United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[afleitch]

I'll be in Florida :/

[afleitch]

I will probably be doing some on the ground activity for the first time in 8 years, even though I won't be here for the last week.

[afleitch]

Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.

[afleitch]

Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.

Are you guys going to be voting early/absentee? How does that process work in the UK?

Yeah. We'll apply for postal votes sharpish. We'll get them once the 'notice of poll' with all the candidates has been published. Then vote and post.

I think a very sizable number will vote by post because there's a risk of adverse weather and there's only 7 hours daylight where I am at that time of year (which if overcast can end up being only 4 or 5 hours...)

Which is something pollsters will have to consider as in some seats we could be looking at close to 40% or 50% of votes being cast weeks before.

[afleitch]

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

UKIP were averaging about the same as Brexit is now going into 2017. Greens too. What is curious is that the Tories ended about the same at the end as at the start and Labour cannibalised everyone including a chunk of UKIP voters.

Labour with its worst result since 1933, Tories doing better than 1987. Boris gets a thumping majority? It feels wrong. It doesn't sit right.

[afleitch]

On the other hand Survation were the least accurate pollster in the European Elections with Ipsos-MORI and YouGov the most accurate.

[afleitch]

FWIW, I expect Scottish Labour to hold onto a few seats even if they tank. The local by election in Thorniewood makes me think they will hold onto Coatbridge. Same with Midlothian and East Lothian. I think the Tories will also hold fairly firm in 6 or 7 seats. Stirling and Angus and Ochil are likely SNP pickups but the Grampian Tory gains in 2017 will either all fall fast or hold.

[afleitch]

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

It's giving some indication that the Tories are polling back at 2010-2017 levels which has given us two hung parliaments and one slender majority. In some polls they are drifting back to their 2017-early 2019 average. Labour are obviously not and Brexit are clearly still a presence even with the Tory drift upwards. The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens which is not great going into the two party echo chamber.

[afleitch]

No polls out of Scotland, but for fun here's the average of all the subsamples since the campaign period.

SNP 45
CON 20
LAB 15
LIB 11
BRX 6
GRN 3

[afleitch]

Here's a basic 'paint' map for you to colour in

[afleitch]

One thing about the London poll is that 52% of Remainers are backing Labour with only 26% backing the Lib Dems. That's worse than the 30% of backers they have in the most recent GB wide YouGov. Lib Dems underperforming, relatively, with BME voters accounts for this.

[afleitch]

Main story on BBC News site right now, probably not a super one for the government, on balance.

At least it's better for them than what's trending on Twitter

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191772096915001344

....

What annoys me is that deep down I know that JRM has not a clue what the inside of a densely packed tower block looks like. Even without smoke and raging fire.

[afleitch]

I'm thinking of doing a weekly 5 minute audio podcast from a Scottish perspective for this forum if anyone is up for that. I prefer talking to writing

Also 'Arthur' is back for the BBC Election Theme, vastly different from Rick Wakeman's prog rock perfection but welcome!

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1191309283134230528

[afleitch]

Holding up US drug, food, safety standards and having to deal with Trump as an immanent, amorphous danger as Boris attempts a Trumpian style disinformation campaign, might be a good move by Labour actually.

Because the Tories can't deny it would absolutely not happen. Even if on paper it probably wouldn't be as bad.

[afleitch]

Quick tally up of the constituency polls.  Tories are down 12, Labour down 15, Lib Dems up 15, Brexit at 8 and Greens at 2.

In terms of % rise and fall based on 2017 this gives C35 L26 LD19 B9 G7, so it's not actually far off the national polls.

What it suggests is that there's a some reassortment underway which could disproportionately help the Lib Dems. Or these polls might just be sh!t.

[afleitch]

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It was a full poll. But yes it's old.

[afleitch]

This is from Election Maps UK



This doesn't mean in anyway the same is going to happen again; but Labour are polling the same as they did during the same point in the last campaign and Brexit are only slightly ahead of UKIP (with the expectation that support will collapse) Green are also converging on their last result. For all the talk of Lab-Lib Dem switchers, the Tories are down almost as much as the Lib Dems are up.

[afleitch]

Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.

[afleitch]

Still no polling from Scotland.

[afleitch]

No polls, but 3 local by-elections in Scotland last night in Dunfermline, Rosyth and Inverness.

Here is the 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on 2017 4 party share. That's the 2017 local elections which took place one month before the GE.

SNP 43.5 (+3.8 )
CON 25.3 (-0.3)
LIB 17.2 (+9.1)
LAB 14.0 (-12.6)

[afleitch]

Some good new for the Tories in this weekends polls

BMG 0 0 0 0
YouGov +3 0 0 0
Deltapoll +4 +1 -5 0
ComRes +1 +3 -2 -2
Opinium +3 -1 -1 0

[afleitch]

This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.

[afleitch]

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

[afleitch]

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.

It's gut wrenchingly visceral. And it's because there's a level of respect shown for the town and the victims that it feels that way. I cried.

[afleitch]

No one cares.

It's Christmas. No one gives a sh!t. There's more important things to focus on. You have voters who decided who they were going to vote for since before the GE and the rest won't give it thought until after the presents are bought and they've had the works night out and they have nothing else to worry about.