes from last time around, even though it may not appear as such. The big thing was that 10 days ago I believed in the 'max Lib-Dem' tactical surge in West London. Data suggested back then that such a event was a realistic possibility. Recent data shows that this never materialized, and so we move down to the second potential outcome described then: confusion. Five seats (Twin Cities, Kensington, Putney, Wimbledon, Finchely & Golders Green) now are all unknowns. The majority of voters in all 5 do not want a Tory Brexit, but that majority is divided between Lib and Lab. In some seats, the Lib-Dems are the clear challengers, in others Labour. This is the area most likely to vote tactically outside  of Scotland, so maybe things will turn around in a single day. Here's how I justified each seat:

Putney & Kensington: Labour are now the clear Tory alternative. Polls show Labour close and enough Lib-Dems prefer them to the Tories. Models suggest both seats should flip. So, Tories only hold if they are able to walk down the middle despite tactical remain voting.

Twin Cities & Wimbledon: Lib-Dems are the clear alternative, but data is less favorable than in the Labour seats. Both should be flipping under normal models, but it is unclear if said models can apply. Wimbledon has better Lib-Dem fundamentals, but Stephan Hammond is the type of guy who can push back against t he unfavorable headwinds. Twin Cities has no incumbent and has a better baseline, but the Labour vote appears inflexible enough to let the tories through. I say one of the two flip, and Wimbledon was the easier seat to call.

Finchley & Golders Green: Every model can't weight for Jews because of their small numbers and flexible  membership, so it's best to ignore every models expectations for what happens in Barnet and go with the fundamentals. the fundamentals suggest the Lib-Dems are the only ones running a Jewish candidate, and certain Jewish communities may flip overwhelmingly to them, something polls will miss.

Besides this, I'm sticking with my IDS and Dagenham flip predictions.

Wales



So I'm taking the  middle path between YouGov's MRP and the welsh barometer. Voter concentration and flexibility suggests though that if Labour are significantly below what the MRP has them at then most of the north moves as a block away from Labour. That's essentially what happens here. Also, Ynys Mons is weird like usual but I called a PC gain a week ago and I'm sticking with it, even though the PC vote is hard to pick up and model.

Scotland



First off, no model can give you an accurate picture of what's going on in Scotland. Too many parties, too much tactical voting, too little historical data. I would be far more confident in giving you my prediction of 38/39 SNP, 13/12 CON, 5 LIB, and 3 LAB, and just leaving it at that. Since this a map thread though, here we go.

With such a mixed picture, you have to find something and cling to it. For this projection, I'm clinging to polarization. The 3 to 4 percent the SNP pick up are concentrated in the urbanized corridor between the cities, and they continue to move backwards in the Highlands. The one seat I am most uncertain about is Lanark and Hamilton East, there is a lot of conflicting information going on there. Lib-Dems are also up, so they gain Fife North East. Labour are down, but tactical voting savings theme in Coatbridge, and the SNP threw away their potential gain in Kirkcaldy.

Northern Ireland



The numbers on the tin have not changed since last week. I still think 9 DUP seats, 6 Sinners, 2 SDLP pickups, and 1 Alliance is the most likely outcome. However, I now think a caveat needs to be added to this normal prediction. In addition to the 2 SDLP pickups and 1 Alliance gain in Belfast East, I am saying a fourth flip will occur. I'm not sure if this flip will be a Sinn Fein gain in Belfast North, a UUP gain in F & S Tyrone, or the Alliance gaining both their tossups. However, the second Alliance gain is the  most likely of those three, so I'm putting it on the  map. Also, low chance of the Alliance getting Belfast South instead of the SDLP.
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cp
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« Reply #181 on: December 11, 2019, 02:48:53 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2019, 12:58:15 AM by cp »

If only for posterity, I'll stick my neck out and predict Labour as the largest party, but by just a few seats - 290 for Labour vs 280 for the Tories, let's say. It should be enough to combine with the SNP and Lib Dems to form a viable government for long enough to hold a referendum, but once that's done there will probably be another election within a year.

