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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 90570 times)
Arkansas Yankee
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« on: November 03, 2019, 05:55:14 am »

I get a kick out of the lefties posting here who say the 2019 British election will run along basically on the same track as 2017.. 

Will the 2020 US election run along the same track as 2016?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2019, 06:40:41 am »

I am reading some of the coverage of the 2017 election.  A Vox article:

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/9/15767522/uk-election-results-hung-parliament

states May did not agree to participate in leadership debates. The article states this empathized her arrogance.  I do not have an independent recollection of this.  Is it correct.

I would suggest that both Johnson and Corbyn change course and call for or agree to permit Swinson in every debate.  If they do not I think they may cause a backlash in her favor.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2019, 08:21:11 am »

Swinson says she will never let Corbyn become PM.  She knows she has to get the votes of Conservative Remainers. She knows this is the only possible way.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10272085/general-election-live-latest-news/

Will this not make Labour less willing to tactically vote for a Lib Dem?

Is also possible she might get caught making some deals with Labour?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2019, 09:38:21 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 09:46:33 am by Arkansas Yankee »

Yougov london poll

LAB    39
CON   29
LDEM 19
BXP      6
Green.  5

Electoral Calculus sets out the London vote in 2017 as follows:
            Labour got 54.5% and the Liberals 8.8 for a total of 63.3%
            Conservatives got 33.1% and UKIP 1.3% for a      
It predicts the current vote at Labor 34.2%,
                                                    Conservatives 29.5                                        
                                                    Liberal Dems 21.2
                                                    Brexit 7.5%
                                                    UKIP  .3%
                                                    Green 5.5%
                                                    Other 1.8%

On this swing it finds the Conservatives gain 6 seats from Labour: Etham, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Kensington, and Dagenham and Rainhem

The Liberals gain Richmond Park from the Tories and Bermonbsey and Old Southwark from Labour

Swinson better not be caught trying to make any deals with Labour.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 10:21:10 am »

The Daily Mail touts a new You Gov poll showing that Brexit gained 4% to 11% after Farage said he would contest 600 seats.  The Tories were down to 38, Labour down 2 to 25% and the Lib Dems unchanged at 16. 

The Daily Mail endorsed the Tories in 2015 and 2017.  Do not know why they are encouraging Farage.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2019, 10:54:09 am »

In reading today’s Daily Mail I think I come up with the reason that Corbyn will not recover this year as in 2017.  It is the Anti-Semitism that has been propagated by several Labourites. I that is also the reason his satisfaction level is -60.

In today’s Mail there is article covering Tony Blair’s attack on Corbyn for allowing Labour to be tainted with anti-Semitism and not dealing with in a proper manner. He spoke before a Board of Deputies of British Jews.  They gave him a standing ovation.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7651683/Tony-Blair-says-anti-Semitism-absolutely-killing-Labour-Party.html

In another article the Mail covered the apology of the Labour candidate running against Boris Johnson in Uxbridge and Ruislip seat for deeply inappropriate anti-Semitic tweets.

It is an issue that keeps coming up.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2019, 11:32:33 am »

wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

perhaps you should consider your own anti-semitism before attacking others; let he who has not sinned etc

I knew someone would attack me like this.

I would suggest you talk to Tony Blair.  He is the one going around making speeches.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2019, 03:42:43 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2019, 03:52:23 pm by Arkansas Yankee »



Electoral Calculus
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Cambridgeshire%20South
Predicts the following for this seat.

2017
Votes   2017
Share                         Predicted 2019
Votes
CON   33,631   51.8%   42.5%
LAB   17,679   27.2%   16.2%
LIB   12,102   18.6%   29.6%
Green   1,512   2.3%   3.5%
Brexit   0   0.0%   6.8%
UKIP   0   0.0%   0.1%
OTH   0   0.0%   1.3%
CON Majority   15,952   24.6%   Pred Maj 12.9%

This seat voted 39% leave.  In 17 this not effect the votE.   We shall have to see.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2019, 04:10:31 pm »

Two questions for the Labour supporters: what is your reaction to Swinson’s declaration she will never make Corbyn PM.

