United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135645 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1625 on: December 19, 2019, 08:38:42 AM »

Obviously describing a constituency that Labour held by far less than it 'ought' to rather than one lost, but Jarvis's piece here is actually not bad at all. I mean there's a bit of a HE'S RUNNING vibe, but ignore that.

Interesting that he should highlight bad tempers and physical risk to activists, something that we know was an issue up and down the country this time. On this matter I have something optimistic to say. This was the case in the Coupon Election a hundred and one years ago, which was actually also fought in December. Even in South Wales, Labour activists were spat at in the street and beaten up, such was the mood at the time. Four years later many of the people who did the spitting and the beating were voting Labour, one year after that the party formed its first government.
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« Reply #1626 on: December 20, 2019, 08:14:59 AM »

Interesting article.

https://unherd.com/2019/12/not-all-remainers-are-liberals/?=frbottom

Basically shows when asked questions like whether gender equality has gone to far or gay equality has gone to far, Tory remainers are about as conservative Labour leavers or Tory leavers and on those  questions are actually somewhat more conservative than Labour leavers. 56% of Labour leavers say they have no confidence in the EU, 56% of Tory remainers say the same. Basically it seems Tory remainers are as culturally conservative and anti-EU as  Labour leavers, probably why Labour couldn't win them over in 2019 was because Labour became too socially liberal, to win over Tory remainers Labour will have to become less liberal on cultural questions.
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bigic
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« Reply #1627 on: December 20, 2019, 08:23:52 AM »

Also the Tory Remainers are the most economically right-wing demographics, so even if Labour shifted to the right on cultural issues, chances that Labour wins over a significant number of them are small.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1628 on: December 20, 2019, 08:25:11 AM »

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers
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Intell
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« Reply #1629 on: December 20, 2019, 08:34:57 AM »

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

Libdems are right, the problem is the difference between LibDem and labour is not a cultural divide but an economic divide, and the study makes It appears, that tory remainers are almost as culturally conservative as labour leavers. As this study is based in 2017, it should be the case that a lot of the socially liberal tory retainers already switched to the tory party, so there won't be a lot for the liberal democrats to actually gain.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1630 on: December 20, 2019, 08:39:23 AM »

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

Libdems are right, the problem is the difference between LibDem and labour is not a cultural divide but an economic divide, and the study makes It appears, that tory remainers are almost as culturally conservative as labour leavers. As this study is based in 2017, it should be the case that a lot of the socially liberal tory retainers already switched to the tory party, so there won't be a lot for the liberal democrats to actually gain.

I'd also caution against basing such assumptions on a single study (or indeed multiple studies frankly). If Tory Remainers were really so socially conservative, the Lib Dems wouldn't have come within 3,000 votes of the Tories in f!cking Esher of all places in the middle of a nationwide landslide.
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Intell
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« Reply #1631 on: December 20, 2019, 08:49:22 AM »

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

Libdems are right, the problem is the difference between LibDem and labour is not a cultural divide but an economic divide, and the study makes it appears, that tory remainers are almost as culturally conservative as labour leavers. As this study is based in 2017, it should be the case that a lot of the socially liberal tory retainers already switched to the tory party, so there won't be a lot for the liberal democrats to actually gain.

I'd also caution against basing such assumptions on a single study (or indeed multiple studies frankly). If Tory Remainers were really so socially conservative, the Lib Dems wouldn't have come within 3,000 votes of the Tories in f!cking Esher of all places in the middle of a nationwide landslide.

Definetly needs to be taken with caution, but still my presumption was that the lindens made their swings amongst socially liberal tories in 2019, and maybe their ceiling has been met, if the study is correct. I could also be completely wrong, as I did not expect how much Labour voters that voted for IRA loving Corbyn in 2017 didn't vote for him in 2019.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1632 on: December 20, 2019, 12:04:19 PM »

Ipsos-MORI's breakdowns have arrived. They are far from perfect, but they are generally considered to be more reliable than those produced by other polling firms.

Anyway, here's the link.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1633 on: December 20, 2019, 03:09:32 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2019, 03:34:03 PM by Clyde1998 »

Ipsos-MORI's breakdowns have arrived. They are far from perfect, but they are generally considered to be more reliable than those produced by other polling firms.

Anyway, here's the link.
These, thankfully, include turnout estimates. Only 62% of Labour leavers voted, as did 74% of Conservative remainers. Both Conservative leave and Labour remain groups had 82% turnout.

This supports the theory that many Labour leavers didn't actually bother voting rather than voting for the Conservatives/Brexit Party.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1634 on: December 20, 2019, 04:47:52 PM »

Ipsos-MORI's breakdowns have arrived. They are far from perfect, but they are generally considered to be more reliable than those produced by other polling firms.

