United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[urutzizu]

It would be actually crazy if the Tories weren't led by a carnival-barking ideological jellyfish who has chosen to stand with the most grotesque and unpopular wing of his party in an attempt to ram through a Brexit policy that a consistent majority of Britons really don't like.

The most recent polling on Boris Deal vs Remain that I could find.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1186263787109785602

Granted, it will be further scrutinized during the election but anything remotely close to that is enough for him. Added that he is polling a quite consistent ~15-20% of the 2016 Remain vote as well.

[urutzizu]

Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.

Whats his chances? Respect got 25% there back in 2005...

[urutzizu]

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off.

I remember there was a debate about this point back in 2015 after the Tories won. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that at least in Britain people do generally become more conservative as they age. And considering that the UK is a aging society, perhaps the future is not so gloomy for the Conservatives..

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910

[urutzizu]

It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it.

Indeed. To quote the (former) Brexit Party Candidate in Crawley:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey/status/1193868199361753088?ref_src=twsrc...

[urutzizu]

Good news for Jeremy, retaking second place from Swinson.

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1196433591904952320

[urutzizu]

Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.

I have not seen a poll, but my guess is that most lean Conservative. While there is a very vocal anti-brexit crowd among the Central European Diaspora, they are outnumbered by a far larger number of British Citizens living in Australia, Canada and the US, who could be expected to be rather more sympathetic to the whole Brexit Empire Commonwealth nostalgia. And the largest group of Expats on the Continent are in retiree-heavy Spain, and that is a highly pro-tory age group. Anecdotal, of course, but I seem to remember an Interview that the BBC did with them before the Referendum and many of them seemed to be highly supportive of leave, seemingly oblivious to the consequences it would have for them personally.

Perhaps this is the Reason why the Conservatives have traditionally been supportive of demands to allow votes for life for British living abroad, while the Labour Party has been opposed (despite wanting to extend the franchise to other groups); they suspect that overseas voters lean conservative.
Or perhaps it could be rather a more old fashioned tory idea of an ethnic bond of all British people, and allowing overseas Citizens to vote is a a way of 'preserving their connection to the motherland'.

[urutzizu]

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have a feeling that this confirmation bias at play here, though.

The TV audience yesterday was 6.7 Million by the way.

[urutzizu]

Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

[urutzizu]

I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.

I am not sure whether it is so outlandish or not thought out. It was only recently proposed by the Chairman of the Commons affairs committee Tom Tugenthat (Con) and was supported by both the last two Governors of HK before the Handover. The extent of emigration to Britain would likely not massively increase in the immediate term, HK and Britain have comparable living standards and social security systems. The main idea is giving HKers an Insurance policy of sorts against a Chinese crackdown like 1989. People in Hong Kong are already entitled to a form of second class British nationality (BN(O) status), the history of which is mired in quite racist ideas, but without right of abode in the UK.

But I do take your point that they can promise unicorns as they are not going to form Government.

[urutzizu]

Yougov: 42(0)/30(0)/16(+1)/4(0)/3(-1)   21-22 Nov

Tory Manifesto will be released tomorrow.

[urutzizu]

I have been reading through the Tory manifesto and there strike me to be some quite severe inconsistencies on immigration policy, perhaps even deliberate ones:

They say the want an "Australian-style points system" where there is no preference on country of origin but rather only on points allocated based of education, english skills, criminal record etc. But they also say that they will bring down overall immigration numbers (p.20). And they state that immigrants entering will need a clear job offer.    

But that is not how the Australian system (or the Canadian one for that matter) work at all. Points-based Systems work on the principle that a job offer is not contingent for immigrating - those with a job offer and sponsored by their employer have already proven that their skills are needed - the Tory plans seem to impose double requirements - that defeats the entire point behind a points-based system.
Also Points-based systems do not decrease the numbers immigrating - quite the opposite - Australia and Canada have far higher immigration per capita then Britain does. Some 30% of Australias population is born abroad.
My hunch is that they are (or they are banking on voters) confusing it with Australias policy of mandatory offshore detention for asylum seekers - but that has nothing to do with a points-based system.

They also want to stop people with criminal records (p.21) entering and also ban people from entering with EU national ID cards that can be forged easier than passports. But this cannot be enforced de facto. Ireland would still be obliged under EU law to accept EU citizens with criminal records and ID cards. Anyone could then freely pass on into NI and then into GB without any Border Checks.

This is not thought out.

[urutzizu]

No comment.

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2019/11/lo-fi-boriswave-why-are-conservatives-posting-71-minute-hypnotic-videos-youtube

[urutzizu]

Just so we're all clear, this is a forecast for an election two weeks away based on a poll that's nearly a week old using a model that specifically doesn't account for local campaigns. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it is hardly conclusive.

