United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Queen Isuelt]

I have some questions about races.

Scotland
- did any seats in Scotland vote leave in the referendum?
- what % of the snp vote voted to leave the European Union. Are they politically homeless with the SNP being so for leaving the uk but staying in EU?

Wales
- Aberconwy has a local council rep for labour who ran in 2017 and reduced the majority from 4-5k to under 1000 votes. The sitting MP has stood down and the tories have a candidate that was introduced in November that lives in Suffolk. Why is the labour candidate not winning?
- Does the remain/tactical vote work with Plaid? I know they did a pack with Liberals and Greens but in races where they get 10% they hurt Labour like Aberconwy.
- Ynys Mon - why is this such a volatile 4 way marginal?

England
- Why are the liberals running candidates in labour seats where they have no chance of winning? (Red wall) Is it true liberals hate labour more than the conservatives and they don’t care who wins so just run the candidate?
- What are the well off remainers who typically vote Tory doing with their vote in the north/midlands? Any Tory remainers moving over?
- why is Loughborough a show me seat? (Predicted virtually every winner). It has a well regarded university but unlike other uni towns) Is Canterbury similar to Loughborough?
- why is the West Midlands so anti-EU? Stoke, Wolverhampton, West Bromwich- labour predicted to lose 10-12 seats here.
- what caused Cornwall seats to swing dramatically to labour? They were always polling very low and in third place and liberals had mps here and it completely changed.

- What happens if Tories win majority and Boris loses in Uxbridge? Who goes to the Queen and asks her to be Prime Minister ?

[Queen Isuelt]

So apparently if Boris Johnson loses Uxbridge tomorrow night, the Tories will give him a peerage and put him in the unelected House of Lords (similar to senate) so he carry on being Prime Minister.

Iain Duncan Smith, Dominic Raab and Theresa De Villere giving same assurances but timing different.

On Twitter (melt down) the BBCs chief political correspondent Laura Kuenssberg has broken election laws and been referred to the police by the electoral commission for disclosing postal vote counts in live tv. (Big no-no). Guardian reporting they believe ‘bridges burnt for her to continue’ and she has a job lined up in Tory CCHQ/Boris government.

[Queen Isuelt]

With regards to races, speaker could lose in Chorley to a man who changed his name to ‘mark Brexit smith’.

Foreign secretary - Dominic Raab - is in deep trouble in affluent but remain Surrey. (Actor Hugh Grant campaigning for Liberal Democrat’s)

Liberal Democrat’s costing Labor party 25 seats in wales, midlands and north. If liberals get their deposits (5%) in conservative-labor marginals then that’s the difference between a Tory government and a hung parliament. So the liberals are ensuring Brexit not stopping it.

[Queen Isuelt]

How would it go down in the uk if Boris lost Uxbridge and was put in the House of Lords to remain prime minister.

Nothing the uk public can do about it but it would stink no?

[Queen Isuelt]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0

Full YouGov MRP poll by each race. Very accurate in 2017. Got laughed at for predicting Canterbury would flip (a seat that voted Tory for over 100 years) seeing a 20% swing.

[Queen Isuelt]

No way turnout will beat 2017 - middle of summer long days. Today’s weather is very bleak - ice cold winds in labour heartlands. Tories will win if labour doesn’t get vote out which is looking unlikely

[Queen Isuelt]

Failure for the lib democrats and labour and left to not shoot themselves for a tory to win.
1) Chingford - Tory 23,481 Lab 22219 LD 2744
2) Chipping Barnet - Tory 25745, Lab 24533, LD 5932
3) Cities of London & Westminster - Tory 17049 Lab 13096 11624
4) Wimbledon - Tory 20373 LD 19745 Lab 12543
5) Carshalton & Wallington - Tory 20822 LD 20193 LAB 6081
6) Esher & Walton - Tory 31132 LD 28389 LAB 2838
7) Hendon - Tory 26878 LAB 22648 LD 4628
Finchley - Tory 24162 LD 17600 LAB 13347
9) Kensington - Tory 16768 lab 16618 ld 9312

outside london
1) Cheadle - Tory 25694 LD 23358 LAB 6851
2) Hazel Grove - Tory 21592 LD 17169 LAB 5508
3) Heywood/Middleton - Tory 20453 lab 19790, ld 2073
4) Bury South - Tory 22034 lab 21632 ld 2315
5) Bury North - Tory 21660 lab 21555 ld 1584
6) Leigh - Tory 21266 lab 19301 lab 2252
7) Warrington South - Tory 28187 Lab 26177 ld 5732
Dewsbury - Tory 26179 Lab 24618 ld 2406
9) High Peak - Tory 24844 Lab 24254 ld 2750
10) Keighley - Tory 25298 Lab 23080 ld 2573
11) Blyth Valley - Tory 17440 Lab 16728 LD 2151
12) Durham Northwest - Tory 19990 lab 18846 ld 2831
13) Stoke Central - Tory 14557 Lab 13887 ld 1116
14) Birmingham Northfield - Tory 19957 lab 18317 ld 1961
15) Truro - Tory 27237 Lab 22676 ld 7150
16) Rushcliffe - tory 28745 lab 21122 ld 9600
17) Winchester tory 28430 ld 27445 lab 2723
18) reading west tory 24393 lab 20276 ld 4460
19) bridgend - tory 18193 lab 17036 ld 2368
20) delyn - tory 16756 lab 15891 ld 2346
21) aberconwy - tory 14687 lab 12653 pc 2704 ld 1821
22) ynys mon - tory 12959 lab 10991 pc 10418
23) dumfries - tory 22678 snp 20873 lab 4745
24) dumfriesshire - tory 22611 snp 18830 lab 4172
25) berwickshire tory 25747 snp 20599 ld 4287 lab 2513
26) moray tory 22112 snp 21599 lab 2432 ld 2269
27) aberdeenshire tory 22752 snp 21909 ld 6253 lab 2431

As Jo Swinson says "we've thrown most people under the bus and it's out own fault"