United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Lord Halifax]

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

[Lord Halifax]

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1189942220482367489

The tweet's gone. What did it say?

[Lord Halifax]

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunck of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.

Only if you assume the EU is willing to offer the UK yet another deal.

[Lord Halifax]

Tom Watson will continue as deputy leader during the campaign. Who do you think will replace him?

[Lord Halifax]

Chris Williamson has stated he will run as an Independent Socialist in Derby North, which should benefit the Tories.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192175698431090692?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Lord Halifax]

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off. So establishing the LibDems as a credible alternative for centre-right voters would presumably be quite risky. A post-boomer two party system with Labour and the LibDems as the main parties and the Tories stuck in 3rd place with 20-23% of the vote must be their ultimate nightmare scenario.

[Lord Halifax]

Now I know there’s a meme about how the Tories are going to win scores of ‘northern’ (which under this particular definition seems to be any Labour seat north of Oxford and west of Bristol)

[Lord Halifax]

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

[Lord Halifax]

worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.

Agree absolutely. If one looks at both their Rethoric and their Actions on things such as Counter-Terrorism/civil liberties, welfare claimants, "antisocials", drug users etc. they were anything but social liberals. I would perhaps coin the term "liberal authoritarians". "Liberal" only in the sense that anyone who didn't fit in their model liberal depoliticized society was treated very illiberaly.

They prefer communitarian.

[Lord Halifax]

There's risk in the first debate; viewers might not like any of them. I loathe both; I'm hoping they eat each other

Corbyn is too skinny to eat, more meat on Johnson.

[Lord Halifax]

In some areas, the manifesto is less radical than expected. It has dropped the fantasy target of hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2030, which would require a hugely expensive and near-impossible transformation of the economy. Also gone are proposals to bring private schools into the state sector, and a mooted idea to give private tenants a right to buy their home from their landlord.

Dissapointing.

[Lord Halifax]

Getting closer.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197949416101031939

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1198173067039645696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[Lord Halifax]

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1200112699021115392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Lord Halifax]

"Boris Johnson has been accused of pushing racial stereotypes over a newly-unearthed column written during his time as editor of the Spectator in which he said young people had “an almost Nigerian interest in money”."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/johnson-accused-of-racial-stereotyping-with-view-on-nigerians

Might cost the Tories that all-important Nigerian vote.

[Lord Halifax]

Wtf is Labour sending Richard Burgon to a tv-debate? Do they want to lose? If this was sports you'd suspect matchfixing.

[Lord Halifax]

All the polls are wrong. Just thought I'd let you guys know.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719501881188354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1204415016994164736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Lord Halifax]

Corbyn gaining on Johnson.

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1204465165812539393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[Lord Halifax]

"Boris Johnson hid in a fridge while being pursued by a TV reporter attempting to interview him on the eve of the general election."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-hides-fridge-general-election-piers-morgan-good-morning-britain-live-tv-a9241631.html

[Lord Halifax]

The Lib Dems could have made Corbyn PM and gotten a 2nd ref, now they get a Tory majority and even lose a seat. Utter failure

[Lord Halifax]

Question to British posters: Is it a reasonable assumption that Labour will have a better chance of regaining lost ground in the North than in the Midlands and South Yorkshire?

[Lord Halifax]

Sensationalist headline (Labour needed to gain 60 seats to win a majority and that had to include some ambitious targets), but interesting all the same.
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503645584666626?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...