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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 86029 times)
Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1550 on: December 13, 2019, 01:59:27 am »

The Lib Dems could have made Corbyn PM and gotten a 2nd ref, now they get a Tory majority and even lose a seat. Utter failure
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1551 on: December 13, 2019, 02:13:35 am »
« Edited: December 13, 2019, 12:11:32 pm by DistingFlyer »

Nobody can complain about the polls this time around - they led pretty much exactly to the right spots:



It's also one of those very rare occasions when a party extended its lead over the campaign instead of shrinking it.

(There are two constituencies still left to report - will update this chart if necessary when they come in.)


Here's an updated swing-vs.-gains chart; somewhat to my surprise, given all the talk about anti-Tory tactical voting, the Conservatives overperformed relative to the swing to a greater degree than they ever have - it's not 1992-level, but it's close:

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1552 on: December 13, 2019, 02:40:34 am »

At least the back on forth is likely to end now. Hopefully Labor can recover under different leadership, though it's probabl hard to ever get to an own majority since their former bastion Scottland is now hardly winnable.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1553 on: December 13, 2019, 02:45:10 am »

In ten years, the United Kingdom will have split up. The NHS will be no longer.

I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

The NHS will indeed be no longer but the UK is only breaking up if Johnson wants it.

I could see him just going like Spain and denying referendums in Scotland. NI is harder because of the GFA though
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1554 on: December 13, 2019, 02:59:43 am »

Yeah, so when Irish reunification happens, is there any chance of Liverpool joining too?

England doesn't deserve them
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JGibson
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« Reply #1555 on: December 13, 2019, 03:10:45 am »
« Edited: December 13, 2019, 07:14:04 pm by Kutasoff Hedzoff »

Arsenal RB Héctor Bellerín is on-point: #F**kBoris!

https://twitter.com/HectorBellerin/status/1205054790843207680
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Dereich
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« Reply #1556 on: December 13, 2019, 07:40:13 am »

The Lib Dems could have made Corbyn PM and gotten a 2nd ref, now they get a Tory majority and even lose a seat. Utter failure

No, they couldn't have. The former Tories were never going to support Corbyn, even as a temporary measure. Giving Corbyn unconditional support would have tied themselves to him with nothing to show for it and this election showed that they were right to think of Corbyn as a toxic vote-killer.
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Kyng
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« Reply #1557 on: December 13, 2019, 08:31:17 am »

Yeah... this wasn't the result I wanted. Still, the fact that I dislike both major-party leaders made it easier for me to accept: with Corbyn gone, I feel that I at least got something out of this election (ideally, we'd rather have got rid of Boris, but I'll accept getting rid of Corbyn as a consolation prize).

I was really hoping for the Lib Dems to do well - so, this was brutal for me from that point of view. Not only due to Jo Swinson's agonisingly narrow loss - but also the "close but no cigar" moments in Esher and Walton, Wimbledon, Winchester, South Cambridgeshire, Sheffield Hallam, Cheltenham... having so many near misses was just crushing.

Pretty much the only positive I can take is that, in and around London, there were quite a lot of Tory/Remain constituencies with large swings to the Lib Dems, where they often leap-frogged Labour into second place. I'd argue that this puts them in a stronger position that they were in after 2017: it gives them a fair number of credible new targets for the next election, whenever that may be.

(Of course, they'll need an inspiring leader to take advantage of that - and their disappointing seat count from this year has left them with a very limited pool of potential choices...)
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1558 on: December 13, 2019, 08:36:28 am »

Yeah, so when Irish reunification happens, is there any chance of Liverpool joining too?

England doesn't deserve them

This reminds me of some hilarious idea that Brexiteers flung around in 2016, suggesting that the answer to the Irish border is get the Republic of Ireland to re-join the UK. The Brexiteers' idea of "enticing" the Irish to re-join was essentially 1) move the UK capital to Liverpool, and 2) build an undersea tunnel from Dublin to Liverpool to ensure "connectivity" or something.

