United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135659 times)
mileslunn
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« on: December 03, 2019, 01:19:25 PM »

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2019, 10:59:16 PM »

Probably barring a bigger polling error than we've ever seen (being from Canada, BC 2013 and Alberta 2012 come to mind of the size of the error needed), we can rule out a Labour majority.  Even a Labour plurality is extremely unlikely and would require both a strong shift and polling error or near perfect efficiency in Labour vote (FYI, in Canada where I live in New Brunswick, Tories lost by six points vote wise but one more seats than Liberals and if Quebec is excluded, Tories won by 7 points in recent Canadian election in popular vote yet were 11 seats behind Liberals) for that to happen.  That being said anything from landslide Tory majority (over 380 seats) to another hung parliament seems plausible.  Polls might have missed 2017 as they overcorrected for underestimating Tories in 2015 so if another overcorrection again, Tories may win by even bigger margin than polls suggest.  But here are some reasons I could see a miss in both directions.

Tories Overperform

-Brexit Party vote collapses to under 2% and since in Northern Labour leave seats their support is much higher, this collapse swings heavily to Tories allowing them to not just flip seats they lost by 10 points, but even some they lost by 20-25 points in 2017 so the number of Labour leave seats they flip much larger than anticipated.

- Brexit turnout was higher than most elections so many leave voters particularly in North who are habitual non-voters see this is another Brexit referendum and show up again and vote Tory.

- In London, too many mixed signals on who to vote for tactically, so Liberal Democrats and Labour split vote allowing Tories to slip up the middle in several constituencies they would have lost otherwise.

-In commuter belt, many heavily remain constituencies where Tories got over 50% in 2017 but Liberal Democrats are expected to be competitive in don't materialize as fear of Jeremy Corbyn government causes many wealthy Tory remainers who were planning to vote Liberal Democrat to swing back to Tories at last minute

Labour overperforms

- Tactical voting is much bigger than thought and Liberal Democrats are under 5% in most constituencies and double digit support is due to margins concentrated in constituencies where they are main party likely to beat Tories so thanks to tactical voting, Liberal Democrats knock off some Tories (Labour is in single digits in those or low teens so few votes thus few wasted) while in marginals where Labour is main competitor, they hold their ground.

- Labour leavers who were thinking of voting Tory swing back to Labour as final week shifts to other issues or Tories have a major blunder.

-  Corbyn is very unpopular amongst voters even Labour so in safe Tory constituencies, Labour implodes from high 20s to low 30s to teens or single digits while in ultra safe Labour seats drops from 70s and 80s down to 50s, sort of like 2010 since if you look at votes there, quite similar in marginals to 2017, but in safe Labour or Tory seats much lower, thus shifts happen mainly in either safe or no hope seats not where it matters.  Otherwise in constituencies where it doesn't matter, reluctant Labour supporters switch to Liberal Democrats, but in marginals many hold their nose and vote Labour. (We saw this in Canada recently, where Liberals did much better than topline numbers suggest as biggest drops were in either ones they won by big margins in 2015 or lost, not in close ones).

- Brexit Party vote holds up in North so like in 2015 (many of those seats UKIP + Tories exceeded Labour), vote splits allow Labour to hold seats they wouldn't have otherwise or for Labour leavers, their past hatred of Tories too strong so they can move to Brexit, but going Tory a bridge too far.

- Young vote surges due to new registration and polls fail to pick up surge (If 18-30 year olds voted at same rate 60+ did it would be a lot closer although Tories still slightly ahead, but 4-6 points, not 9-12 points).

At this point, I would say 80% chance of a Tory majority, although only 10% it exceeds 400 seats.  A 10% chance another hung parliament but only a few seats short, so another Tory-DUP alliance.  9% chance Tories win most seats, but unable to hold power and most likely Liberal Democrats hold balance of power, but slight chance Labour + SNP + PC + Greens get over 323 so form government.  1% chance Labour wins most seats but falls short of a majority.  0.1% Labour pulls off an upset majority.  So in sum about a 90% chance Boris remains PM, 5-10% chance a compromise Labour leader becomes PM and a 1% chance Jeremy Corbyn makes it into 10 Downing Street.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2019, 12:38:40 PM »

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

Quite possible, certainly I think part of the reason for the miss in 2017 was overcorrection from 2015.  Survation and Yougov were accurate so doubt you are seeing one there, but I noticed ComRes and ICM had most Pro-Tory numbers in 2017, while are now showing the narrowest gap so for those giddy about the closing gap, those ones may be overcorrecting.  That being said I think turnout amongst younger voters which is anyone's guess will be key.  If they show up in big numbers it will be closer than polls suggest, if they have usual turhout, Tories will probably win quite comfortably.

