United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Intell]

Solid 26% of antisemtitic jews there. That number will be much lower this election probably.

58% Conservative
11% Labour
27% Libdems

[Intell]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

[Intell]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

I also think SDP and Lib Dem got a high vote amongst jews in 83/87/92, surpassing even the Labour Party in preference in 83 and 87.

[Intell]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

According to this poll (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/) Jews planned to vote 69-22 Tory over Millibrand even though Millibrand was of Jewish origin (though secular).

The above poll said they voted 63-26 Tory over Corbyn in 2017. So, if both polls are accurate (and they almost certainly are not), Jews actually swung slightly towards Corbyn.

The corbyn one is based upon data, the 2015 one is a poll. I would presume jews voted more for millibrand than for corbyn.

[Intell]

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Not sure about last election, but in 2006 Jewish community went 54% Liberal vs. 25% Conservative, but by 2011 totally flipped around.  Pretty sure they've gone Conservative since as Thornhill where largest used to be a Liberal riding but is now one of the safest Tory ones.  Mind you Harper was very pro-Israel so unlike in UK it was less about anti-Semitism of progressive parties (Liberals in Canada are more pro-Israel than British Tories if you look at UN voting record), but under Harper Canada was one of the few countries aside US that stood firmly with Israel.

In US its true Jewish community tends to vote heavily Democrat although GOP swung from 21% in 2008 to 30% in 2012.  With Trump the fact most Jews in the US live in large metropolitan areas and are more likely to have a college degree makes him a tough sell.  Historically I think they leaned left as left had a stronger record on minority rights than right did.

In Canada aren't Orthodox Jews heavily tory, while non-orthodox jews are liberal leaning group, with secular jews being even more pro-liberal.

[Intell]

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.

Bailey/Rayer (Corbyn Left)
Thornberry/Starmer (Soft Left)
Phillips (Right), won't win

[Intell]

SDLP and Sinn Fein both stood down, leaving only the Alliance for non-unionists and Remainers to vote for.

The total SF+SDLP vote in North Down was 2.4% in 2017, so that didn't make a difference in the Alliance victory even if every single SF and SDLP voter swallowed their pride and voted for Stephen Farry (but it's doubtful that more than about half actually transferred, with the rest not voting).

The Greens standing aside was a lot more meaningful; they got 6.5% in 2017 and would have transferred much better to the Alliance as the two parties basically fish in the same pool of voters.

But mainly, the Alliance clearly sopped up the vast majority of voters who had supported Sylvia Hermon over the DUP in the past. Hermon's history in the seat, her past anti-DUP positioning as well as implicit endorsement of the Alliance definitely made it easier for the Alliance to claim a position as her spiritual successor. They may not have won it if the same had occurred in 2017 (before the DUP made themselves look even more like fools than usual over Brexit and the continued suspension of Stormont), but by 2019 the DUP was clearly suffering across Northern Ireland, so the Alliance had an opening. And North Down is a relatively wealthy, liberal place, to the extent such things exist in Northern Ireland--it's possibly the most pro-same-sex marriage constituency in NI, for example (though Belfast South might be more so)--so a natural place for strength for the Alliance that had merely been suppressed by the presence of Sylvia Hermon.

North Down is not uniformly wealthy or liberal at all. It was only 52.5% remain but yes I agree with your comment. It needs to be added that Sylvia Hermon in 2010 and 2015, won the constituencies working class areas (more so than middle class areas in 2010, while in 2017 in these unionist working class areas the DUP had massive swings, while Hermon remained more steady in the more middle class areas, and these were the areas that swung heavily to the alliance.

[Intell]

There were clear increases in tory vote, especially in cosnticuences there wasn't a Brexit party or where the Brexit party was weak.


Most leave labour marginals, Brexit party not a factor

Wallsall North

+4415

Stoke on Trent North

+2061

Dudley North

+5044

Great Grimsby

+3170

Mansfield

+7157

[Intell]

There were clear increases in tory vote, especially in cosnticuences there wasn't a Brexit party or where the Brexit party was weak.