Imagine thinking the Irish would get in on that deal.
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Estrella
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« Reply #1559 on: December 13, 2019, 08:40:33 am »

Yeah, so when Irish reunification happens, is there any chance of Liverpool joining too?

England doesn't deserve them

This reminds me of some hilarious idea that Brexiteers flung around in 2016, suggesting that the answer to the Irish border is get the Republic of Ireland to re-join the UK. The Brexiteers' idea of "enticing" the Irish to re-join was essentially 1) move the UK capital to Liverpool, and 2) build an undersea tunnel from Dublin to Liverpool to ensure "connectivity" or something.

Imagine thinking the Irish would get in on that deal.

Maybe someplace more neutral would've helped convince them? Liverpool is still technically England after all. What about Isle of Man? Wink
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BernieBros hate women. Hate democrats. Hate USA
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« Reply #1560 on: December 13, 2019, 08:45:38 am »

Failure for the lib democrats and labour and left to not shoot themselves for a tory to win.
1) Chingford - Tory 23,481 Lab 22219 LD 2744
2) Chipping Barnet - Tory 25745, Lab 24533, LD 5932
3) Cities of London & Westminster - Tory 17049 Lab 13096 11624
4) Wimbledon - Tory 20373 LD 19745 Lab 12543
5) Carshalton & Wallington - Tory 20822 LD 20193 LAB 6081
6) Esher & Walton - Tory 31132 LD 28389 LAB 2838
7) Hendon - Tory 26878 LAB 22648 LD 4628
Cool Finchley - Tory 24162 LD 17600 LAB 13347
9) Kensington - Tory 16768 lab 16618 ld 9312

outside london
1) Cheadle - Tory 25694 LD 23358 LAB 6851
2) Hazel Grove - Tory 21592 LD 17169 LAB 5508
3) Heywood/Middleton - Tory 20453 lab 19790, ld 2073
4) Bury South - Tory 22034 lab 21632 ld 2315
5) Bury North - Tory 21660 lab 21555 ld 1584
6) Leigh - Tory 21266 lab 19301 lab 2252
7) Warrington South - Tory 28187 Lab 26177 ld 5732
Cool Dewsbury - Tory 26179 Lab 24618 ld 2406
9) High Peak - Tory 24844 Lab 24254 ld 2750
10) Keighley - Tory 25298 Lab 23080 ld 2573
11) Blyth Valley - Tory 17440 Lab 16728 LD 2151
12) Durham Northwest - Tory 19990 lab 18846 ld 2831
13) Stoke Central - Tory 14557 Lab 13887 ld 1116
14) Birmingham Northfield - Tory 19957 lab 18317 ld 1961
15) Truro - Tory 27237 Lab 22676 ld 7150
16) Rushcliffe - tory 28745 lab 21122 ld 9600
17) Winchester tory 28430 ld 27445 lab 2723
18) reading west tory 24393 lab 20276 ld 4460
19) bridgend - tory 18193 lab 17036 ld 2368
20) delyn - tory 16756 lab 15891 ld 2346
21) aberconwy - tory 14687 lab 12653 pc 2704 ld 1821
22) ynys mon - tory 12959 lab 10991 pc 10418
23) dumfries - tory 22678 snp 20873 lab 4745
24) dumfriesshire - tory 22611 snp 18830 lab 4172
25) berwickshire tory 25747 snp 20599 ld 4287 lab 2513
26) moray tory 22112 snp 21599 lab 2432 ld 2269
27) aberdeenshire tory 22752 snp 21909 ld 6253 lab 2431

As Jo Swinson says "we've thrown most people under the bus and it's out own fault"














 






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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1561 on: December 13, 2019, 08:53:51 am »

There's no evidence all those Liberal Democrats would vote Labour, or vice versa.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #1562 on: December 13, 2019, 08:56:10 am »

It would be hilarious if:


1. Scotland votes for and is granted independence.

2. Scotland joins the EU.

3. Ireland is renunited.

4. England and Wales rejoin the EU 20 years later, but the UK remains split-up.


(in that order)
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Annatar
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« Reply #1563 on: December 13, 2019, 08:59:53 am »

It's good to see a lot of voters in the Midlands and North-East finally recognised Labour doesn't like them and voted Conservative, it will be easier for a lot of these voters to vote conservative in the future as they have now voted conservative at least once, hopefully as time goes on, more and more working class voters realise Labour doesn't want them and the party closer to their views is the Conservative party.
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Kyng
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« Reply #1564 on: December 13, 2019, 09:03:17 am »

There's no evidence all those Liberal Democrats would vote Labour, or vice versa.

Indeed - especially in the case of the Scottish seats (where anti-SNP tactical voting is just as prevalent, if not more so, than anti-Tory tactical voting). If anything, Labour and the Lib Dems pulling out of those seats might actually increase the Tory majorities.

As far as I'm concerned, the only really awful results are the three-way marginals in London (in particular, Kensington going Tory made me want to punch my screen since that's where Grenfell Tower is located...), but in those constituencies where either Labour or the Lib Dems are way behind, I suspect a lot of that vote is either protest-voters or low-information voters (neither of whom can be relied on to back the other left/Remain party).  
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1565 on: December 13, 2019, 09:07:42 am »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #1566 on: December 13, 2019, 09:11:43 am »

Arsenal RB Héctor Bellerín is on-point: #F**kBoris!



Terrible both on and off the field.
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Horus
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« Reply #1567 on: December 13, 2019, 09:17:56 am »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.
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Intell
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« Reply #1568 on: December 13, 2019, 09:19:59 am »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.


Bailey/Rayer (Corbyn Left)
Thornberry/Starmer (Soft Left)
Phillips (Right), won't win
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1569 on: December 13, 2019, 09:26:05 am »
« Edited: December 13, 2019, 09:30:50 am by urutzizu »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

Kier Starmer, Rebecca Long Bailey, Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner in that Order.

If the Labour Party learned something from Yesterday, then Starmer. If the left go full-on Cultist then Long Bailey.

I'd say Starmer is a narrow favourite, but working against him is that he is a Man during a Time when most in Labour think a female leader is needed. Long-Bailey has no Charisma.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #1570 on: December 13, 2019, 10:28:28 am »

And it begins:

Nicola Sturgeon to publish independence referendum blueprint
SNP leader says election result in Scotland gives her a clear and undeniable mandate
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vileplume
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« Reply #1571 on: December 13, 2019, 10:35:42 am »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.


Bailey/Rayer (Corbyn Left)
Thornberry/Starmer (Soft Left)
Phillips (Right), won't win

I presume she's only running to boost her media profile further? Phillips would hate being leader anyway (I agree she stands 0% chance of winning) as it would mean she'd lose her slot on all the political panel shows. She really is much more at home being a TV rent-a-gob as opposed to actually having any position of responsibility.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1572 on: December 13, 2019, 10:53:19 am »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.


Bailey/Rayer (Corbyn Left)
Thornberry/Starmer (Soft Left)
Phillips (Right), won't win

I presume she's only running to boost her media profile further? Phillips would hate being leader anyway (I agree she stands 0% chance of winning) as it would mean she'd lose her slot on all the political panel shows. She really is much more at home being a TV rent-a-gob as opposed to actually having any position of responsibility.

Ah yes a women who ran a refuge for abused women & is one of parliaments leading voices against domestic violence clearly has no desire for any responsibility...

Besides you're thick if you think becoming leader means you lose time on TV.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1573 on: December 13, 2019, 11:03:19 am »

So what are the main agenda items of this newly expanded Conservative majority, that history will remember them for?  

Managed democracy.

And no, unfortunately I'm not even joking.
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El Betico
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« Reply #1574 on: December 13, 2019, 11:44:01 am »

Johnson in White Working Class area....just...wow( I don't want to be unpolitically correct)...
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