I would also focus on seat and regional polls as this election a uniform swing will do terrible.  A uniform swing would show Labour holding a lot of their traditional Northern seats they probably wouldn't while in South show them well back in ones they are likely to hold or at least be competitive in.  A uniform swing probably wouldn't show them in danger of losing Sedgefield which they are while in the same time suggest Canterbury is lost even though I think Labour has a decent chance at holding it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2019, 04:07:09 PM »

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

Quite possible, certainly I think part of the reason for the miss in 2017 was overcorrection from 2015.  Survation and Yougov were accurate so doubt you are seeing one there, but I noticed ComRes and ICM had most Pro-Tory numbers in 2017, while are now showing the narrowest gap so for those giddy about the closing gap, those ones may be overcorrecting.  That being said I think turnout amongst younger voters which is anyone's guess will be key.  If they show up in big numbers it will be closer than polls suggest, if they have usual turhout, Tories will probably win quite comfortably.

I would also focus on seat and regional polls as this election a uniform swing will do terrible.  A uniform swing would show Labour holding a lot of their traditional Northern seats they probably wouldn't while in South show them well back in ones they are likely to hold or at least be competitive in.  A uniform swing probably wouldn't show them in danger of losing Sedgefield which they are while in the same time suggest Canterbury is lost even though I think Labour has a decent chance at holding it.

Hey, we think alike! Since we do, I'll throw on another data point that I agree with. Today I was reading something from Peter Kellner and he made a good point about the YouGov model. His basic point was that the YouGov model broadly shows whats going on in seats 'like this one' not 'exactly this one.' He brings up local cases like Barnet, since YouGov's MRP poll doesn't weight for Jews (too small of a demo, explained why they got Barnet wrong in 2017 as well), IDS and Raab's prominence in the Tory party, and Caroline Flint's pro-Brexit views in Don Valley. Essentially, if a seat has X demos and filed candidates, it should have X percentages, which is good for almost every situation. In some situations though, individual issues matter that are beyond a MRP polls capability to cover. This is why we should believe that Canterbury is more likely to stay Red than Bassetlaw, despite Canturbury having a smaller labour Margin in 2017.

Exactly and also local MPs.  Case and point is Bolsover.  On paper, this should be an easy Tory pickup, but with Dennis Skinner being a long serving and sort of a legend he might hold it.  Other interesting ones are Broxtowe and Hastings & Rye as both Tory incumbents aren't running at all in latter or as a different party and its quite likely in 2017 with a generic candidate or open seat Labour would have taken those two.  Since Tories have a bigger lead now, they will probably hold those, but if lead is reduced to under 5 they could flip.  On North Norfolk, many show Liberal Democrats still competitive, but that was a Norman Lamb constituency not LibDem, so I don't even expect it to be close and I suspect results will match other rural constituencies in Norfolk, thus Tories in mid 50s, while LDs and Labour languishing in 20s.  Even Westmorland & Lonsdale, I think Tories have a good chance of taking since Tim Farron is not leader while for Sheffield-Hallam I don't buy it will flip back to Liberal Democrats with Nick Clegg out.  It either stays Labour which is most likely or flips to the Tories which is possible despite numbers suggesting otherwise. 

