United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.

FPP is always evil, of course, but it is particularly comically ill-suited for an area like Northern Ireland.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Note that the only significant difference between these two polls are the Labour and Green scores - which, in both, add up to exactly 27%. So if that pattern holds, it looks like it's a matter of how many votes the Greens will spoil for Labour.

(Of course, a lot more than that could change in a month and a half.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

A vote for Labour is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Hard Brexit. For him, worker's rights, human rights, jobs created by intra-EU trade, industry and communities supported by it, the threat of companies leaving the UK and the threat of the NHS being sold off to American big pharma are all unimportant because the EU once said something nasty and capitalist. On Brexit terms, there's no difference between Labour and the Tories and its Corbyn Labour's one great skill that they have managed to convince millions this isn't the case.

A vote for genuine Remain representation in Parliament is much better than that. Unfortunately, a large number of Remainers will see it your way and there will be 500+ MPs committed to Hard Brexit in the next parliament. Because of that, I'd be ecstatic with 20 Lib Dem MPs.

TLDR; "I'm voting Labour because I don't prioritise Brexit and I agree with them on the issues" is a stance I'm perfectly fine with. I don't agree with it but it's a reasonable one. "I'm voting Labour because they'll prevent Hard Brexit" is ridiculous and counterproductive to the Remain cause.

And before anyone points it out, yes I'm bitter and my distaste of the whole situation is bringing emotion into my judgement, which is obviously not ideal.

You're not being "bitter" or "emotional", you're making sh**t up out of whole cloth.

If you want to criticize Corbyn's position on the EU that's more than fine with me, but you're obviously not interested in engaging with reality at all, so there's no point in arguing with you at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Your daily reminder that Tories are sociopaths.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.

No it isn't; it's the *new* neoliberal right!  If you get my drift.  (Also cf Justin Trudeau)

The closing line of a certain song by the Who comes to mind...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Farage has probably sunk his party's chance of having any relevance in the future. Good riddance.

This probably marginally helps Tories, but I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyone who's paying attention can see that, in most constituencies, a vote for Labour is their best bet to stop Brexit. That doesn't mean that's how they'll vote, of course. This is the last election I'd ever hazard a prediction for at this point. But I'm at least hoping they will.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, why is the SDLP surging back into relevance all of a sudden?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sinn Fein are abstentionists, so people feel that's giving the Tories half a seat for free.

The swings suggest that it's mostly Alliance voters switching to them though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before.

I vaguely remember you discussing that before, but I don't remember all the details, and I'd be very interested if you'd like to elaborate on it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

FPP is a cancer. There's a lot I like about Ed Miliband, but his contribution to torpedoing AV will go down as a black mark in history.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the debate being streamed online somewhere?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The fact that folks like the Financial Times are terrified of the manifesto is precisely what makes it so good.

It's such a shame that Corbyn is such a sh*tty messenger, because the message itself is amazing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t);

I should clarify that that's not what I meant by "bullsh*t culture war issues". Basically, the distinction I make is between issues that are about providing symbolic benefits to a constituency vs those that are about material benefits. There are certainly plenty of LGBT-related issues that fall into the latter category (as there are plenty of Brexit-related issues - and Labour's position on the material component of Brexit is indeed excellent all around). There's a difference between those questions and the questions that are mainly around the affirmation of symbols (of which the Scottish independence question is one, because let's face it, the material consequences of it are impossible to assess one way or the other, and even if they weren't, they clearly aren't what's driving support or opposition to independence).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Breaking: Wolf Swears he Won't Eat the Sheep This Time

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, at least all the leaders will presumably sit through the whole interview and not ragequit 10 minutes in. Which is more than can be said for a certain transatlantic "intellectual".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Swinson is as charismatic as my mom.

That's a horrible thing to say about the person who gave you life.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms). I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.

Yes, we all know you're a delusional hack who lives in an alternate reality of his own making. Nobody's trying to make you come to your senses anymore, we know that's not going to happen. I'm not going to stop stating basic facts just because they upset you, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the Tories are threatening to use the tools of government to enact retribution against unsympathetic news outlets. Very cool stuff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ, what a disgusting post. I didn't realize what a craven sycophant you were.

Channel 4 is a public entity just like the BBC with a duty to be impartial

Which it was. It set out an impartial rule about which party figures were invited to attend and which weren't, and reacted impartially to the figures that chosen not to attend.

and the government can amend its constitution as it sees fit.

Really, dude? Really? I'm sure you would totally be saying that if PM Corbyn was proposing the same thing.

The BBC would not pull a silly stunt such as this.

Good. Then people who dislike such "silly stunt" are free to watch the BBC instead.

It is frankly odd that Gove would be considered unacceptable to represent the Tories in a debate on the climate, given that he has handled issues relating to that for the past two years and thus is probably the best briefed person within the party for that role

If the rule is "party leaders only" then it's "party leaders only". If Corbyn is going to show up, there's no reason BoJo can't, regardless of anyone else's real or supposed qualifications.

- unless of course, like all the other debates, it’s simply a Potemkin debate not meant to address the issues in a serious way.

Irrelevant to the argument.

Nobody watches Channel 4 anyway.

Well then I guess political tampering into news channels is totally fine as long as they're smaller channels

[Antonio the Sixth]

The impartiality of state media is premised on governments' commitments not to tamper with their content for political purposes. I'm genuinely baffled that I have to explain that to you. The fact that your only retorts are "well, they legally can do that" and "well, it's no big deal, there are other news sources" shows that you either know that and are being intellectually dishonest, or legitimately just don't value the idea of having state news outlets that aren't beholden to the government of the day. Which, fine, I guess, but just be open about it.