We know she and the other remain parties will not make Boris PM.

Then assume a hung Parliament and that the hat the Tories have the most seats and there not enough DUP or Independents to makeBoris PM

Will the nation have to await a Labour leadership election to discover who will be PM.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2019, 11:29:44 am »

Good!  The Brexit stand down should take a lot of the pressure of Tories in the southeast and southwest.

Sorry folks there is not going to be a hung Parliament. 

The antisemitic charges will put a damper on any Corbyn recovery this time. 
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2019, 06:25:44 am »

According to Election Calculus Hertfordshire South West voted 46% Leave.

The Liberal Dem has decided on his own volition to withdraw.  The Liberal Dems are considering replacements.  The Green Party is not contesting the seat. It is also a seat covered by by the Brexit Party standown.
 
In 2017 Gauke as the Tory candidate won the seat with 57.9%. The other percentages were Labour 25.7%, Liberal Dem. 11.7%, Green 2.6%, UKIP 2.1%.

Without Gauke as an Independent candidate and without Liberal Dem, Green, or Brexit candidates Electoral Calculus predicts the following results  Conservative 61%, Labour 37.7%, UKIP .4%, Other .9%.

I guess Gauke figures he is a popular MP and that he can take enough of the Conservative and Labour vote to win.  With the Leave vote at 46% I do not see him pulling this off, even if the Labour candidate stood down.  I also do not see a Labour stand down materializing.

I think Gauke may have developed some delusions of grandeur.
 
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2019, 12:07:05 pm »

Forget the Tory gain in the Panelobase poll.  Note your magnificent Campaigner Corbyn gained nothing. 

Please note most Conservative Remainers are not going to vote Labour this election even tactically.

I guess you think large numbers Conservative Leavers who were going to vote Brexit in the Tory held seat will not vote.   Stop dreaming.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 07:17:22 am »

I know most of the British posters here are either true red Labour supporters, even with Corbyn as leader, or you may not like Corbyn but your political heart remains true red and you still hope for a Labour victory.

Even so, can you not admit Boris, as a seeming street fighting supporter of Brexit during the referendum vote, may be gaining the votes of a significant number of Labour Leavers because of his strong stand to complete Brexit now when it must be completed or become lost in a hung or Labour controlled Parliament? In 2017 these Labour supporters stuck with Corbyn due to the fact that a actual leave date was two years off, Corbyn seemed to be a Leaver, Corbyn’s negatives were not as clear, and they may not in the June 2017 been drawn to May, who had been a patrician Tory who had recently been a Remainer?

Is it not possible Boris is successfully making this election into a Brexit election?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2019, 07:43:19 pm »

I am not going to list all the Antisemitism charges against Labour.   There seems to be a new one at least every other day.  Here is a new one.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693489/amp/Labour-Election-candidate-ran-secret-Facebook-group-advises-party-Holocaust-deniers.html?__twitter_impression=true

I do not see how Labour recovers in this atmosphere.  The continuing charges are worse than any of the complaints against the Tories.   I am sure this is why Corbyn’s satisfaction ratings are so low.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2019, 02:19:15 am »

Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html



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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2019, 07:52:23 am »

Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html




I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.

Would he necessarily say this.  I do not think so.

2017 and 2019 are not duplicates.

I remember there was a god deal of anger that May had called an election. She actually had a small but seemingly working majority.  It seemed she called the election only to get a larger majority to ride out the next Four years. That started the election getting out of May’s control

She realized she could not just run on Brexit, when the required leave date was 2 years away.

She attempted to change the details of how the elderly could use the equity in there home to finance their care after retirement.  The change was actually beneficial for most middle and lower income people.  However she could never explain it.

Then she refused to debate Corbyn.

She began to look like a deer in the headlights of a car.  No politician ever wants to develop that appearance.

