United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Roblox]

The time limits were hilariously strict. Like, they couldn't finish a single sentence before being told to stop lmao.

[Roblox]

Wait, the media is actually ragging on Corbyn for….Mispronouncing a pedophiles name? What the ? Like, are there any actual British voters that would actually think "how dare that socialist bastard Corbyn disrespect the good name of….The guy who ran an international pedo ring…"

[Roblox]

The labour manifesto didn't change much, and I suspect the Tory one won't either. They already seem to have most of the leave vote and are close to maxed out, and I doubt theres anything that will cause people to abandon them like the dementia tax last time.

I guess labour will have to hope Boris Johnson unlocks his closet and lets Rees-Mogg out or something

[Roblox]

If labour suffers a massive defeat next week Corbyn should step down, but at the same time I wonder if any labour leader will be able to overcome this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-british-media-labour-tories-bias-press-polls-a9229161.html

[Roblox]

Pretty much.

Jonathan pie does an infinitely better job of holding the Tories to account than the mainstream UK media ever will. You really do hate to see it.

[Roblox]

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.

Though IIRC there was a split on what that "shock" meant - some Tories were genuinely predicting 400+ seats just minutes before the polls closed......

Really? Looks like there was some real kool-aid drinking on the Tory side. I only loosely followed the 2017 election, but I remember getting the impression that the polls were tightening but not enough to prevent conservative gains. Then the exit poll came out and early results came in, and I found them pretty thrilling lol, before my family took me to the mosque for two hours.

Speaking of 2017, how is Amber Rudd's seat looking? I know it was incredibly tight last time, and she's not standing in this election.

[Roblox]

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

[Roblox]

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

Maybe Blair has a different take on this, but it doesn't seem like a 2005-specific issue. FPP from the 1990s until 2015 gave Labour a big advantage. In 2015 that changed all of a sudden, I think due to the collapse of the LibDems and the SNP surge, and now FPP makes it harder for Labour to win than for the Tories to win.

Ah, this does make sense. Labour won about 40% of the seats with 29% of the vote in 2010, but won roughly the same number of seats when their vote share shot up to 40% in 2017. I think a lot of this has to do with not having a firewall (or "friewall", as the forums best poster likes to say) in Scotland, as you said.

[Roblox]

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...

Honestly surprised there haven't been many U.S comparisons in this thread yet (if that was what you were referring to?).

There seems to be one political trend happening across most of the U.S, Canada, and Europe.