United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Zaybay]

Both party leaders arent really doing well in this debate, but the gap between how well Corbyn is doing and how well Johnson is doing is rather wide.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.

Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Depends on if an increase in turnout disproportionately effects young voters or not. If it does, then most pollsters likely wont be able to see it and will severely overestimate the Tories(this was a problem in 2017).

[Zaybay]

The Survation Poll dropped-

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201294584992677889

Note: The time in the field is incorrect. It should be the 26th to the 30th instead of the 29th to the 30th.

[Zaybay]

An interesting update, to say the least, particularly in Scotland.

Much of the information we've been getting from the area seemed to be pointing towards Scotland kicking all but one of its Labour MPs out. The model, however, paints a different story. Instead it looks like Labour may be able to hold onto all of their seats, even Midlothian.

Meanwhile the Tories, who were predicted to see rather minimal losses, already start off with seats that look guaranteed to fall to the SNP(Stirling) and even more tossup seats than Labour.

It does seem like tactical voting from Unionists, though its interesting to see how strong its been going for Labour.

[Zaybay]

Wales is similar. Polls showed that Labour may have been in trouble in their marginals here, but instead the result is just two seats towards the Tories, seats that are practically tied.

It really seems that most of the movement will be in the North for this election.