UK General Election Prediction Thread

[cp]

At the moment the Tories are well placed, but they may have played their last best card - the "let's eat up as much of the Brexit Party as we can" one.

The fact they intend to release their manifesto so late (just two weeks before the GE, almost unheard of in previous campaigns) suggest it is going to be a damage limitation exercise after the folk memory of 2017, not an inspiring programme that will sweep the board.

Yeah, I'm still pondering the wisdom of this move. It fits into the lifelong Johnson strategy of getting people to vote for something they probably don't want by avoiding as much public scrutiny as possible (hey, just like Brexit!). But it's also a way of ceding the field to the opposition, which isn't a good idea no matter how big your lead is. The fact that we've spent the past two days talking pretty much entirely about a Labour manifesto proposal ought to give Tories pause about not releasing any manifesto for another two weeks.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

Updated NI:
DUP: 8 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 3 (Foyle, South Down, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

SF has screwed up in Foyle. Kinda thinking that Aontu could keep their deposit there.

[mileslunn]

Considering how disliked Corbyn is, I think BoJo has a chance to win a yuge majority so best case Tory scenario

Tory      415
Labour  158
SNP      37
LibDem 17
PC         4
Green    1

While best case Labour I show the following

Tory      308
Labour  271
SNP      25
LibDem 24
PC        3
Green   1

So Tories winning most seats pretty much a near certainty unless there is a major screwup, but I believe Corbyn's unpopularity is too entrenched for Labour to win most seats.  I would say about a 90% chance of a Tory majority and a 10% chance of hung parliament with Conservatives being largest party.  I believe a 400+ seat majority for Tories more likely than a hung parliament.

[DaWN]

A few ratings changes

Esher & Walton - Safe Tory

Safe Tory -> Likely Tory

Based on the anecdotal information given to me by cp in the main thread, true, but I'll accept there's a tinge of uncertainty. I'll still very much believe it when I see it.

Cambridge - Lean Labour

Leeds North West - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Likely Labour

The fallen poll numbers, the media hit jobs and Labour's faux Remain tilt mean I think these targets disappear for the Lib Dems. Hallam is the only seat I think they have much of a chance to take from Labour now (obviously it's a very good chance as it was basically an accident it was lost in the first place. Even then I might change that rating in the near future).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

please let this work

Final Adjusted prediction (Warning: going out on a major limb here, probably gonna be wrong)

Tories - 405
Labour - 155
SNP - 48
Lib Dems - 19
PC - 4
Greens - 1

Northern Ireland Seats:
DUP - 9
Sinn Fein - 3
SDLP - 3
Independent - 1
Alliance - 1 

[CumbrianLefty]

The polls are if anything getting closer, rather than the opposite. So any prediction the Tories will get more seats than in their 1983 landslide (when they were c16% ahead nationally) looks.....brave.

[mileslunn]

The polls are if anything getting closer, rather than the opposite. So any prediction the Tories will get more seats than in their 1983 landslide (when they were c16% ahead nationally) looks.....brave.

Depends a lot on youth turnout and how much of the Liberal Democrat vote holds up.  A decline in Liberal Democrats seems to result in 2/3 going Labour and 1/3 Tory so if LibDems stay above 15% bad news for Labour, but if under 12% helps them.  A lot of polls are going on younger voter turnout around 55% so if younger voters like 2015 don't show up, I think Labour likely will get less than 200 seats and Tories over 380.  If however younger voters show up in similar numbers to 2017 which based on registration seems quite possible, than probably a Tory lead of 6-8 points if things don't change, but could get even closer.  In this case, Tories right on the line for majority although I think applying a uniform swing is risky.  With Brexit being main issue, I think a lot of Labour seats that went over 60% leave will see much bigger swing towards the Tories and you could even see some seats Labour won by 20 points flip.  On other hand those with younger demographics and over 60% remain, I could easily see Labour holding onto many marginals that on paper may look vulnerable.

