United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[CumbrianLefty]

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

On each occasion (2008 and 2012) he actually performed a bit less well than polls predicted.

(and his personal popularity was greater, at the very least he was less toxic to non-Tories than now)

[CumbrianLefty]

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election.

And sorry, but this is a ridiculous statement.

Those elections were basically *nothing* but a glorified opinion poll on Brexit (this tendency being all the greater due to their essential meaninglessness)

Whatever happens in the coming GE, those hoping for that yet again are likely to be disappointed.

[CumbrianLefty]

All I can say is thank God the will-they-won't-they hold an election storyline is finally over. The most tedious week in the history of British politics.

Well its not *finally* over until the election bill passes the Lords and becomes law......

[CumbrianLefty]

Ironically, Farage and the Brexit Party doing well are the remainers' best hope in this election.

Just as the LibDems and Greens taking lots of previous Labour votes is the best hope for Brexiteers.

That's how it works.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour had no choice but to go along with an election soon once Swinson in particular decided to support it for their own short-termist and narrow party political considerations.

But maybe some in the party think they can defy the odds again? Crazy thought, I know.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not to mention that if the BxP only run a token number of candidates they will lose their right to PPBs and to participate in any debates that might be set up during the campaign.

Either run in most seats or not at all seem to be the only two credible options for them.

[CumbrianLefty]

A reminder that Survation were the most accurate pollster in 2017 (that is not including YouGov's constituency based modelling that is separate from their normal polling) Would have been in 2015 as well, if they hadn't got cold feet.

Talking of YouGov, I see their latest manages to have Labour down 2 whilst the Tories and LibDems are unchanged. Hmmm.

[CumbrianLefty]

On the other hand Survation were the least accurate pollster in the European Elections with Ipsos-MORI and YouGov the most accurate.

Well I suppose that "wrong for meaningless elections, accurate for the ones that matter" isn't such a bad claim

Hopefully one thing this coming election will do is dump all the extravagant claims made on the back of that joke exercise into the dustbin. Forever.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

As explained before, they can repeal it but will have to replace it with something. Even if that is just a bill saying power to call an election should be solely the preserve of the sitting PM again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

They almost certainly won't do that, but this scotches the idea they were going to contest a few dozen Labour seats only (though that "rumour" emerged from Seb Payne, the biggest Tory shill at the FT, so was never reliable)

[CumbrianLefty]

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

Dunno about Farron either - he has been working his constituency *hard* since the 2017 scare.

[CumbrianLefty]

You are trying to Yanksplain to us how elections work in this country. OK.......

[CumbrianLefty]

How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

They aren't "likely" to win any, and have non-negligible chances in maybe half a dozen.

[CumbrianLefty]

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

There's more, because, you know, the Sunday papers...

Deltapoll: Con 40, Lab 28, LDem 14, BP 11, SNP 3, Greens 2, Others 2
YouGov: Con 39, Lab 27, LDem 16, BP 7, Others ?
ComRes: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 17, BP 10, SNP 4, Greens 3, Others 1

Labour up six points with YouGov in a matter of days, actually down with ComRes - very much against the trend (though they have consistently been the least favourable pollster for the Tories recently)

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1190916214161379328

Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1190916214161379328

Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.

If they campaign on Leave, the Lib Dems will make sure that the people will never forget that.

It is pretty inconceivable that most in the party will campaign to leave whatever happens.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's the one I referred to above, Labour are up 6 points not 3.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...

We will certainly get hard Brexit if large number of "remainers" waste their votes on the LibDems or Greens in seats that they could not possibly win, but Labour might.

[CumbrianLefty]

If there is a change of government, they will go along with that (even if not too enthusiastically)

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1191404112249860096

All told, this is fairly good news for everyone. The Tories are still in the lead and gained more than Labour. Labour's also gained and is within spitting distance of the lead in a way they aren't in other polls. The Lib Dems and Brexit Party only dropped by small amounts, so easily dismissed as statistical noise.

Elsewhere, the Brexit Party PPC (prospective parliamentary candidate, for those not in the UK) dropped out and switched to the Tories. This is good news for the Tories, as the seat in question, Dudley South, is just the kind of place where a strong Brexit Party presence could cost the Tories a seat they cannot afford to lose.

Though the changes in this poll are compared to a previous one nearly a month ago - the Tories gained between then and late October in most polling.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tonight's/tomorrow's front page for the Borisograph - bizarre really isn't strong enough.

[CumbrianLefty]

Williamson, Hepburn and Godsiff all rejected as candidates by the NEC.

Excellent news

Of course the first named will attract the usual cranks in his support - its actually a very good way of telling who on the Labour left is actually serious about getting and using power, and who aren't.

[CumbrianLefty]

Watson was at least gracious enough to time his announcement to overshadow Johnson's set-piece campaign launch in the evening, rather than Corbyn's big speech earlier today.

No I have never particularly liked or trusted him, and think the Leech business was very very bad. But he will still be a hard act to follow for his "wing" of the party.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192175698431090692?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

There is no actual evidence this is planned, its a totally unsourced rumour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why are the Greens standing Molly Scott Cato, one of their bigger names, in Stroud? Grudge against Drew?

She is local to that area, isn't she?

But also Stroud saw one of the earliest ever "Green surges" (three decades ago now) and remains something of an iconic place in the party's mindset even though they have never really done well there in GEs.