In the spirit of bookending, I'm going to make a second prediction one day before polling day:

Tory: 305
Labour: 257
SNP: 45
LD: 21
DUP: 8
SF: 7
PC: 3
Alliance: 2
UUP: 1
Green: 1
Brexit: 0

Figures above assumed with a +/- 5 seats for Tory/Lab/SNP.

I'm not too fussed about percentages, but something like a 39/38/13 is the general ballpark.

A few minor predictions: Johnson, Skinner, Swinson, Baker, Berger, Ummuna, and Redwood win their races. Raab, Goldsmith, Onn, and Blake (LD in Sheffield Hallam) lose theirs.
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« Reply #182 on: December 11, 2019, 03:40:20 PM »

Maybe not a very original or daring prediction, but here we are:

Cons - 342 MPs (43%)
Lab - 226 MPs (34%)
Lib Dem - 17 MPs (12%)
Nat - 46 MPs (3%)
GP - 1 MP, 3%

Overall majority: 34
Overall swing: 3.0% to Cons

Margin of error: +/- 15 MPs (equivalent to roughly +/- 2% of swing)
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Roblox
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« Reply #183 on: December 11, 2019, 04:06:50 PM »

 I'll have a crack at it…

Popular vote
Conservatives:43%
Labour:36%
LD:11%
SNP:3%
Brexit:3%
Others: 4%

Seats
Tories: 336
Labour:234
SNP:42
LD:18
Others: 20

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jaichind
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« Reply #184 on: December 11, 2019, 04:30:52 PM »

Party  Seats  Vote share
CON     358     44.8%
LAB      216     33.8%
LDEM     14     12.8%
BXP         0       2.0%
Green      1       1.9%
SNP       40       3.5%
PC           3       0.5%
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Donerail
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« Reply #185 on: December 11, 2019, 07:35:14 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 09:11:24 PM by Priest of Moloch »

CON: 326
LAB: 223
SNP: 51
LD: 25
Plaid: 5
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
DUP: 8
SF: 7
Alliance: 2
SDLP: 1

Absolutely the best possible outcome. Boris's majority on a knife's edge so we get to hear about him technically losing it every time some old Tory windbag finally keels over, the odds of the Brexit deal passing come into question, Labour descends into a drawn-out leadership battle, SNP does well enough that IndyRef 2.0 starts looking likely, Lib Dems over-perform and let it go to their heads (not wise!), and the distant whispers of a border poll grow just a little louder...
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #186 on: December 11, 2019, 07:37:55 PM »

FINAL PREDICTION
I'm optimistic enough to think tactical voting and regional vote concentration for Labour and the Lib Dems will cause Labour to lose fewer seats than expected in the north, and the Lib Dems to gain more seats than expected in the South. With my predicted seat totals, this will lead to a hung parliament. Perhaps that will lead to a Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid+Alliance+Independent+SDLP+Green coalition of chaos one seat over the 323 I project will be needed for a majority. Perhaps the Torys can find 12 MPs willing to give them a majority. Most likely, a Corbyn-led minority government would occur, with a second referendum on Brexit, which is what really counts. New elections within two years would be almost inevitable.

SEAT BREAKDOWN (change from 2017)
Conservatives: 311 (-6)
Labour: 228 (-34)
SNP: 49 seats (+14)
Lib Dem: 35 seats (+23)
DUP: 8 seats (-2)
Plaid: 5 seats (+1)
{Sinn Fein: 5 seats (-2)}
Alliance: 2 seats (+2)
Independent: 2 seats (+1)
SDLP: 2 seats (+2)
Green: 1 seat (-)
Speaker: 1 seat (-)
UUP: 1 seat (+1)

POPULAR VOTE
Conservative: 42%
Labour: 36%
Lib Dem: 13%
SNP: 4%
Brexit: 2%
Green: 1%

