United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135643 times)
Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1400 on: December 10, 2019, 04:54:04 PM »

How come most seats in the UK are projected in the early morning?

They're not projected. They're actually counted on the night, by volunteers who often work as cashiers in banks.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1401 on: December 10, 2019, 05:02:19 PM »



If you're a Tory this could be seen as a blessing in disguise. Still a comfortable majority (larger than Cameron's in 2015) but close enough to drive home the point that people need to turn out and vote.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1402 on: December 10, 2019, 05:04:37 PM »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1403 on: December 10, 2019, 05:06:46 PM »

I'm already noting there is a lot of flux from the previous MRP, for example Esher and Walton (rightly) slid all the way to tossup from likely tory, meanwhile Sedgefeild went from toss-Lab to toss-Con.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1404 on: December 10, 2019, 05:09:10 PM »

Sedgefield was of course Tony Blair's seat.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1405 on: December 10, 2019, 05:09:50 PM »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
And Bolsover as a flip while High Peak is an easy hold.   Hmm
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1406 on: December 10, 2019, 05:11:33 PM »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1407 on: December 10, 2019, 05:16:34 PM »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.
Dennis the Menace will not be so easily despatched.
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Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party
DANNT
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« Reply #1408 on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:26 PM »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.
I don't think  so since many of us have seen it coming, whereas the portillo moment was a huge surprise.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1409 on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:54 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 05:26:06 PM by DistingFlyer »

Obviously these predictions may not come about - a number of long-held Labour constituencies didn't go down last time when it was thought they might - but if they do, we may be witnessing the political patterns in Britain get a little closer to what we've seen in Canada for a few decades now, with well-off urban & suburban seats seldom going Tory but many blue-collar ones being strong for them. That's slowly been coming to pass over the last few decades anyway, with 1997 being a big step in that direction, but it still hasn't shifted to the same degree that we've seen in Canada since the 1960s (and even more so since the 1990s).

(For instance, if Canadian voters still went the same way as British ones we'd probably have seen the Tories win Rosedale but lose Fort Mac.)
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Boobs
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« Reply #1410 on: December 10, 2019, 05:22:51 PM »

East Devon is a Tory-Ind tie at 47%-47% Wink
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cp
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« Reply #1411 on: December 10, 2019, 05:27:52 PM »

Esher and Walton has a 46/44 Tory lead. That's a difference of about 500 votes.

I leafletted 150 houses today. 😊
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #1412 on: December 10, 2019, 05:37:13 PM »

When was the last time any of that solid red block of seats in northeast England along the coast ever went for the tories?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1413 on: December 10, 2019, 05:40:11 PM »



YouGov MRP in a more classic format. Lots of seats on knife edge, so I will be getting the Safe/Likely/Lean map out soon.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1414 on: December 10, 2019, 05:41:24 PM »

When was the last time any of that solid red block of seats in northeast England along the coast ever went for the tories?

1931, but it took a nationwide vote of 61%-31% (and a seat count of 521-52) to do it. The old 'North' region (Cumberland, Durham & Northumberland) went Tory 54%-39% and 28 seats to 3.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1415 on: December 10, 2019, 06:26:22 PM »

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...
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Roblox
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« Reply #1416 on: December 10, 2019, 06:31:39 PM »

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...

Honestly surprised there haven't been many U.S comparisons in this thread yet (if that was what you were referring to?).

There seems to be one political trend happening across most of the U.S, Canada, and Europe.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1417 on: December 10, 2019, 06:35:46 PM »

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...

Honestly surprised there haven't been many U.S comparisons in this thread yet (if that was what you were referring to?).

There seems to be one political trend happening across most of the U.S, Canada, and Europe.

I was referring to Brexit, but I guess one could start drawing suburban-style trends. The place Labour surged in 2017 was overwhelmingly in and around London, and if the positions of the parties were reversed, we would be talking about some red shires rather than blue bolsover.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1418 on: December 10, 2019, 06:45:04 PM »

An interesting update, to say the least, particularly in Scotland.

Much of the information we've been getting from the area seemed to be pointing towards Scotland kicking all but one of its Labour MPs out. The model, however, paints a different story. Instead it looks like Labour may be able to hold onto all of their seats, even Midlothian.

Meanwhile the Tories, who were predicted to see rather minimal losses, already start off with seats that look guaranteed to fall to the SNP(Stirling) and even more tossup seats than Labour.

It does seem like tactical voting from Unionists, though its interesting to see how strong its been going for Labour.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1419 on: December 10, 2019, 06:51:24 PM »

Wales is similar. Polls showed that Labour may have been in trouble in their marginals here, but instead the result is just two seats towards the Tories, seats that are practically tied.

It really seems that most of the movement will be in the North for this election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1420 on: December 10, 2019, 06:57:30 PM »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
And Bolsover as a flip while High Peak is an easy hold.   Hmm

High Peak is very touristy area and generally that demographic is more friendly to progressive parties while Bolsover is fairly rural and was a former coal mining area but voted 70% leave.  Dennis Skinner may still hang on, but if he does, it will be due to his personal popularity.  Being 87, if he dies in the next five years or quits, there is a good chance the Tories will pick it up in a by-election unless they become wildly unpopular.  Still if you look at all the close ones, each party will win some they are slightly behind and each will lose a few slightly ahead and you will have a few upsets probably due to local reasons that the MRP won't pick up.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1421 on: December 10, 2019, 07:05:23 PM »

High Peak is mostly old mill towns on the fringe of the Manchester conurbation. Very few people live in the touristy parts.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1422 on: December 10, 2019, 07:12:07 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 07:27:45 PM by Oryxslayer »



Sometimes you just don't know how a regions is going to vote. All six light red/blue pictured here are tossups tilting Lab/Con, with Ynys having PC in the  mix of course. Seems likely that all (well, maybe not Ynys) behave similarly and swing or not as a unit.

Whats weird is that we have two YouGov polls, this and the welsh barometer, saying contradictory things. Wonder which will win. Both The barometer and the MRP were very accurate last time so...

EDIT: See below from Jai. Two welsh YouGov polls from similar times, two different results.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1423 on: December 10, 2019, 07:15:20 PM »

Yougov MRP regional vote shares

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Cassius
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« Reply #1424 on: December 10, 2019, 07:36:32 PM »

What exactly are they basing this South Cambridgeshire insanity on? Allen’s not running there and the Tories won it by 25 points in 2017 (with the Lib Dems in third).
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