United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135778 times)
ilikeverin
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« Reply #1675 on: January 11, 2020, 01:51:18 PM »

2019 - 4.6% to Conservatives



East Sussex & Merseyside trended toward Labour each time, while Essex & Lincolnshire trended away.

Is there some sort of dialect thing that the map on the right links onto, at least in southern England? I feel like I've seen some dialect map where London, Cornwall, and points in between map onto one thing and Essex and the rest map onto something else. Just thinking linguistically. I feel like Al should know this Wink
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1676 on: January 14, 2020, 04:13:30 PM »

One more swing chart - this one compares the overall national swing figure with the swing in Labour-Tory marginals.

Once again, not a huge difference between this chart and the others, though the 2001 & 2015 figures are much further below the line here than on the others. For that matter, 2017 is much higher than on the others (the swing in Labour-held marginals was higher than in Tory ones, so fewer gains were made), while 1992 is a little lower (it was the opposite of 2017, with Labour getting bigger swings in Tory targets than in their own seats).

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1677 on: February 01, 2020, 04:56:19 PM »

Looking at cumulative swings, here's a map showing the last three elections (2015 through 2019):




If you just want to see the last two, post-referendum, elections, here are cumulative swings for those:

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1678 on: February 01, 2020, 05:05:08 PM »

So just to be clear, the first one is 2010-2019 swing and the other 2015-2019?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1679 on: February 01, 2020, 05:07:25 PM »

So just to be clear, the first one is 2010-2019 swing and the other 2015-2019?


Yes (that is, 2010 results compared with 2019, and 2015 compared with 2019).



For further comparison, here's a constituency-based (as opposed to the local authorities) map of the 2016 referendum results:

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1680 on: February 01, 2020, 05:30:50 PM »

Thanks! Fascinating maps.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1681 on: February 04, 2020, 11:33:37 PM »

Here's another cumulative swing map, combining the last four elections (that is, swing from 2005 notionals to 2019):

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1682 on: February 05, 2020, 04:36:18 AM »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?
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Intell
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« Reply #1683 on: February 05, 2020, 04:58:25 AM »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1684 on: February 05, 2020, 06:10:39 AM »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.

That Blair still made inroads in not that long ago though.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1685 on: February 05, 2020, 08:30:09 AM »

Not just the changed politics since then, but it was somewhat demographically different as well.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1686 on: February 05, 2020, 08:45:11 AM »

Worth noting that we actually did pretty well in the Medway towns in 2017, it's just that the Tories did extremely well. We did terribly in 2019, of course, so we're further behind than ever there now.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1687 on: February 05, 2020, 08:51:44 AM »

Worth noting that we actually did pretty well in the Medway towns in 2017, it's just that the Tories did extremely well. We did terribly in 2019, of course, so we're further behind than ever there now.

True of quite a few other places, of course.

Of course, the question of *why* we did much better in 2017 (both locally and nationally) is a question that should have been asked rather more than it has been. Certain people have a vested interest in that not being the case, though.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1688 on: February 05, 2020, 12:41:50 PM »

  In looking over the London vote going more and more toward Labour over the last few elections, how much of that is due to an ever growing non-white share of the electorate, and how much to the white vote in London also going more to Labour?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1689 on: February 05, 2020, 01:42:15 PM »

  In looking over the London vote going more and more toward Labour over the last few elections, how much of that is due to an ever growing non-white share of the electorate, and how much to the white vote in London also going more to Labour?

A lot of it is due to growing non-white, but also in last two elections age was main fault line rather than social class and London on average has more young people than other parts of UK.  Also even amongst whites, generally those living in mixed areas not just in UK but other countries too are more likely to lean left than those in overwhelmingly white areas.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1690 on: February 05, 2020, 05:11:20 PM »

That's probably too US-centric an approach - race is far from irrelevant in UK politics, but it's generally a bit more complex than that. One factor that needs considering is that London has much lower rates of home ownership than the rest of the UK and this is an increasingly important dividing line (and almost all the remaining strongly Conservative bits of London have high rates of home ownership.)
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Intell
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« Reply #1691 on: February 05, 2020, 08:37:33 PM »

That's probably too US-centric an approach - race is far from irrelevant in UK politics, but it's generally a bit more complex than that. One factor that needs considering is that London has much lower rates of home ownership than the rest of the UK and this is an increasingly important dividing line (and almost all the remaining strongly Conservative bits of London have high rates of home ownership.)

BME voters are much more likely to vote labour even when taking into account class, so wouldn't it be the case that race does matter to an extent in the UK.

Also don't quote me on this, but from basic observation, that BME that voted leave in the UK were didn't swing to the conservatives as much as their white neighbours did.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1692 on: February 06, 2020, 04:39:08 AM »

There are distinctions between different BAME groups - black Caribbean voters are very strongly Labour; black African voters a little less strong; South Asian Muslim voters usually strong for Labour (in general elections, at least, and in practice taking them as a group is often unhelpful); the Conservatives have recently become competitive amongst Hindus (although this is also quite correlated with social class); Sikhs are somewhere in the middle.