Most leave labour marginals, Brexit party not a factor

Wallsall North

+4415

Stoke on Trent North

+2061

Dudley North

+5044

Great Grimsby

+3170

Mansfield

+7157

Seems to me like both things were going on. There were some pretty dramatic upticks in Tory vote totals in these types of seats, but also nationwide turnout fell for the first time since 2001 and turnout was generally lower in Leave areas than Remain ones.

Yes, both of these were definitely a factor. There is also times where we see turnout decline for a certain party and increasing for another. In these seats it could be the case (not necessarily) that the Brexit turnout increase, and the labour leave vote stayed home or voted for the tories/brexit and this allowed the tories to win throughout the 'red wall'.

[Intell]

There were clear increases in tory vote, especially in cosnticuences there wasn't a Brexit party or where the Brexit party was weak.


Most leave labour marginals, Brexit party not a factor

Wallsall North

+4415

Stoke on Trent North

+2061

Dudley North

+5044

Great Grimsby

+3170

Mansfield

+7157

Seems to me like both things were going on. There were some pretty dramatic upticks in Tory vote totals in these types of seats, but also nationwide turnout fell for the first time since 2001 and turnout was generally lower in Leave areas than Remain ones.

Yes, both of these were definitely a factor. There is also times where we see turnout decline for a certain party and increasing for another. In these seats it could be the case (not necessarily) that the Brexit turnout increase, and the labour leave vote stayed home or voted for the tories/brexit and this allowed the tories to win throughout the 'red wall'.

It will be interesting to see if there are any figures on turnout by each party.

YouGov published some numbers in 2017, which showed that most parties had about equal numbers of their 2015 voters not turning out with the exceptions of UKIP and the SNP:

30% SNP people didn't turn out, fyck me we were so close to having a labour government in 2017.

[Intell]

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

Libdems are right, the problem is the difference between LibDem and labour is not a cultural divide but an economic divide, and the study makes It appears, that tory remainers are almost as culturally conservative as labour leavers. As this study is based in 2017, it should be the case that a lot of the socially liberal tory retainers already switched to the tory party, so there won't be a lot for the liberal democrats to actually gain.

[Intell]

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

Libdems are right, the problem is the difference between LibDem and labour is not a cultural divide but an economic divide, and the study makes it appears, that tory remainers are almost as culturally conservative as labour leavers. As this study is based in 2017, it should be the case that a lot of the socially liberal tory retainers already switched to the tory party, so there won't be a lot for the liberal democrats to actually gain.

I'd also caution against basing such assumptions on a single study (or indeed multiple studies frankly). If Tory Remainers were really so socially conservative, the Lib Dems wouldn't have come within 3,000 votes of the Tories in f!cking Esher of all places in the middle of a nationwide landslide.

Definetly needs to be taken with caution, but still my presumption was that the lindens made their swings amongst socially liberal tories in 2019, and maybe their ceiling has been met, if the study is correct. I could also be completely wrong, as I did not expect how much Labour voters that voted for IRA loving Corbyn in 2017 didn't vote for him in 2019.

[Intell]

Looking at cumulative swings, here is a map showing the accumulated Tory-Labour swing from 1997 to 2019. Have only included England & Wales, given the rise of the SNP in Scotland.



Here's one illustrating the accumulated swing as it differs from the overall national swing over the same time (12.3%):

Any reason why Merseyside is the one area to swing towards Labour?  it seems Liverpool area has a viscereal hatred of Tories and votes more heavily Labour than anywhere else.

They don't read the sun, and the popular paper is the daily mirror.

[Intell]

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.

[Intell]

That's probably too US-centric an approach - race is far from irrelevant in UK politics, but it's generally a bit more complex than that. One factor that needs considering is that London has much lower rates of home ownership than the rest of the UK and this is an increasingly important dividing line (and almost all the remaining strongly Conservative bits of London have high rates of home ownership.)

BME voters are much more likely to vote labour even when taking into account class, so wouldn't it be the case that race does matter to an extent in the UK.

Also don't quote me on this, but from basic observation, that BME that voted leave in the UK were didn't swing to the conservatives as much as their white neighbours did.