United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Serenity Now]

Something important to be aware of: once the campaign period begins, strict rules about broadcast media coverage for political parties are imposed. Note that most people get their news from the broadcast media and pay much more attention to the political items during an election campaign than the rest of the time. So this matters a lot.

Anyway, broadcast media coverage over the past few months has recently focused very, very heavily on the government and on the Conservative Party. Once the campaign rules kick in, just about everyone (Labour, the LibDems, the Brexit Party...) will get more airtime. This will have an effect. Exactly how much always varies, but it matters.

Or to put things more bluntly: it will not be possible for the government to run a 'people vs. parliament' (absurd concept, whatever) campaign, because the broadcast regulations will not allow for the coverage shares that might allow it.

Listening to the news breaks on popular radio stations (whether BBC or commercial) gives a useful impression of what information is reaching most voters.

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Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).

https://twitter.com/bathnesld/status/1189648562080112640

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Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).

https://twitter.com/bathnesld/status/1189648562080112640

For the benefit of those who understandably can't read the tiny text:

Survation polled 405 respondents aged 18+ living in NE Somerset with the question: “Imagine that the result in your constituency was expected to be very close between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidate, and none of the other parties were competitive. In this scenario, which party would you vote for?”

And the 2017 result, for reference:

Con 53.6%
Lab 34.7%
Lib Dem 8.3%
Grn 2.3%
Ind 1.1%

[Serenity Now]

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

It probably has the most *potential* for them outside of Brighton Pavilion given the 2015 result. Norwich South would also be a contender. However, their best bet would really need to be somewhere where parties other than the incumbent have some strength too. Back in 2010 this was the case in Brighton Pavilion but is not the case right now for either Bristol West or Norwich South.

When it comes to Bristol West I think that the 2015 result for Labour (35.7%) was probably their 'floor' and the 2017 result (65.9%) their 'ceiling' for now, so i don't see the seat changing hands even in what is likely to be one crazy-ass election nationally.

[Serenity Now]

Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.

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Still no polling from Scotland.

To me that seems pretty crazy.

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https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/why-you-should-take-yougovs-mrp-pinch-salt

So all in all, while tonight’s MRP might be right, it might not be: and even if it is right, its very existence might change the results.

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Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

This brings to mind the aphorism "All models are wrong, but some are useful." From what I've seen I find this model is useful at painting a picture at what a Conservative victory with a 10 point lead may look like, and for identifying marginals.

[Serenity Now]

Sikhs remain highly loyal to Labour, a schism in their Southall heartland at the time of the 2007 byelection (a group led by the local "community leader" passed over for the nomination defected to the Tories) ultimately didn't count for much. They have, in this country and elsewhere, suffered a fair amount of ignorant abuse from racists that was actually "meant" for Muslims - and attempts by a few in their ranks to play the sectarian (ie anti Muslim) card to boost the Tory cause have had little traction.

Hindus are a different matter admittedly, though even there it shouldn't be overstated - a clear plurality continue to support Labour and much of the pro-Tory activism there has become linked with stans for Modi, which is not universally popular. It is worth mentioning too that Priti Patel originates from the Ugandan Asian community, which has always been more pro-Tory than average due to their gratitude to the party that admitted them to the UK in the 1970s.

Hope this helps!

The reminds me of a probably useless anecdote I've been meaning to share about when I went canvassing (for Labour but don't worry, I wont be campaigning in this thread) in a marginal constituency in Middlesex last weekend. I got the impression from activists from the area that the situation in Kashmir has been an issue there locally and that the Conservative MP is (shall we say) taking sides as part of their bid for re-election. It's also possible that this may be working for said MP.

[Serenity Now]

Torygraph: Tony Blair and Sir John Major are throwing a lifeline to Marxist Jeremy Corbyn

Crikey, I thought that was your parody interpretation of the article rather than the actual headline.

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I've noticed some modelling has come out from an organisation called Datapraxis which was founded by Paul Hilder, who has been associated the the Open Democracy website and various other left-leaning online campaigns. While it doesn't seem to provide an interactive guide for all constituencies, it does provide themed reports based on modelling for selected constituencies. Here's the URL links to the reports:

https://www.dataprax.is/65-battleground-seats-for-labour
https://www.dataprax.is/65-battleground-seats-for-labour
https://www.dataprax.is/tory-landslide-or-hung-parliament
https://www.dataprax.is/seven-seats-that-could-change-brita
https://www.dataprax.is/24-seats-where-liberal-democrats-co

The first report concludes that they think there is "absolutely no chance of a Labour majority" and that the "likeliest scenario remains a significant Tory majority" but with the caveat that "Anti-Tory tactical voting, Labour Leavers coming home and increased youth turnout could block Boris Johnson from forming the next government."

I have not yet been able to look into this in enough detail to get any idea of how good or bad their model is.

[Serenity Now]

When does the latest Yougov MRP results come out?

I think at 22:00 UK time (GMT).

Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-yougov-mrp/yougov-to-release-final-mrp-poll-for-uk-election-on-december-10-idUKKBN1YA1VN