PROJECTED FLIPS

Alliance flips from 2017: 2 seats
Belfast East
North Down

Conservative flips from 2017: 31 seats
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Buckingham
Colne Valley
Crewe and Nantwich
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Dudley North
Great Grimsby
Hyndburn
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick and Leamington
Weaver Vale
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington

Independent flips from 2017: 2 seats
Beaconsfield
East Devon

Labour flips from 2017: 7 seats
Bolton West
Crawley
Ipswich
Milton Keynes North
Reading West
Southampton Itchen
Watford

Lib Dem flips from 2017: 23 seats
Altrincham and Sale West
Battersea
Cheltenham
Chelsea & Fulham
City of London & Westminster
Colchester
Esher & Walton
Finchley & Golders Green
Guildford
Kensington
Lewes
North East Fife
Putney
Richmond Park
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Southport
St. Albans
St. Ives
Totnes
Wimbledon
Winchester
Wokingham

Plaid flips from 2017: 1 seat
Ynys Mon

SDLP flips from 2017: 2 seats
Belfast South
Foyle

SNP flips from 2017: 15 seats
Aberdeen South
Angus
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banff and Buchan
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow North East
Gordon
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Midlothian
Moray
Ochil and South Perthshire
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Stirling

UUP flips from 2017: 1 seat
Fermanagh & S Tyrone
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #187 on: December 11, 2019, 08:13:45 PM »

Well it is approaching 7 p.m.   One poll I read pointed out that a disproportionate number of undecided were Labour Leavers.  I am going to stick my neck out.  I am going to predict these Leavers are going to give the Tories an unexpectedly large majority closing in on 360 to 370 seats.  They want Brexit completed. They do not want the uncertainty and mess of a hung Parliament  that was clearly revealed in October.

I may provide a list of seats later this evening.

The popular vote
   Tories 45%
    Labour 32%
   Lib Dem 12%
    Brexit.    3%
    Green.    3%
     SNP.       3.5%
     Plaid.        .5
      Other.     1%

This prediction has a calming effect on me.  It meets my hopes.  If I am wrong, it is no skin off my back.  It will be Britain which will suffer with a hung Parliament and Corbyn messing things up.
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« Reply #188 on: December 11, 2019, 11:20:55 PM »

Con 361
Lab 206
SNP 42
Lib Dem 16
DUP 10
SF 6
PC 5
SDLP 2
Green 1
Speaker 1

Being deliberately pessimistic and assuming that if the polls are out, it may be in a similar fashion to 2015 rather than 2010 or 2017. I suspect the voters of small-town England will get the chance to repent at leisure (insert reference to Mencken here).
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« Reply #189 on: December 11, 2019, 11:54:47 PM »

Con - 303
Lab - 254
SNP - 55
LD - 16
Green - 1
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Pericles
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« Reply #190 on: December 12, 2019, 12:08:20 AM »

2019 UK election
Boris Johnson-Conservative: 337+20 42.7%(-0.8%)
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 233-29 35.6%(-5.4%)
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 40+5
Jo Swinson-LibDem: 16+4 12.3%(+4.7%)
650 seats
326 for majority


SNP gains; Stirling (from Con), Glasgow North East (from Lab), East Lothian (from Lab), Midlothian (from Lab), Rutherglen and Hamilton West (from Lab), Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill (from Lab)
LibDem gains; North East Fife (from SNP), Sheffield Hallam (from Lab), St Albans (from Con), Cheltenham (from Con), St Ives (from Con), Richmond Park (from Con)
Con gains; Buckingham (from Speaker), Eastbourne (from LibDem), Ipswich (from Lab), North Norfolk (from LibDem), Peterborough (from Lab), Wrexham (from Lab), Dudley North (from Lab), Newcastle-under-Lyme (from Lab), Stoke-on-Trent North (from Lab), Ashfield (from Lab), Bassetlaw (from Lab), Derby North (from Lab), Colne Valley (from Lab), Great Grimsby (from Lab), Keighley (from Lab), Penistone and Stocksbridge (from Lab), Rother Valley (from Lab), Sc**nthorpe (from Lab), Wakefield (from lab), Barrow and Furness (from Lab), Blackpool South (from Lab), Crewe and Nantwich (from Lab), Bishop Auckland (from Lab), Darlington (from Lab), Stockton South (from Lab)
Labour gains; Putney (from Con)

