United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

So, lets engage in a little though experiment that I ran last night. Lets take the 2017 election results (a 'normal' party breakdown) and the 2019 elections results (a 'brexit' focused breakdown) by consistency into a spreadsheet. On one  side we will have the Tories, UKIP, and Brexit - this will be called the Leave block. On the  other side we will have Labour, Lib-Dems, SNP, Greens, PC, and CHUK - this will be referred to as the  opposition. Add up each of their vote shares in each constituency for each election. Ignore NI because there are no 2019 numbers for that and it's elections are weird. Lets be sure to apply some weight to the opposition numbers, say a multiplier of .85 on their result in each seat to account for the naturally inefficient vote splitting between SNP/Lab/Remain forces. Now, lets weight each result (2017 and 2019) by 50% and add them together to see what the seat breakdown is.

We get a total Leave Block seat count of around 345-350. This thought experiment does not predict seat outcomes, but I think it is a good indicator of a overall total. Boris has been chasing the metaphorical dragon of the leave-labour seats and even if he gets just a bit it will be more than enough to counter losses in Scotland, London, the London bedroom communities, and various urban regions throughout the country.

[Oryxslayer]

This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

On each occasion (2008 and 2012) he actually performed a bit less well than polls predicted.

(and his personal popularity was greater, at the very least he was less toxic to non-Tories than now)

I'm not sure if under/overpreforming actually matters here. If you are a member of one party, and you are able to convince the stronghold of another party (less so during the period in question, but still applicable) to vote you in, you have already succeeded. You kinda confirmed my point there, Boris is great at crafting personas to appeal to whatever demographic he needs to win, be it more 'liberal' Londoners or Brexit-voting northerners. He's good at making you think he's appealing and on your side if you are the target, even though deep down he is still the same old rotting Boris Johnson.

[Oryxslayer]

Only tabled Amendments selected today for a commons vote concern the election date, no 16/17, no EU nationals, no future vote system changes, no mass postal ballots.

[Oryxslayer]

All October polls conducted before the vote tonight.



Scotland.

[Oryxslayer]

Amendment vote:

Ayes: 295
Nos: 315

GE will be on December 12.

Scottish harmonization of registration dates (recognizing the banking holiday) is unanimous.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.

[Oryxslayer]

If you look at everything that has happened in the UK since 2010, this has been the most surreal decade in the UK since the war.

Why wouldn't it end with PM Jeremy Corbyn 

Because Jo Swinson getting the keys to number 10 would be more surreal, if that's the criteria

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1189312756635389952

[Oryxslayer]

He resigned from the whip to vote for the deal and the expectation was that this is what he'd do - he remained close with the Lib Dems and the deal was basically "let us know when you want to come back".

I mean the Lib-Dems these days are going to be winning seats based on them being the party with full ownership of the Hard Remain column. Breaking the party line on this most crucial issue, frequently, and then returning to said party even though your views are against their number one selling point is awkward.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AlexSelbyB/status/1189316997294804992

I think this not paywalled poll tracker needed to be pinned to the thread, since it makes the geographic and demographic breakdowns (and their change) in each poll nice and visible, in addition to the fluctuation in the topline.

[Oryxslayer]

Even if the LibDems collapse over the course of the campaign, the distribution of their vote could be much less uniform than is usually the case, confounding our expectations and resulting in an outcome that none of us anticipate. In the event that the LibDems actually receive over 20% of the vote, I'd expect that result to be very distinct from past elections where LibDems received a similar vote share. Thus, this election is kind of a "black box" for long-time followers of British politics - you can punch the vote shares for each party into a seat calculator and the seat count could be wildly off!