Anyway, here's the link.

The renter vs. homeowner breakdown is notable; I suspect many homeowners weren't keen on Labour tax proposals as they often want to pass the house down - or in any rate sell the house and pass the proceeds down.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1635 on: December 20, 2019, 04:53:59 PM »

This supports the theory that many Labour leavers didn't actually bother voting rather than voting for the Conservatives/Brexit Party.

The turnout figures in many of the lost/newly marginal Labour seats makes that pretty obvious.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1636 on: December 21, 2019, 06:25:02 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2019, 12:00:42 AM by Lord Halifax »

Sensationalist headline (Labour needed to gain 60 seats to win a majority and that had to include some ambitious targets), but interesting all the same.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1637 on: December 22, 2019, 05:30:34 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2019, 05:34:23 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Worth remembering that Labour's targeting was also out in 2017, but in the opposite direction. Also that during this campaign, Tories even in the closing days pursued a mainly "defensive" strategy - spending most time and resources in their own marginals and the most vulnerable Labour targets.

Being wise after the event is always easy.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1638 on: December 22, 2019, 11:28:50 PM »

Sensationalist headline (Labour needed to gain 60 seats to win a majority and that had to include some ambitious targets), but interesting all the same.


At beginning of election this made sense as their goal like any party was to form government.  Where they messed up was failure to pivot at midpoint when it became clear they weren't going to form government.  A good party has both a defensive and offensive strategy and can pivot quickly as poll numbers changes.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1639 on: December 23, 2019, 06:03:33 AM »

Labour did achieve some limited movement in the polls, however, and possibly gambled a bit that they would be out like they were in 2017. As it turns out, there are some indicators of a late pro-Tory swing - if so, that couldn't really be dealt with effectively in the short time available (even were that course of action practically possible at all)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1640 on: December 23, 2019, 09:54:52 AM »

Labour did achieve some limited movement in the polls, however, and possibly gambled a bit that they would be out like they were in 2017. As it turns out, there are some indicators of a late pro-Tory swing - if so, that couldn't really be dealt with effectively in the short time available (even were that course of action practically possible at all)

There was some movement towards Labour but very gradual not a surge like 2017 and overall indicators on vote retention, regionals as well as leadership numbers all suggested they were going to do worse. 

As for late pro-Tory swing, I think the few polls showing Labour closing gap in final days probably caused same Labour leave supporters thinking of going Brexit Party to vote Tory as noticed Brexit Party was strongest in safe Labour seats, in marginals was quite weak.  Likewise looks like in London area, some Tory remainers thinking of going Liberal Democrat swung back to Tories.  Many Tory remainers and a lot in business community felt Brexit was bad but a Corbyn government even worse.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #1641 on: December 24, 2019, 06:16:39 AM »

From what I am seeing in other websites, the Corbynistas haven't learned anything at all. It's ninety percent blaming the media, as if it weren't going to be there next time and ten percent joking about how Tony Blair still hasn't been sent to the Hague, after his critical remarks. I fully expect another big Tory win in 2024, which is heartbreaking.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1642 on: December 24, 2019, 08:27:38 AM »

From what I am seeing in other websites, the Corbynistas haven't learned anything at all. It's ninety percent blaming the media, as if it weren't going to be there next time and ten percent joking about how Tony Blair still hasn't been sent to the Hague, after his critical remarks. I fully expect another big Tory win in 2024, which is heartbreaking.

There have been plenty of interesting and frank Labour left analyses of the defeat, if you care to look for them rather than just have your prejudices confirmed by zoomers on social media.

And one could be equally selectively unflattering about the reaction of confirmed Corbyn critics to the defeat, there's often precious little insight or honest analysis to be found there either.

("muh muh THREE ELECTIONS muh", though even that is less moronic than those actually calling for literally everybody who voted for Corbyn to be expelled en masse - which yes I have actually seen)
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Blair
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« Reply #1643 on: December 24, 2019, 08:46:34 AM »

If only someone warned them! (as always they were fighting the last war)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

The thing about the targeting is that we knew at the start of the campaign that it was a largely  defensive one; with our route into government resting on holding seats in the Midlands & North, and winning 10-20 Tory marginals that we missed out on last time ( we won 1 of these; Putney) so that we could lead a minority government.

The seats being targeted were ridiculous; it's of course a long running problem that target seat lists are done to massage the egos of the Labour leaders; Gordon had one way too long because his team didn't want to tell him they were getting slaughtered, Ed's one was ridiculously long because they were high in 2013 about winning, we had a defensive one in 2017 because for the first 6 weeks our data pointed to a 2019 level defeat & no-one (including JCs own team) had a way of tracking the surge & swing that late in the campaign.

