United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Beezer]

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

[Beezer]

The Tories' polling numbers weren't that great when Johnson called the election, however, and while there has been a tightening of the polls, the Tory lead is still around 2-3 points larger than at the same point in 2017.

[Beezer]

It seems that, as I predicted, the election has polarised into a straight Labour-Tory fight with some modest intervention from the Liberals. The trajectory of the polls is actually pretty similar to 2017, bar the Lib Dems being stickier than last time round - it wasn’t until the final week of the campaign when the really scary polls (for a Tory) putting Labour and the Tories neck and neck started to come out, so I wouldn’t rule it out this time either, given that there’s still nine days for Johnson to screw up big time.

Looks to me like the final week was just a continuation of the previous trend, i.e. no tremendous Labour surge within the final couple of days. Moreover, as others have pointed out, the Tory lead at this point is slightly larger than what they had going into the final week two years ago.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

[Beezer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204521341774381056

If you're a Tory this could be seen as a blessing in disguise. Still a comfortable majority (larger than Cameron's in 2015) but close enough to drive home the point that people need to turn out and vote.