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rob in cal
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« Reply #191 on: December 12, 2019, 02:02:21 AM »

  I'm also going with Con 328 seats.
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« Reply #192 on: December 12, 2019, 04:02:02 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2019, 04:24:07 AM by tack50 »

My prediction

My prediction:
Tories: 345
Labour: 224
SNP: 40
Lib Dems: 18
PC: 4
Green: 1
NI: 18
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« Reply #193 on: December 12, 2019, 06:42:39 AM »

I’ll regret this, but underwhelming CON majority of 328 seats.

I take it you are pro Tory.  Cheer up.  It is going to be good evening.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #194 on: December 12, 2019, 06:57:26 AM »

Can you please behave yourself?
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« Reply #195 on: December 12, 2019, 12:06:24 PM »

My Prediction:


Conservatives : 352
Labour: 216
SNP: 41
Lib Dems : 19
Others : 22
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« Reply #196 on: December 12, 2019, 01:13:00 PM »

Con: 355
Lab: 214
SNP: 38
LD: 19
PC: 3
G: 1
Speaker:1
Independent:1
DUP: 9
SF: 6
SDLP: 2
APNI: 1
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« Reply #197 on: December 12, 2019, 01:59:35 PM »

47% Conservatives
29% Labour
14% LibDems
  4% SNP
  2% Greens
  2% Brexit
  2% Others

CON majority of 101 seats.

375 CON
194 Labour
  33 SNP
  24 LibDems
  18 N.I. parties
    4 PC
    1 Green

    1 Speaker

Turnout: 74.6%
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« Reply #198 on: December 12, 2019, 02:44:47 PM »


Indeed. This thread is for posting and discussing predictions. Discussing in a calm and on-topic manner, and the (now deleted) post made by Mr. Keyboard Warrior is the very opposite of what this thread should be about.
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« Reply #199 on: December 12, 2019, 03:09:39 PM »

Based off the final polls, with greater weight on MRP results, and YouGov's MRP constituency results, I'm going for the following. The range is based on constituencies with a projected majority of less than 5.5% switching hands.

Overall
Great Britain
Con - 355 (315-399)
Lab - 215 (178-245)
SNP - 41 (33-54)
Lib - 15 (8-20)
PC - 4 (4-5)
Grn - 1 (1-1)
Spk - 1 (1-1)
Brx - 0 (0-0)
Oth - 0 (0-1)
Conservative majority of 60 (short by 11 to majority of 148)

Northern Ireland
DUP - 10 (7-10)
SF - 6 (6-8)
SDLP - 2 (0-2)
APNI - 0 (0-3)
UUP - 0 (0-0)

Seats changing hands in central forecast
Con -> Lab (2)
Chipping Barnet
Putney

Con -> SNP (4)
Angus
East Renfrewshire
Gordon
Stirling

Lab -> Con (46)
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bassetlaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolsover
Bolton North East
Bradford South
Bury North
Bury South
Clwyd South
Colne Valley
Crewe and Nantwich
Darlington
Delyn
Derby North
Dewsbury
Don Valley
Dudley North
Gedling
Great Grimsby
Hyndburn
Ipswich
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Peterborough
Rother Valley
Sc**nthrope
Sedgefield
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stroud
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
Warrington South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington
Worsley and Eccles South
Wrexham

Lab -> Lib (1)
Sheffield, Hallam

Lab -> SNP (3)
Glasgow North East
Midlothian
Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Lab -> Speaker (1)
Chorley

Lib -> Con (2)
Eastbourne
North Norfolk

SNP -> Con (1)
Lanark and Hamilton East

SF -> SDLP (2)
Belfast South
Foyle

Speaker -> Con (1)
Buckingham
Logged
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