Also there is the tactical voting question too.  Are Liberal Democrats around 13-14% nationwide or is this heavily concentrated in London and other areas of South where many Labour voters will tactically vote Liberal Democrat while in much of the rest of the country are struggling to hit 5%.  If nationwide, good news for Tories, if more concentrated could make race closer than expected.

[DaWN]

I'd caution against assuming a further Lib Dem collapse automatically helps Labour. It's likely just as much of their support comes from disaffected Tories rather than disaffected Labourites. It's also the case that the former are probably more important when it comes to winning seats.

[mileslunn]

I'd caution against assuming a further Lib Dem collapse automatically helps Labour. It's likely just as much of their support comes from disaffected Tories rather than disaffected Labourites. It's also the case that the former are probably more important when it comes to winning seats.

The polls that compare 2017 to current vote so far show more Liberal Democrats going Labour than Tory but of those remaining may be right.  Likewise of Liberal Democrat gains, more came from Labour than Tories but you did get some Tory remainers particularly in London area switching.  That being said Tories are more or less polling at same level they had in 2017, while Labour is a full 8-11 points below 2017 levels so Tories have much greater voter retention than does Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

Also uncertain how much is Lib-Dem collapse and more just a Lib-Dem realization that their going to be a targeted party once again, so their voters in untargeted constituencies are just heading to where they would always go of the Libs are uncompetitive.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Tactical voting will make it hard to predict the number of seats that the Lib Dems take. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do better in terms of seats than expected while also doing worse than expected in the popular vote.

[mileslunn]

Tactical voting will make it hard to predict the number of seats that the Lib Dems take. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do better in terms of seats than expected while also doing worse than expected in the popular vote.

Very possible although I also think Liberal Democrat coalition this time is different than in 2010.  Places like Somerset, Devon, and Cornwall I think will stay Tory.  Those areas are older, rural, and mostly voted leave so I don't see many if any at all flipping back.  On other hand in London there is a lot of potential and so if any big gains, while problem be in London or areas in London commuter belt.  I would say Tory seats that voted over 60% remain are ones they are most likely to pickup while likewise Labour seats that went over 60% leave are likely to fall unless Labour won by a very large margin in 2017, but even ones where Labour won by 15-20 points in 2017, if over 60% leave they could flip.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

Updated NI:
DUP: 8 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 3 (Foyle, South Down, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

SF has screwed up in Foyle. Kinda thinking that Aontu could keep their deposit there.

Following YouGov’s release of the MRP:

England
Tories: 327
Labour: 189
Lib Dems: 19 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 45
Tories: 9
Lib Dems: 4
Labour: 1

Wales
Labour: 26
Tories: 9
PC: 4
Lib Dems: 1

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8 (incl North Down)
(SF: 7)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

UK Total
Tories: 345
Labour: 216
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 24
DUP: 8
(SF: 7)
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1

[Intell]

Some out there predictions on my part.

CON: 290 (-28)
LAB: 262 (+10)
LIB: 20 (+8)
Green 1 (-1)
SNP: 48 (+13)
Plaid: 2 (-2)


Sorry, but the link is screwing up the page

[Continential]

Remove the link please.

[diptheriadan]

Good Christ. Does nobody understand how to use the preview button?

[Pericles]

Had a look at the marginals and based on my assessment I'll go with this;
(Changes are from the last election)
Conservative: 343 (+26)
Labour: 221 (-41)
SNP: 43 (+8)
LibDem: 19 (+7)
650 seats
326 for majority

[DaWN]

Some rating changes:

Crawley - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Hastings & Rye - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Milton Keynes North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Milton Keynes South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Bristol North West - Likely Labour

Likely Labour -> Lean Labour

Camborne & Redruth - Lean Tory
Filton & Bradley Stoke - Lean Tory
South Swindon - Lean Tory
Totnes - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Bedford - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Ipswich - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Norwich North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Peterborough - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

South Cambridgeshire - Likely Tory

Likely Tory -> Safe Tory

Stevenage - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Gower - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Vale of Clwyd - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Halesowen & Rowley Regis - Lean Tory
Nuneaton - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Stoke-on-Trent North - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Warwick & Leamington - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Telford - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Bassetlaw - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Broxtowe - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Derby North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Northampton North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Northampton South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Bolsover - Safe Labour