Sort of. The Interviews were done from the 21st up to and until Yesterday. So part of the data is a week or so old, but much of it is new as well. Agree with your general point though.

[urutzizu]

Tbh. even for those that watched the Debate, it seemed to me at times as if the Ice Sculptures were actually doing less bad then some of the Humans.

[urutzizu]

Hm. This one shows a different story.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1200852564457205760

Also noticable is that even with the BMG one there seems to be on the face of it no direct Cons to Lab transfers. But that is impossible to tell by only the headline figures of course.

[urutzizu]

Apparently the latest YouGov had the Tories "only" six points ahead before some "undecided" voters were reallocated - this may help explain reported jitters (both locally and at HQ) recently?

Not that I am disinclined to believe you - quite the opposite in fact - but where is this Information from?

[urutzizu]

When I would be interested is how Hindus are leaning?  BME lean heavily Labour, but I've heard Tories do reasonably well amongst Hindus and looking at Muslim numbers that would suggest Labour is ahead amongst Hindus, but a lot more competitive.

Labours relationship with the Hindu community has gone quite bad recently. Hindus (and Sikhs) are considerably more affluent then other minorities which already during Camerons times made them significantly more competitive for the Conservatives, but recently there has been escalating row after Labour Conference in the Summer passed a motion that condemned Indias treatment of Kashmir. The Indian Government attacked Labour for that and since then the overseas BJP have been meddling in the election by trying to get the Diaspora to vote Tory. Labour later had to u-turn on that. After the Chief Rabbi statement, the Hindu Council of Britain supported him, and went even further accusing Labour of being a "anti-Hindu party". There was also controversy due to accusations of Labour refusing to field Indian Candidates. Stockport was the only open Labour seat where there is one running, and in Keith Vaz Seat, Leicester East one of the Seats with the Highest Indian population in the Country, a shortlisted Indian Candidate was allegedly dropped and a different one imposed from the Leadership.
The Tories on the other Hand have with People like Priti Patel strongly pushed a message trying to appeal to that community, and people like Bob Blackman in Harrow have basically been touting the BJP line.

Of course important to keep in mind the vast majority of British Hindus do not care much about Kashmir or anything like that when Voting, and Issues like Brexit is going to likely be far more important for them. According to Polling British Indians split about 60-40 for Remain in the Referendum with Higher Leave support among Sikhs than Hindus. So presumably there is not that much ground for the Conservatives to gain. The Lib Dems could certainly do well among many of the Suburban London Entrepreneur/Doctor kind of Hindus, I imagine.

Yougov did a poll among British Indians just recently (only 40% of British Indians are Hindu though) and the Numbers were 34(lab) 24(con) 18(lib), so that should give one a good indication.

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203004409304821760

The Clock is ticking down on Labour at an alarming rate. Corbyn needs to win the Debate tonight, and decisively so it would seem. If he makes it about Trustworthiness he can, I am convinced.

[urutzizu]

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party’s lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0

[urutzizu]

Fun economist diagram with sliders and weights that allow one to filters seats by dominant demographics.

There's a Scottish constituency that voted 61% Leave? Huh.

Common Fisheries Policy had a very significant impact there. Banff and Buchan is home to the Fishing ports of Fraserburgh and Peterhead. Even the SNP dont like that particular part of EU membership.

[urutzizu]

21 Savage probably voting Corbyn.

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204752226079690752

The Last Opinium Poll before the 2017 election (Compared to Results):
Con: 43% (43%)
Lab: 36% (41%)
Lib:    8%  (8%)
UKIP: 5%  (2%)


https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1204780770142932992

Junk pollster, but was 41(Lab)-39(Cons) last Time

[urutzizu]

How would it go down in the uk if Boris lost Uxbridge and was put in the House of Lords to remain prime minister.

Nothing the uk public can do about it but it would stink no?

Not sure where those allegations about Boris going to the Lords came from, but would be much easier and more likely in my opinion to just have a Tory MP in a safe seat go to the Chiltern Hundreds (i.e. Resign) and let Boris get in to the Commons through a By-election. Alex Douglas-Hume is the only recent precedent for this, and that was the course of action.  

In other news: Last BMG Poll: 41(-)/32(-)/14(-)/4(-)/3(-1)

[urutzizu]

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

Kier Starmer, Rebecca Long Bailey, Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner in that Order.

If the Labour Party learned something from Yesterday, then Starmer. If the left go full-on Cultist then Long Bailey.

I'd say Starmer is a narrow favourite, but working against him is that he is a Man during a Time when most in Labour think a female leader is needed. Long-Bailey has no Charisma.