The extent to which our performance improved with these various demographics varied quite a lot in 2017, but in 2019 we seem to have fallen back with them fairly uniformly and at very similar rates to their white neighbours (sometimes, as in Leicester East, individual candidates seem to have made a difference, but in the Black Country is just seems like everybody hated us). So yes, race matters, but more in terms of the starting point than the trajectory of the change at the last election.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1693 on: February 06, 2020, 07:05:26 AM »

There are distinctions between different BAME groups - black Caribbean voters are very strongly Labour; black African voters a little less strong; South Asian Muslim voters usually strong for Labour (in general elections, at least, and in practice taking them as a group is often unhelpful); the Conservatives have recently become competitive amongst Hindus (although this is also quite correlated with social class); Sikhs are somewhere in the middle.

The extent to which our performance improved with these various demographics varied quite a lot in 2017, but in 2019 we seem to have fallen back with them fairly uniformly and at very similar rates to their white neighbours (sometimes, as in Leicester East, individual candidates seem to have made a difference, but in the Black Country is just seems like everybody hated us). So yes, race matters, but more in terms of the starting point than the trajectory of the change at the last election.

I would be genuinely interested in a proper analysis of why Labour bombed so utterly there this time.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1694 on: February 06, 2020, 08:22:20 AM »

The same factors as everywhere else, but intensified by a couple of local factors: Ian Austin's intervention really cut through in the end,* and there was a lot of outrage about the selections in the West Bromwich seats, particularly East. I also suspect that Labour were simply not prepared for any large scale loss of support from British Indian voters (white tribal Labour voters in the Black Country have always been volatile, of course, even if this was a uniquely terrible performance on that front) and were left completely clueless as to what to do when it became clear that it was happening.

*And maybe Gisela Stuart's did as well. Never a Black Country politician,  of course, but she has a high profile throughout the conurbation and was always well-liked.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1695 on: February 06, 2020, 08:40:01 AM »

Of course given that 'disgruntled retiring/former MP endorses other party' and 'row over brazenly rigged selection' are staples of every election*, in some respects you're left back where you started: clearly these things only mattered because a substantial slice of the normal Labour vote was feeling mutinous. But I think 'national factors; intensified' is about right in this instance.

*I.e. what happened at Bassetlaw was certainly... unusual... but elsewhere it was normal bad practice.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1696 on: February 06, 2020, 09:20:01 AM »

It appears that both Austin and John Woodcock have been nominated for peerages by the Tories after their services to them during the election campaign and indeed previously.

(though thinking about it, the latter's intervention doesn't seem to have had the same effect in Barrow - yes I know the Tories won and everything, but.....)
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« Reply #1697 on: February 06, 2020, 09:29:13 AM »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.

That Blair still made inroads in not that long ago though.

Blair's crossover appeal when he was actually running for office was in fact not, primarily, to uselectionatlas dot org slash FORUM user Blairite types.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1698 on: February 06, 2020, 10:21:23 AM »

Blair's crossover appeal when he was actually running for office was in fact not, primarily, to uselectionatlas dot org slash FORUM user Blairite types.

What people need to understand about Mr Tony is that he was a very attentive constituency MP and modeled his analysis of British society and how Labour could/should adapt to the ways in which it was changing based on his constituency and how it had changed* and was continuing to change. In other words, he was (and even now is despite his views swinging a mile to the right since), in practice, much more of a Marxist than Corbyn and co. Classless populism was never what New Labour went in for, even if it may have seemed that way if you were not part of the target audience.

*The last pit there (Fishburn) closed five years before he became an MP and that was only a drift mine. Large-scale employment in the coal industry ended there, as in most of the rest of Durham, in the late 1960s.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1699 on: February 06, 2020, 04:48:36 PM »

Looking at the 2005 notional results, there are eight constituencies that the Tories held then that they do not at present:

Lost in 2015
Enfield North (voted 50.8% to remain in 2016)
Ilford North (voted 52.5% to leave)
Wirral West (voted 55.3% to remain)

Lost in 2017
Canterbury (voted 54.7% to remain)
Enfield Southgate (voted 62.1% to remain)
Reading East (voted 61.8% to remain)

Lost in 2019
Putney (voted 73.2% to remain)
St. Albans (voted 62.6% to remain)

Breaking them down, there are four in London, three in the South East and one in the North West; seven voted to remain (four of those with more than 60%) and one to leave. Seven are now held by Labour, and one by the Liberals (St. Albans).


The other party to have had a dramatic rise in its vote from 2005 to the present is the SNP, which doesn't hold two ridings that it had fourteen years ago:

Banff & Buchan (voted 54.0% to leave)
Moray (voted 50.1% to remain)

Both were lost to the Tories in 2017 (after being won in 1987) and held two years later; Banff & Buchan was actually held with an increased majority, while Moray was nearly won back by the SNP. They were also the two most pro-leave constituencies in Scotland.
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