United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

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What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.

And it includes Whitstable, becoming a fashionable escape to the country for middle class Londoners.

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Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

The ship is lost with all hands.

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What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc a plurality of practicing Catholics in England today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish.

Though of course most Poles etc in the UK do not have British citizenship and so cannot vote in a GE. Assuming the BES study is of GE voters it is mostly going to be Catholics of Irish descent.

As for no religion, that's related to age so the non-religious were more Labour in 2017.

http://www.brin.ac.uk/religious-affiliation-and-party-choice-at-the-2017-general-election/

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Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party’s lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0

The Remain United poll did not prompt for candidates standing in the respondent's constituency unlike most polls are now doing.

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True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

Southport most definitely voted Remain.  

Also there is no Brexit Party in this constituency to siphon away Labour Leavers who won't vote Tory which seems to be happening in other northern seats.

As for the other constituency polls they're pretty much in line with the Yougov MRP.

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https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203468992217833474

Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.

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How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.

Both Survation and Deltapoll have done random digit dialling of both landline and mobile/cell phone. Probably paid some data company for a localised list of mobile numbers.

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I see people on Twitter are a bit mad about the City of London poll. I saw the YouGov MRP rated it as 'Likely Conservative' so I don't know what the fuss is all about.

If you look carefully you will see you have answered your own question.

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When does the latest Yougov MRP results come out?

10 pm GMT