So this was a pretty hilariously of of touch strategy at the beginning; and by week 3-4 it was pretty clear that we weren't closing the gap (the TV Debates & Trump visit were seen as the big events that could change it)

Of course LOTO & parts of HQ believed that the polls were wrong; but on the ground this time the MPs who knew there patches were doing voter ID and knew what was happening, and they warned about this.

Of course seeing as the partys response was to send Ian Lavery & Richard Burgon around some seats I doubt if I'd have wanted much support!
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Farmlands
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« Reply #1644 on: December 24, 2019, 09:18:19 AM »

From what I am seeing in other websites, the Corbynistas haven't learned anything at all. It's ninety percent blaming the media, as if it weren't going to be there next time and ten percent joking about how Tony Blair still hasn't been sent to the Hague, after his critical remarks. I fully expect another big Tory win in 2024, which is heartbreaking.

There have been plenty of interesting and frank Labour left analyses of the defeat, if you care to look for them rather than just have your prejudices confirmed by zoomers on social media.

And one could be equally selectively unflattering about the reaction of confirmed Corbyn critics to the defeat, there's often precious little insight or honest analysis to be found there either.

("muh muh THREE ELECTIONS muh", though even that is less moronic than those actually calling for literally everybody who voted for Corbyn to be expelled en masse - which yes I have actually seen)

Maybe you are right about the degree of leftism there not being proportional to Labour as a whole, but the newer generations, of which those people are part of, still compose most of the party's membership. This is why I'm concluding what I did. I'm not prejucided against the Left at all, by the way, I'd fully support Sanders' candidacy.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1645 on: December 27, 2019, 11:07:28 PM »
« Edited: December 27, 2019, 11:21:39 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here's a link to my (finally completed!) spreadsheet of UK elections from 1885 to two weeks ago; obviously when the full Electoral Commission report comes out the latest figures may change a bit, but this should do for now. Have also thrown in the 2014 & 2016 referenda for good measure. Data come from F. W. S. Craig's books (1885 to 1992), Electoral Commission reports (2001 to the present) and Walker's Ireland books (1885 to 1918).

A couple of items:

Firstly, the italicized constituencies (1885 to 1970) indicate constituencies that roughly fall within modern-day Greater London;

Secondly, the Irish figures from 1885 to 1918 are taken from Walker's Parliamentary Election Results in Ireland, 1801-1922, which lack tables totalling the vote by party at each election; therefore, there may be some errors in my figures as I wasn't able to cross-check my totals with anything definite (though I've gone over them several times, I can't promise there are no mistakes!).

Thirdly, there are some hidden columns indicating swing figures for elections from 1959 to the present (doing it pre-1945 didn't make as much sense due to parties not always contesting a seat two elections in a row - Labour, then Liberal, then both, then just one again, and so forth, for instance).

Fourthly, the vote percentages from 1885 to 1945 have been adjusted for dual-member constituencies rather than simply being taken from the raw totals (this is why the 1945 percentages, for instance, are 48.0%-39.6% as opposed to 47.7%-39.7%).


https://drive.google.com/open?id=1dYxOhd1afsae8DNN-tSN77Uuk6ZUKi0O
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afleitch
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« Reply #1646 on: December 28, 2019, 07:24:45 AM »

Since 1951 only two Labour leaders have won general elections; Wilson, by appealing to moderates and Tories then governing a little left of that and Blair by appealing to moderates and Tories and governing not so much to the left.

The last transformative government, in terms of leaving a legacy and an imprint on society was Blairs. Only four PM's can claim that legacy since the war; Attlee, Wilson, Thatcher and Blair. Three of them Labour.

The solution is simple and obvious. But it's now two defeats away now.

(FWIW I don't include Macmillan as it was continuity 'war coalition/Butskellist.' Cameron is possible, constitutionally, but too early to tell.)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1647 on: December 28, 2019, 07:40:17 AM »

Any presumption that the Tories have already won in 2024 has to be suspect - not least because once they have "got Brexit done" just weeks from now, what are they actually going to *do* for the next four years? Whatever it is, there is a chance much of it won't be as popular........
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DaWN
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« Reply #1648 on: December 28, 2019, 07:43:44 AM »

Then of course there's at least a chance Brexit is a disaster and the economy goes under and suddenly the size of the majority becomes rather academic.

(Which is why Labour's choice of leader needs to be right one and why Long-Bailey being inevitable is so depressing, but that's another discussion)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1649 on: December 28, 2019, 09:16:10 AM »

Then of course there's at least a chance Brexit is a disaster and the economy goes under and suddenly the size of the majority becomes rather academic.

(Which is why Labour's choice of leader needs to be right one and why Long-Bailey being inevitable is so depressing, but that's another discussion)

Take it from me, she's not.

(Which isn't a prediction she *won't* win btw, but it certainly isn't set in stone)
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