Likewise MRP may miss tactical voting.  In North, Brexit party still at close to 10% in many Labour leave seats and if this swings over to Tories, you could see an even bigger Tory breakthrough here.  At same time, many wealthy posh central London constituencies like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Wimbledon, and Putney have seen a large drop in Tory support, but Liberal Democrats and Labour splitting the vote equally so if that continues, Tories win those, but if voters coalesce behind either, then they will lose all of those.  Even Rushcliffe with Kenneth Clarke gone, will probably be closer than in past elections as it is becoming more a Nottinham suburb as opposed to rural although Labour would need to be ahead nationally to actually flip the seat so I suspect it will stay Tory, but with Clarke being a staunch remainer and more centrist than most, he could probably appeal to middle of the road voters that will be tough to hold.  So I wouldn't be surprised if whenever Labour returns to power, they win Rushcliffe, but again too far behind and not enough time this time around to win it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2019, 03:02:04 AM »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

A lot of it is geographical.  Northwest region of England, particularly Liverpool has the largest Catholic and also London is somewhat higher and those areas tend to go Labour.

When I would be interested is how Hindus are leaning?  BME lean heavily Labour, but I've heard Tories do reasonably well amongst Hindus and looking at Muslim numbers that would suggest Labour is ahead amongst Hindus, but a lot more competitive.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2019, 06:39:58 PM »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Not sure about last election, but in 2006 Jewish community went 54% Liberal vs. 25% Conservative, but by 2011 totally flipped around.  Pretty sure they've gone Conservative since as Thornhill where largest used to be a Liberal riding but is now one of the safest Tory ones.  Mind you Harper was very pro-Israel so unlike in UK it was less about anti-Semitism of progressive parties (Liberals in Canada are more pro-Israel than British Tories if you look at UN voting record), but under Harper Canada was one of the few countries aside US that stood firmly with Israel.

In US its true Jewish community tends to vote heavily Democrat although GOP swung from 21% in 2008 to 30% in 2012.  With Trump the fact most Jews in the US live in large metropolitan areas and are more likely to have a college degree makes him a tough sell.  Historically I think they leaned left as left had a stronger record on minority rights than right did.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2019, 09:13:48 PM »

I think at this point, its pretty much a certainty that the Tories will win most seats and unless a lot goes right for Labour, a Tory majority is almost a near certainty.  You would need tactical voting on a stage never seen and a huge youth surge just to prevent a narrow Tory majority.  So at this point a Tory majority most likely, quite possibly a landslide.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2019, 06:57:30 PM »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
And Bolsover as a flip while High Peak is an easy hold.   Hmm

High Peak is very touristy area and generally that demographic is more friendly to progressive parties while Bolsover is fairly rural and was a former coal mining area but voted 70% leave.  Dennis Skinner may still hang on, but if he does, it will be due to his personal popularity.  Being 87, if he dies in the next five years or quits, there is a good chance the Tories will pick it up in a by-election unless they become wildly unpopular.  Still if you look at all the close ones, each party will win some they are slightly behind and each will lose a few slightly ahead and you will have a few upsets probably due to local reasons that the MRP won't pick up.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2019, 11:33:02 PM »


What's interesting here is Tories have almost identical share in each region as in 2017, only change is in each Labour has fallen thus helping Tories seatwise.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2019, 04:53:14 AM »

Who will win the white male without a college degree vote? Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn?

BoJo by a landslide.  Amongst whites, Tories consistently poll 2% higher than what they have nationally so that puts them around 45%.  Amongst males also somewhat higher than females so Tories around 47-48% amongst white males and considering Labour leading narrowly amongst those with degrees that likely means Tories are north of 50% amongst white males without a college degree.  Off course age is the biggest factor as Tories have massive lead amongst 65+ no matter how you slice the electorate and likewise Labour has massive lead amongst under 35 no matter how you slice the electorate so a 25 year old white male without a college degree probably is more likely to vote Labour than Tory.  But the tipping point age wise for this group is probably early 30s while overall its probably early 40s.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2019, 04:55:11 AM »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points

Because he's facing Jeremy Corbyn.
So this is what a mix of smears and austerity going on for years has done to the British psyche. Hopefully there is a victory for Labour here to reverse the damage stat.