I don't want to overempashize this because the present government is extremely unpopular, granting the possibility that the LibDems could very well appeal to their traditional electorate, which is far from being uniformly "eurosceptic" anyways, but even the possibility of a strategically-distributed LibDem electorate emerging strikes me as being very consequential

Yes, the proper take until the campaign seriously kick into high gear is that this election will be a black box. You mention the nature of the vote splits, but that is only one part of the equation. Looking at the tracker I posted, the tories are even with labour in the north, which mind you includes Labour strongholds like Manchester, Leeds, and Liverpool, while the Tories are only outpacing the opposition by 20 points in their usually (30ish pts) lock-step south. It's very possible that there are  far less damaging vote splits  between the LDs and Lab, because  they appeal as parties to two different sides of the electorate. Or the Tories will waltz down the middle. We don't know. The only thing that can be said for certain in my eyes is that many seats will be changing hands in many directions, and a good deal of those seats may be ones that come as a shock to prognosticators used to the old party strongholds.

For example, the first constituencies to usually announce, the Sunderlands, shouldn't be anything but safe labour under normal circumstances. But this election is a black box, and a community that returned some of the strongest results for Leave in 2016 and the Brexit Party in 2019 can't be ignored as potential targets depending on polling data. We don't know, the only thing the black box is willing to tell us is that near every seat could be competitive this cycle, and the calculators are worse then useless.  The only people who have any sort of grasp on the data right now are sitting in party war rooms right now, we just have to wait for things to kick into high gear.

[Oryxslayer]

What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The only thing with any guarantee of occurring in such a scenario would be more gridlock. The opposition could form a govt, but realistically it would be just like the present opposition - glued together solely by opposition to Tories. According to news pieces, nobody wants the status quo to return to Westminster.

The other likely thing that can't be ignored is that no matter what happens after this election, the Tories are going to be far more  in tune with Brexit. Boris's purges, various retirements and new  nominations, and their expectation to gain Brexit-voting seats  and lose remain voting ones all point to a Conservative party more united around the PM and Brexit as an issue. No more  backbench revolts and '5th columnists' for them.  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1189529254717018114

Further proof that UKIP are a zombie party. Similarly, the Sinners had November leadership challenge that now would coincide with the campaign period, so it may get shelved.  

[Oryxslayer]

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.

[Oryxslayer]

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.

Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.

Loughborough has voted for the winning party nationally at every election since February 1974. We'll see if it keeps that streak.

Thats what I meant by History. If we get a old fashioned election,a brexit election, or something in between, Loughborough still will likely be a marginal.

[Oryxslayer]

Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).

https://twitter.com/bathnesld/status/1189648562080112640

The only way JRM loses his seat is if the 600 reappointment goes into effect (it merges the two bath seats), or a different reappointment carves the city in two and has bath north/south rather than inner/outer. There are a good number of LDs in JRMs seat, but they will always be outgunned by the Tories without reinforcements from the city.

[Oryxslayer]

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

[Oryxslayer]

If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

Frankly, I think any govt should ammend the act when it comes back up for renewal. The last few months have shown that any govt that has sigifcantly lost it's majority and expired it's term has to be given the rights of burial and can't just be allowed to sit there and do nothing. The opposition shouldn't be able to Ted Cruz the whole thing if polling isn't great for them at that moment. Hell, I can imagine the situation could easily be reversed, where the govt controls more than enough to avoid the 2/3s rule, not every opposition wants to go to an election preventing a straight VONC, the govt doesn't want to go to the polls do to bad numbers, but said govt can't get enough votes to do anything in the commons.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.

I'd also add Dominic Raab to your list of potential big name Tory losers. His constituency, Esher & Walton, voted heavily for remain, the Lib Dems did really well in the local elections in May, and their candidate has managed to convince the central party to make E&W a target seat. It's more of a long shot than Uxbridge or IDS's seat, but if the Tories are having a bad night then it could be the evening's Portillo moment (assuming Johnson doesn't lose as well).

E&W definitely needs to be on the list. That entire slice of London from the city & Westminster to already LD Twickenham should be going Orange, and E&W is just a greater extension of the slice. Especially since all their Tory rebel flips are fleeing here to stand on the LD ticket. In fact, it reminds me a lot of the wealthy mansion strips in Houston and Dallas that now are represented by Dems.  I mean yeah, Raab has a large majority, but how the Lib Dems work is they either get ziltch or a reasonable percentage depending on if they are seriously targeting the seat. Their voter base is more white collar, more educated, and older then the electorate, so on average your LD voter is going to be more in tune with electoral information. If the LDs lack serious opportunity in a seat, their voters scatter to the big two depending on personal views. It's why they regularly underperform FPTP polls.

