United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Former President tack50]

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

[Former President tack50]

One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On that note, is the London mayor race anything other than safe Labour? I definitely can't see the Tories winning it, and the even the Lib Dems seems like a stretch.

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of that, what Lib Dem seats are in danger of flipping? Because looking at their 2017 seats I am not sure how many are actually in danger. My extremely uninformed ratings would be something like this, italics for leave seats:

Bath: Safe LD
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: Safe LD
Carshalton and Wallington: Tossup
East Dunbartonshire: Safe LD
Eastbourne: Tossup
Edinburgh West: Safe LD
Kingston and Surbiton: Safe LD
North Norfolk: Lean Tory
Orkney and Shetland: Safe LD
Oxford West and Abingdon: Safe LD
Twickenham: Safe LD
Westmoreland and Lonsdale: Safe LD

So of their 12 seats in 2017 Lib Dems won 4 Leave seats. Of them the Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross seat should be safe, considering it's an SNP vs Lib Dem battle (or possibly a 3 way with the Tories?) I don't think Brexit will influence much that seat

As for the other 3, 2 of them are pure tossups with only North Norfolk being an unlikely hold. In a worst case scenario they would lose 3 of their seats, which considering they probably make more than 3 pickups elsewhere (NE Fife and Richmond Park are essencially Safe LD now) it would still be a positive for them, even if the result would still be a massive disappointment.

[Former President tack50]

In ten years, the United Kingdom will have split up. The NHS will be no longer.

I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

The NHS will indeed be no longer but the UK is only breaking up if Johnson wants it.

I could see him just going like Spain and denying referendums in Scotland. NI is harder because of the GFA though

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that in the UK, much like in Spain, the main left party (Labour in this case) doesn't need to win a majority in order to form government while the main right (the Tories) do.

I think we can safely rule out any sort of Tory-SNP collaboration, this is not the 1970s anymore. Same with Tories-Plaid. And after the coalition and Brexit, even Tory-Lib Dem looks iffy though I guess not impossible. Maybe after Brexit it becomes more likely?

In any case for the Tories it is 326 or bust. They can depend on 8 or so DUP seats, Sinn Fein not taking their seats and maybe cooperation with the Lib Dems, but even that means they need to win upwards of 300 seats barring a Lib Dem surge in the future (and the Lib Dems being cooperative of course).

Meanwhile Labour doesn't need to come close anywhere near to a majority (or even to getting more seats than the Tories!) to form government.

They can fairly safely rely on the 45 or so seats of the SNP and another 5 seats or so from SDLP/Plaid/Greens. So that's +50 to whatever Labour gets. And of course the Lib Dem seats are a tossup.

So for a Labour government, whoever is the Labour leader can easily get into 10 Downing Street with only about somewhere around 270 seats, while the Tories would need at least 300 seats or more.

A result like this probably leads to a Labour government for example. Not a particularly stable Labour government but a Labour government nontheless

Con 295
Lab 270
SNP 45
Lib Dem 15
Plaid 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 (9 DUP, 6 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Alliance)

For Labour: 321
For the Tories (generously giving them the Lib Dems, so if they go with Labour you can make the seat difference even larger!): 315

[Former President tack50]

What happened in 2001? Turnout went down by a lot and has never recovered since

[Former President tack50]

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?