A Corbyn win could damage British economy so badly the Tories will need much harsher austerity to clean up after him.  Only saving grace is no chance of a Corbyn majority so most of his promises won't see light of day.  Most likely if a hung parliament, just PM long enough to see through another referendum and then another election.  May get some policies passed where there is consensus with SNP and Liberal Democrats but ones that go further than both those probably not likely to see light of day in next parliament assuming off course its a hung parliament.  I still think a Tory majority is the most likely outcome.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2019, 05:10:35 AM »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing? 🤔

Black British vote heavily Labour.  While not divided by each race, they use the term BAME which is Black, Asian, and Middle Eastern and most polls show Labour in low 60s, while Tories in low 20s.  Off course within those groups you get variation.  I believe the Chinese community favours the Tories, but they are small enough only have a minor impact, while South Asians and Blacks who are the main non-white groups, they heavily favour Labour.  Its a big problem for the Tories in metropolitan areas.  Also if turnout is high enough could save some of the Birmingham suburban seats as well as some marginals in West Yorkshire that have large BAME populations yet voted heavily leave.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2019, 12:45:42 PM »

I find that people frequently misunderstand what a Portillo moment is. It isn't just 'someone high profile losing their seat' - there were plenty of those in 1997 and in every election since.

There are two elements to it - first it needs to be some so high profile that their absence from parliament fundamentally shifts the future of their party. Portillo losing his seat meant he couldn't run for the leadership of the Tory party for instance. Second, it needs to be completely unexpected. Saying 'I think x is a candidate for a Portillo moment' means that x cannot be a Portillo moment, because you expect it as a possibility. The real Portillo moment would be y losing their seat that nobody thought was even remotely likely to flip.

Therefore, Boris or Raab can't be Portillo moments this election because it's now fairly common knowledge their seats are at least somewhat vulnerable. If Corbyn or Patel lost, then that would be a Portillo moment. Of course, neither of them would lose in a trillion years, but you get the point...

Angela Rayner going down in Ashton-under-Lyne would be the best example of a 'Portillo moment' should it happen: up and coming shadow cabinet minister and potential future leader, strongly disliked by her political opponents, who has a seat considered safe (though not utterly bombproof like Corbyn's). Rayner's current majority of 28.4% is pretty similar to Portillo's '92 majority of 31.8% as well.

There has also been some (probably false) murmurs that Labour is deeply unhappy with what they're seeing in the Ashton constituency and YouGov only has her winning by 12%. People forget that in the run up to '97 there was a poll in the Observer only showing Portillo winning Enfield Southgate by 3%, so the warning signs were there but most people just chose to ignore them. This is similar to the situation with Rayner as there has been some (probably not credible) reports that she could be in trouble that most people (including me) are choosing to dismiss.

In all likelihood she will hold the seat easily but if somehow she manages to lose, it would definitely be the next 'Portillio moment'.

Another one would be Laura Pidcock losing her seat in Northwest Durham.  She represents the hard left of the party and some have tipped her as a successor.  Her seat also part of the Red wall, but went leave heavily in Brexit and she won by 18 points in 2017 so not an insurmountable obstacle to overcome.  MRP only gives her a 5 point lead.

Also Dennis Skinner losing while no surprise should get is mention as he is a legend for the party, yet MRP suggests he is tipped to lose his seat of Bolsover but still close.  Interestingly enough although not running, Kenneth Clarke's seat of Rushcliffe only shows Tories 10 only ten points ahead, but that is a whole different talking point, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour wins that one in 2024.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2019, 02:52:01 AM »

I have a potentially stupid question: Is there no parliament as of now? BoJo's and Corbyn's Wikipedia articles say their term as MP expired on Nov 6? And their district article says current officeholder is vacant? I know the House of Commons is out of session, but MPs should still be in office?

No in UK, once writ drops, all MPs cease to be MPs until the election is completed.  PM and cabinet ministers through remain in their positions but caretaker role only.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2019, 06:30:26 PM »

How many think this is a re-alignment election or just a temporary blip and many traditional Labour voters will come back with Brexit done and Corbyn gone (assuming his replacement is actually better)?

Looking at the results and trends, I think some of the red wall seats were already trending Tory since 2010 so they've probably lost them except in strong wins.  This is particularly true in the more rural ones.  I do think however in the suburban and smaller urban ones, Labour with a better leader can win they back, but won't be automatic and also seemed constituencies where they had incumbents they did better than ones without so could be an obstacle.