Now while many names on the list I could see losing their seats even on good night's for the party, Boris requires the Tories to have a known loss incoming. In part this is because he sits on a healthy leave base in addition to the Tory base, aplifying the headwinds. The main problem though will be inflexible remainers: this is London and this is Boris, so you know there will be a bunch of radicals who share the stage with him like Buckethead did with May. LDs will also want a good showing here to stick it to the Man, as it were.

[Oryxslayer]

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

Not surprising. I ran a simple regional swing calculation yesterday, using some of the numbers from the Economst's poll tracker, which includes a tracker for geographic regions (actually somewhat accurate on account of volume). However, I applied weights for Brexit results. That entire part of the northwest was blue, except for the LD seat of course. And this is with a weighted swing calculation, something that is by nature, inaccurate. LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

[Oryxslayer]

LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

No they won't. If they end up polling anything like where they currently are in the national polls, they will see their percentages soar in pretty much every constituency that they do not presently hold (and will do so in most of those as well).

I suspect their vote is going to correlate very well with their targets, as usual, but outside of that it's going to be mainly going up in remain and urban areas. Swinson is unambiguously campaigning as the remain candidate, everything else is a secondary clause you would use to withhold your vote from the LDs if you are a remainer - say tuition fees. So why would anyone who supports brexit cast a ballot for remain? Lets go back to the yougov polling posted on the last page - LD's are under 5% with leavers!

[Oryxslayer]

The polls with low labour levels have had a stupidly high Green vote (at 5-7%) and a high Lib Dem vote.

 US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

I don’t think it’s that easy...

Well, one has to hope that if you are exerting the effort to get a representative poll with a respectable sample from a small population, you are also willing to exert the effort so that your data can stand scrutiny. That's arguably why the nyt had their polls run live rather than be conducted all in-house and secret.

[Oryxslayer]

The Labour position on Brexit can best be summarized as confusion. This could be a problem if the election becomes a single-issue focused campaign, and they are forced to take a side that will either anger London or the North.

In other news, Farage right now is not going to stand for a Westminster seat in December. I guess he sees the trendlines and recognizes that brexit won't be winning any seats, even with his star power? Who knows, especially in the context of last weeks debate on the party standing candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunck of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.

it all sounds good whene put like that, but lets remember that this is FPTP, which loves to push things towards a 1v1 dichotomy based on clear partisan lines. Holding the middle ground is a smart thing to do both in the long term, and in the short term when considering labours voter divide and leadership vs backbench on the issue. Unless you are one of the 30-40% who have prior affiliations with labour, it's easy to look at a issue and gravitate towards the simplest most  polarizing message. Their 30-40% is certainly not immune to the 'all-or-nothing' messaging, it's just going to take a bit more effort to convert them. This was one of Clintons problem: rightly had a lot of details, but that made her programs harder to markets when compared to Trump's catchy one-liners. The Tories and the LDs are going to keep pestering Corbyn because Labour is weak on this issue that so many people  care about, 'which side are you on' statements may work wonders. It's labours job to navigate and have a appropriate counterargument for these upcoming attacks.

The the other thing to note is that there likely will be some sort of LD 'moment' because of Labour weakness on this issue. I would be seriously surprised if the LDs just had a slow decline in polls and didn't have a point where they recover upwards before falling back down. The tories also are going to be throwing tons of softballs towards Swinson because like Harper's Canadian Conservatives, they want to see the third party carve up the opposition. Now the moment may just be that, a moment, and it is not limited any specific period of the campaign. It's labour's job to be ready for the LD bump when it happens and be willing to adjust their platform, talking points, or campaign approach to push the LDs back down to their prior position.

[Oryxslayer]

Labours Lindsay Hoyle looks likely to be elected the next speaker in one of the upcoming ballots. I have a feeling the Tories and the LDs won't even think of contesting the seat, since the decision to hold a speaker vote before the poll was a decision made to temper uncertainty.