This year it became quite clear that an election was necessary to resolve all the Brexit question. I do not think the opposition parties distinguished themselves by proving this Parliament could not resolve the Brexit question.  Boris did distinguish himself by a new
Brexit deal.

Then we have the collapse  of Corbyn’s reputation.  We have Labour’s anti Semitic problems.
We have Corbyn refuse to set out a coherent Brexit policy.  It is assumed that he cannot obtain a majority government.  It seems he will have to allow another Independence referendum to get SNP support.  He will have to allow another Brexit referendum to get Liberal Democrat support.

Finally, we have Corbyn’s Marxist reputation.  It terrifies the business community and Remainder Tories.  Swinson has already promised not to make him PM.  

IT IS CLEAR THIS YEAR THAT CORBYN IS THE DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2019, 10:10:43 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2019, 10:34:15 pm by Arkansas Yankee »

The Observer is conducting riding surveys that are to be reported in the Guardian.  The first reported surveys cover the previously Tory seats in London that have become marginal due to Brexit.  They are Finchley and Golders Green (what a name!), Kensington, and Wimbledon.

Finchley
      Conservative 46% change from 2017 -1%
      Lib Dem 32% change +25%
      Labour 19% change -25
       Other 3
             Hypothetical races with only one opposition party viewed with chance of election
                     Conservative 53%
                     Labour 37%
                     Lib. Dem 7%
               OR
                     Conservative 44%
                     Lib. Dem  50%
                     Labour 5%

Kensington
           Conservative 36%   Change -6
            Lib. Dem 33%.  +25
            Labour 27% -16
            Other 4

                  Hypos
                      Conservative 51%
                      Labour 41%
                      Lib Dem 5%
             OR
                      Conservative 38%
                      Lib. Dem  56%
                      Labour 5%

Wimbledon
          Conservative 38%.   Change -6
           Lib. Dem 36%.   +21
           Labour 23%      -13
           Other 3
                 Hypos
                  Conservative 48%
                   Labour. 41%
                   Lib. Dem 10%
     OR
                   Consevative 38%
                    Lib. Dem.   56%
                    Labour       6%

To each their own view of the dilemmas created.

See https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge

      
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2019, 08:24:45 pm »

I do not think that Corbyn is antisemitic. He just refuses to deal with those that inhabit his party or speak at the same rallies.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2019, 08:32:00 pm »
« Edited: November 19, 2019, 08:37:40 pm by Arkansas Yankee »

With Tories in the low 40s in most polls and Labour in the high 20s or at 30 in most polls, I do not see them getting anywhere near as close as they did in 2017 without the collapse of the Lib Dem or some real tactical voting.  I do not yet see either really happening.

The Tories are benefitting from the collapse of the Brexit Party.  Farage is making a fool out of himself.  I am sad to see it.  He could be leading the swing to the Tories rather than causing it by becoming a fool.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2019, 05:54:13 am »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2019, 12:04:32 pm »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:14 am »

Interesting analysis of the campaign from Conservative Home:

   https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/johnsons-campaign-stops-suggest-cchq-is-not-betting-the-house-on-a-landslide-yet.html

It notes that unlike May, Johnson has weathered both his first debate and the launch of Labour’s Manifesto.  If he can weather the launch of his own, he might be set.”

It points out he has divided his time between with visits to the West Midlands were there are several Labour marginals and visits to the South West “to shore up Liberal Democrat facing marginals.”  Thus he seems to be “dividing his attention pretty evenly between defensive and offensive targets.”

It concludes the “key test of a commander is their ability to adapt on the fly.  With Labour failing their 2017 ignition and Liberal Dem campaign appearing to stall, the Conservative strategists might have to make a decision whether to adopt a more ambitious and aggressive posture.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: November 23, 2019, 07:48:06 am »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 08:02:13 am by Arkansas Yankee »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2019, 03:52:52 am »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2019, 04:28:18 am »

What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?
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