That being said Labour will need the Tories to screw up really badly to win a majority in 2024.  Their best realistic hope is to try to get a hung parliament then hope they can win backing of other parties.  And with the grip momentum has on the party, they may need to lose another election.

In the long run I think Labour's victory path is going to be very tough without Scotland (up until 2015 they dominated it) and they probably need to sweep the urban areas and suburbs.  Sort of similar model to Trudeau's win in Canada and Democrats in midterms.  Problem is Canadian Liberals and US Democrats are far more akin to Liberal Democrats than Labour so won't be easy.

I do think though the Tories biggest risk is becoming overconfident assuming this is a permanent re-alignment in their favour.  Our Tories in Canada had a similar result in 2011 and they took this position and paid bitterly for it.  But if Johnson understands the reasons he gained those votes and I think he does, I think its quite possible they could hold a lot of them in 2024.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2019, 08:20:58 PM »

So who will be the LibDems leader now that Swinson has lost her seat?

Maybe Layla Moran.  Young articulate, female and would fit in idea of having a younger female leader like you see in Finland, Denmark, and New Zealand.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2019, 05:26:41 AM »

A few questions for some British posters here.

1.  Why such the large divergence in the two Plymouth seats both in votes and in direction?

2.  Beside Brexit, how did Tory vote nearly triple in a decade in Stoke upon Trent?

3.  How come Black Country saw swings around 20 points towards Tories.  I though it had a large BAME population which would have blunted this somewhat.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2019, 11:28:50 PM »

Sensationalist headline (Labour needed to gain 60 seats to win a majority and that had to include some ambitious targets), but interesting all the same.


At beginning of election this made sense as their goal like any party was to form government.  Where they messed up was failure to pivot at midpoint when it became clear they weren't going to form government.  A good party has both a defensive and offensive strategy and can pivot quickly as poll numbers changes.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #18 on: December 23, 2019, 09:54:52 AM »

Labour did achieve some limited movement in the polls, however, and possibly gambled a bit that they would be out like they were in 2017. As it turns out, there are some indicators of a late pro-Tory swing - if so, that couldn't really be dealt with effectively in the short time available (even were that course of action practically possible at all)

There was some movement towards Labour but very gradual not a surge like 2017 and overall indicators on vote retention, regionals as well as leadership numbers all suggested they were going to do worse. 

As for late pro-Tory swing, I think the few polls showing Labour closing gap in final days probably caused same Labour leave supporters thinking of going Brexit Party to vote Tory as noticed Brexit Party was strongest in safe Labour seats, in marginals was quite weak.  Likewise looks like in London area, some Tory remainers thinking of going Liberal Democrat swung back to Tories.  Many Tory remainers and a lot in business community felt Brexit was bad but a Corbyn government even worse.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2020, 08:49:50 PM »

Looking at cumulative swings, here is a map showing the accumulated Tory-Labour swing from 1997 to 2019. Have only included England & Wales, given the rise of the SNP in Scotland.



Here's one illustrating the accumulated swing as it differs from the overall national swing over the same time (12.3%):


Any reason why Merseyside is the one area to swing towards Labour?  it seems Liverpool area has a viscereal hatred of Tories and votes more heavily Labour than anywhere else.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2020, 06:24:30 PM »

How come Staffordshire has seen a much harder swing to right.  It seems Tory vote there has soared and in Stoke on Trent almost tripled in last decade.  During Blair era, Tories languished in teens there, now they are getting over 50% there.  While you've seen other shifts, I don't believe any quite as dramatic.  Only other I can think of is Durham County but being quite rural and white, Tory share of the vote seemed unusually low for its demographics.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2020, 01:42:15 PM »

  In looking over the London vote going more and more toward Labour over the last few elections, how much of that is due to an ever growing non-white share of the electorate, and how much to the white vote in London also going more to Labour?

A lot of it is due to growing non-white, but also in last two elections age was main fault line rather than social class and London on average has more young people than other parts of UK.  Also even amongst whites, generally those living in mixed areas not just in UK but other countries too are more likely to lean left than those in overwhelmingly white areas.
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