United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:08:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 55 56 57 58 59 [60] 61 62 63 64 65 ... 69
Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135818 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,308
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1475 on: December 11, 2019, 02:15:21 PM »

Can someone explain why Johnson is specifically avoiding interviews with high profile journos like Neil and Piers Morgan and why exactly its so important for him not to be "exposed"? Is he that much of a ticking time bomb or is there some sort of grudge between him and the fourth estate (that he's a part of himself)?

I'm trying to understand why it generates so much media attention in itself.

Because when he does do interviews, he tends to make gaffes or repeat himself a lot.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1476 on: December 11, 2019, 02:21:14 PM »



Last minute poll shows no overall change.
Logged
Queen Isuelt
MissScarlett
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 556


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1477 on: December 11, 2019, 02:27:00 PM »

How would it go down in the uk if Boris lost Uxbridge and was put in the House of Lords to remain prime minister.

Nothing the uk public can do about it but it would stink no?
Logged
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 587
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1478 on: December 11, 2019, 02:45:41 PM »

How would it go down in the uk if Boris lost Uxbridge and was put in the House of Lords to remain prime minister.

Nothing the uk public can do about it but it would stink no?

Not sure where those allegations about Boris going to the Lords came from, but would be much easier and more likely in my opinion to just have a Tory MP in a safe seat go to the Chiltern Hundreds (i.e. Resign) and let Boris get in to the Commons through a By-election. Alex Douglas-Hume is the only recent precedent for this, and that was the course of action.  

In other news: Last BMG Poll: 41(-)/32(-)/14(-)/4(-)/3(-1)
Logged
Gary J
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 286
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1479 on: December 11, 2019, 02:47:38 PM »

So apparently if Boris Johnson loses Uxbridge tomorrow night, the Tories will give him a peerage and put him in the unelected House of Lords (similar to senate) so he carry on being Prime Minister.

Iain Duncan Smith, Dominic Raab and Theresa De Villere giving same assurances but timing different.

On Twitter (melt down) the BBCs chief political correspondent Laura Kuenssberg has broken election laws and been referred to the police by the electoral commission for disclosing postal vote counts in live tv. (Big no-no). Guardian reporting they believe ‘bridges burnt for her to continue’ and she has a job lined up in Tory CCHQ/Boris government.

If I expressed myself confusingly, in my previous post about what will happen if Johnson loses his seat, I apologise. The plan would not be to give Johnson a peerage. It is for someone else to be made a peer, to free up a House of Commons seat to elect Johnson in a by-election.

It has generally been accepted, since Lord Curzon failed to be appointed Prime Minister in 1923, that only in the most exceptional circumstances would there be a Prime Minister in the House of Lords. Lord Halifax was considered as a possible replacement for Chamberlain in 1940, but as Churchill did not support him the idea was dropped. Lord Home, whose case I mentioned in the previous post, was only available to become Prime Minister because the ability to renounce hereditary peerages had recently been introduced.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1480 on: December 11, 2019, 02:53:49 PM »

Some fear that the Tories will destroy the UK.......
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1481 on: December 11, 2019, 03:14:37 PM »

Some fear that the Tories will destroy the UK.......

Just in terms of the union, Boris' deal means Northern Ireland is economically separate from the rest of the UK, with trade between the two being subject to custom checks and in some cases higher tariffs, leading to higher prices in Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK and damaging the region's economy. The fear of the unionists there is that this could lead to a political separation beginning to form and support increasing for Northern Ireland leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland (which polls show is already starting to happen). There is also the risk that Boris' hard Brexit increases support for Scottish independence (currently polls show independence is just a few points behind in the polls). Scotland voted by 62% to remain in the EU, and one of the key points in the previous independence referendum was that independence would mean losing EU membership, while now independence means potentially gaining EU membership. That said, the complications of Brexit could  make a hugely more complicated political and economic separation look unattractive to Scots. A good result for the SNP would encourage them to pursue independence, though Boris has taken a hard line on independence, while a good result for the Tories could mean an underperformance for the SNP and would discourage them from pursuing independence in the near future. Still, Scottish independence's prospects, either in the short-term or long-term, of winning an eventual referendum would be higher if the Tories win the election than if a Labour government is formed, especially if a second referendum results in the UK remaining in the EU. I think the UK probably remains intact in the near future, but the risks to the union, especially in the long-term, will be higher if the Tories are re-elected.
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1482 on: December 11, 2019, 03:39:17 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2019, 03:24:58 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here's a graph showing the parties' poll numbers over the campaign (will update if/when more come in before tomorrow night):




As for my own prediction:

Cons - 342 MPs (43%)
Lab - 226 MPs (34%)
Lib Dem - 17 MPs (12%)
Nat - 46 MPs (3%)
GP - 1 MP (3%)

Overall majority: 34
Overall swing: 3.0% to Cons

Margin of error: +/- 15 MPs (equivalent to roughly +/- 2% of swing)
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1483 on: December 11, 2019, 04:11:37 PM »

Aha, very funny Comres, very funny.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1484 on: December 11, 2019, 04:12:17 PM »

This is fun...

Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,308
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1485 on: December 11, 2019, 04:23:29 PM »

I'm going to try and keep away from anything election related apart from actually voting tomorrow until the exit poll; I'll see you then.

It's certainly going to be an interesting night.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1486 on: December 11, 2019, 04:36:23 PM »

SHOCK POLL!!!!!!!!!
Logged
Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,596
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1487 on: December 11, 2019, 04:50:22 PM »

Haven't posted here all campaign...over the past few days I'm actually starting to believe a hung parliament is possible. With so many close seats and undecided voters it feels like the result is on a knife edge between comfortable Tory majority and some sort of minority government. Pointless to make a prediction.

Labour definitely have a bit of momentum going into polling day though.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1488 on: December 11, 2019, 04:51:09 PM »

Haven't posted here all campaign...over the past few days I'm actually starting to believe a hung parliament is possible. With so many close seats and undecided voters it feels like the result is on a knife edge between comfortable Tory majority and some sort of minority government. Pointless to make a prediction.

Labour definitely have a bit of momentum going into polling day though.

If it is a hung parliament, this might be one of the few cases where 'late swing' is a valid explanation for the polling error.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,612


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1489 on: December 11, 2019, 04:56:59 PM »

I'm hoping for some anti-Conservative tactical voting like there just was in Canada.
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1490 on: December 11, 2019, 05:04:24 PM »

I'm hoping for some anti-Conservative tactical voting like there just was in Canada.

There's a fair degree of that already, and has been for some time - one reason why a Tory lead of 10% will probably not get them a majority greater than 50 - and why an actual lead of 8% in 1992 got them a majority of just 21 - while a Labour lead of 9% in 2001 produced a majority of 167.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1491 on: December 11, 2019, 05:04:56 PM »



Another shockingly stable poll.



One that's less than stable.
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1492 on: December 11, 2019, 05:10:00 PM »

Lots of herding now, except Savanta Com Res.....
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1493 on: December 11, 2019, 05:28:05 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 05:32:36 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here's how the polls moved in some past elections:

1970


Feb 1974


Oct 1974


1979


1983


1987


1992


1997



2017


The darker line disregards the polls indicating the Labour rise stopping in the final week, while the brighter line takes all polls into account. Maybe the former were overcorrecting for 2015.


In general, a party's lead shrinks over the course of a campaign - sometimes just a little, sometimes quite a bit (1997 & 2017), but rarely does the party trailing actually finish up ahead (1970 & 1992). Unless there's a big surprise tomorrow, this election looks to follow the general model: the party leading at the start of the campaign still leads at the end, but by a somewhat smaller margin.

I was struck by Prof. King's remark in 1992, commenting on the surprise Tory win, that parties trailing usually fell further behind during a campaign; not sure on what he based that, but it doesn't seem accurate (even in pre-1970 elections: the Labour lead in 1964 & 1966 ended up being a little less than at the campaign's start, while the Tory lead in 1959 also shrank a tiny bit).
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1494 on: December 11, 2019, 05:29:22 PM »

Less than 24 Hours remain until BBC opens the exit poll envelope.
Logged
jaymichaud
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,356
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.10, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1495 on: December 11, 2019, 05:39:54 PM »

It's gonna be a slaughter for Labor... isn't it
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1496 on: December 11, 2019, 06:03:52 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 06:10:13 PM by DistingFlyer »

One more chart - this one looks at swings vs. seats that changed hands. (Will update it once tomorrow's results are complete.)

A note of explanation: the x-axis denotes the swing at each election, while the y-axis denotes the number of seats that changed hands between the two big parties as a percentage of marginals - for instance, 1979 saw a net change of 52 seats between Labour & Conservative out of 58 Labour marginals, while 1997 saw a net change of 144 seats between Conservative & Labour out of 68 Conservative marginals. Additionally, the color of each dot denotes the direction of the swing at the election.



One can observe the ability of Labour to defend vulnerable seats when there's a swing against them (1979 & 2001), and their ability to make extra gains when there's a swing toward them (1964, 1974, 1992, 1997 & 2017). Occasionally the Tories will make more gains than the swing would suggest (2010) or lose fewer (1974). Tactical voting obviously has something to do with this, as does what was called a 'tactical vote unwind' in 2005 & 2010.

Given that there's a certain degree of anti-Tory tactical voting already happening (look at 2017), I'm not sure how far from the line tomorrow's result will stray - perhaps on the order of 1987 or 2005, but I'd be very surprised if it was like 1979 or 1992.
Logged
Queen Isuelt
MissScarlett
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 556


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1497 on: December 11, 2019, 06:04:37 PM »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0

Full YouGov MRP poll by each race. Very accurate in 2017. Got laughed at for predicting Canterbury would flip (a seat that voted Tory for over 100 years) seeing a 20% swing.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,612


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1498 on: December 11, 2019, 06:41:40 PM »

It's crazy how large the sample is for that YouGov poll at 105k, but at some point sampling error becomes larger than the statistical error.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1499 on: December 11, 2019, 07:08:20 PM »

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 55 56 57 58 59 [60] 61 62 63 64 65 ... 69  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 12 queries.