Safe Labour -> Lean Labour

Derby South - Safe Labour

Safe Labour -> Likely Labour

Gedling - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Mansfield - Lean Tory
North East Debyshire - Lean Tory
Sherwood - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Colne Valley - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Penistone & Stockbridge - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Pudsey - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Dewsbury - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Rother Valley - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Sc u nthorpe - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Wakefield - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Don Valley - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Scarborough & Whitby - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Altrincham & Sale West - Likely Tory
Macclesfield - Likely Tory

Likely Tory -> Safe Tory

Barrow and Furness - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Crewe & Nantwich - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Warrington South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Blackpool South - Lean Labour
Bolton North East - Lean Labour
Wirral West - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Bury North - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Bury South - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Weaver Vale - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Workington - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Heywood & Middleton - Likely Labour

Likely Labour -> Lean Labour

Darlington - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Stockton South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Hartlepool - Likely Labour

Likely Labour -> Lean Labour

Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - Likely SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Likely SNP

Likely SNP -> Lean SNP

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Likely SNP

Likely SNP -> Tossup/Tilts SNP


Mostly general changes in order to reflect the state of the election as I know see it. I'll probably make one more set of changes as we close in on election day.

[adma]

If *Bolsover's* shifting from Safe Lab to Lean Lab even as a non-open seat, an electoral-re-sorting earthquake is upon us.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is this only ever true of supposed "heartland Labour seats" being lost and never the opposite?

Just asking.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is this only ever true of supposed "heartland Labour seats" being lost and never the opposite?

Just asking.

Labour isn't ahead. If they had the kind of candidate that appealed  to Tory Remainers like BoJo appeals to Labour Brexiteers than there would be serious chatter about seats like Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, SW Hertfordshire, Harrogate and Knares, Hitchin & Harpenden, and the rest. But we  don't have that luxurious situation. As it is Labour are struggling to gain Chingford and Woodford Green, a seat that I have to go out on a limb on when I say they gain it via tactical voting and incumbent rejection.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, you misunderstand his (rhetorical) question. He means that why is it that when Labour lose (or are held to be at risk of losing in) places where they have held for a long time but are now quite different from what they were once (meaning that the lengthy tenure is basically archaeological),* that sort of language gets used, but when this happens to seats long held by other parties things are phrased differently. It's a fair point.

*As he won't mind me pointing out, he even lives in such a place.

[CumbrianLefty]

You can even have Canterbury at the last GE as a counter example

[Farmlands]

My predictions have not been all that bad this year, so I'm taking a stab at this election to see how I eventually do. Given the polling, I see the downward trend of the Lib Dems continuing, but ultimately being insufficient to help Corbyn become PM.

Conservative: 339 (+22)
Labour: 228 (-34)
SNP: 43 (+8)
LibDem: 15 (+3)

[Oryxslayer]

Here’s my prediction at 10 days out. I’ll make an update next week, but here’s my current expectation/model/projection, or whatever you want to call it. I keep going back and forth on quite a few seats so there will be at least marginal changes by next week.

Conservatives: 345 Seats, up 27 since 2017, working majority of 23

Labour: 209 Seats, down 53 since 2017

SNP: 41 Seats, up 6

Lib-Dems: 30 Seats, up 18

Plaid Cymru: 5 Seats, up 1

Greens: 1 Seat, no change

DUP: 9 Seats, down 1

Sinn Fein: 6 Seats, down 1

SDLP: 2 Seats, up 2

Alliance: 1 Seat, up 1

Speaker: 1 Seat


Seat Map


Seat Change Map since 2017

The general theme is Conservatives making big strides in the north, and losing a bit in the south, but that bit is far less than the multitude of seats that could have been lost if the Lib-Dems caught fire. Whenever I make an ‘out there’ prediction, I’m going to explain my logic. I’m going to break my seats down into groups, and if you disagree with anything I say here, just pipe up. I’m rather far away and can only consume news, so any extra data points are appreciated.