United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 137856 times)
Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
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Posts: 160
Germany


« on: November 01, 2019, 08:48:51 AM »
« edited: November 01, 2019, 05:04:46 PM by Keep Calm and ... »
Quote from: Lord Halifax on October 31, 2019, 01:33:46 PM
Quote from: Filuwaśrdjan on October 31, 2019, 08:42:53 AM
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



Edit:
    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019
Logged
Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
Rookie
**
Posts: 160
Germany


« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2019, 05:01:32 PM »
Quote from: Lord Halifax on November 01, 2019, 03:54:53 PM
Quote from: Keep Calm and ... on November 01, 2019, 08:48:51 AM
Quote from: Lord Halifax on October 31, 2019, 01:33:46 PM
Quote from: Filuwaśrdjan on October 31, 2019, 08:42:53 AM
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



The tweet's gone. What did it say?

    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019
Logged
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