|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 03, 2020, 12:47:08 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Coolface's deceased great-granduncle)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 51 52 53 54 55 [56] 57 58 59 60 61 ... 70 Print
Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85871 times)
Fubart Solman
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,501
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1375 on: December 09, 2019, 04:06:54 pm »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

I wish that British polls had undecided numbers.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,088
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1376 on: December 09, 2019, 04:53:59 pm »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

Remember that postal votes are being sent in at the moment. Also, any major change might not be picked up in time; some people will decide in the booth.

As for me, I'm in a safe Conservative seat and since I find a lot of stuff about Labour objectionable at present, I intend to vote Lib Dem to bolster their national numbers.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,985


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1377 on: December 09, 2019, 05:01:20 pm »
« Edited: December 09, 2019, 05:04:28 pm by Oryxslayer »







(Last?) Three Deltapoll constituency polls are re-polls of the West London seats. On their first pass, it appeared closer to the higher end up London expectations. This time, we have entered the more average projection. Now, the overwhelming amount of voters here are still open to tactical voting and would still comfortably elect Lib-Dems if it was only a Lib-Dem and a Tory with a realistic shot at winning. However, it no longer is. Throwing Putney and Wimbledon onto the pile for good measure we get a collection of seats now where a majority of voters will likely not want Conservatives, but the two groups who are willing to kick out the conservatives have different goals. Now, this is one of the best regions demographically for tactical voting to occur, so perhaps these  polls will actually influence the final outcome. The picture  however now is far more murky than how it appeared six weeks ago.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,088
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1378 on: December 09, 2019, 05:14:57 pm »

Finchley & Golders Green isn't West London, it's North. It's noteworthy as it's a Tory marginal that was Labour from 1997 until 2010. Secondly, the previous seat used to have Margaret Thatcher sit for it.

Thirdly and most importantly here, that general area has the highest Jewish population in the UK; on the times I've been through the south of it on London Overground, there's been at least one Haredi Jew on the train.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,428
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1379 on: December 09, 2019, 05:17:12 pm »

How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,088
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1380 on: December 09, 2019, 05:24:26 pm »

YouGov asks for your postcode when you register for their online panel. They need it for the cheques for one thing.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,666
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1381 on: December 09, 2019, 06:25:33 pm »

More constituency polls, I see. I wouldn't trust those.
Logged
rc18
Rookie
**
Posts: 149
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1382 on: December 09, 2019, 06:28:01 pm »

How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.

Both Survation and Deltapoll have done random digit dialling of both landline and mobile/cell phone. Probably paid some data company for a localised list of mobile numbers.
Logged
LabourJersey
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,087
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1383 on: December 09, 2019, 08:45:23 pm »

So now that Boris had ignored the terrible treatment of a sick children, he's trying his best to change the subject in possibly the most cringeworthy way imaginable:



The amount of Tory Sh**posting this election cycle is truly absurd.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,357
Finland
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1384 on: December 09, 2019, 09:11:29 pm »

And for some reason the last 30 seconds are just silence.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,179
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1385 on: December 09, 2019, 09:19:50 pm »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

They already tried one - inventing an "assault" on one of Matt Hancock's SPADs by a "Labour activist" for which they were supposedly arrested. Only problem - it was false from start to finish and *proved* to be so by video coverage - but not before Laura K and Bobby P (inter alia) had been suckered by it.
Logged
jimrtex
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,461
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1386 on: December 09, 2019, 10:32:11 pm »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.

How are constituency polls conducted in Britain?

In 2018, I was polled by phone. Since it was a human pollster, I participated. Then she asked about who I was going to vote for in a nearby congressional district (and one in which I had lived - the district moved, not me). I explained I wasn't going to vote for any of the candidates since I couldn't. After a bit of discussion, it was agreed that I would be recorded as "refused to state", which sometimes gets lumped with dunno, not sure, and no opinion.

Or are their voter lists complete with phone numbers? And if phone, how do you get people to respond. My understanding that in the US, response rates are around 10% (lower if mobile phone). With that kind of response, you are going to be having extreme self-selection biases. If 12% of Tory voters respond, and 8% of Labour, you've got a useless poll.

Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,985


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1387 on: December 09, 2019, 10:37:57 pm »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.

How are constituency polls conducted in Britain?

In 2018, I was polled by phone. Since it was a human pollster, I participated. Then she asked about who I was going to vote for in a nearby congressional district (and one in which I had lived - the district moved, not me). I explained I wasn't going to vote for any of the candidates since I couldn't. After a bit of discussion, it was agreed that I would be recorded as "refused to state", which sometimes gets lumped with dunno, not sure, and no opinion.

Or are their voter lists complete with phone numbers? And if phone, how do you get people to respond. My understanding that in the US, response rates are around 10% (lower if mobile phone). With that kind of response, you are going to be having extreme self-selection biases. If 12% of Tory voters respond, and 8% of Labour, you've got a useless poll.



The first part was answered here:

How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.

Both Survation and Deltapoll have done random digit dialling of both landline and mobile/cell phone. Probably paid some data company for a localised list of mobile numbers.

And the second part is hopefully solved by weighting, though not for party ID. For example, If you get poor response rates from African Americans in your US poll, those AA's get weighted heavier in regards to the rest of the sample so that your poll reflects the electorate.
Logged
cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1388 on: December 10, 2019, 03:58:07 am »



Unclear which ComRes method is being used here, i.e. whether it's the same they used for Gina Miller's poll last week or their regular methodology. Either way, 7 point gap pulls the overall averages of the race closer to a draw.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,625
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1389 on: December 10, 2019, 04:28:24 am »




(Last?) Three Deltapoll constituency polls are re-polls of the West London seats. On their first pass, it appeared closer to the higher end up London expectations. This time, we have entered the more average projection. Now, the overwhelming amount of voters here are still open to tactical voting and would still comfortably elect Lib-Dems if it was only a Lib-Dem and a Tory with a realistic shot at winning. However, it no longer is. Throwing Putney and Wimbledon onto the pile for good measure we get a collection of seats now where a majority of voters will likely not want Conservatives, but the two groups who are willing to kick out the conservatives have different goals. Now, this is one of the best regions demographically for tactical voting to occur, so perhaps these  polls will actually influence the final outcome. The picture  however now is far more murky than how it appeared six weeks ago.

I see people on Twitter are a bit mad about the City of London poll. I saw the YouGov MRP rated it as 'Likely Conservative' so I don't know what the fuss is all about.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,179
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1390 on: December 10, 2019, 05:45:48 am »

It would likely be closer without a certain person's vanity candidacy?
Logged
rc18
Rookie
**
Posts: 149
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1391 on: December 10, 2019, 05:48:10 am »


I see people on Twitter are a bit mad about the City of London poll. I saw the YouGov MRP rated it as 'Likely Conservative' so I don't know what the fuss is all about.

If you look carefully you will see you have answered your own question.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,113
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1392 on: December 10, 2019, 06:20:46 am »

I see people on Twitter are a bit mad about the City of London poll. I saw the YouGov MRP rated it as 'Likely Conservative' so I don't know what the fuss is all about.

Because only Labour are allowed to contest seats, duh.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Rookie
**
Posts: 222


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1393 on: December 10, 2019, 06:58:51 am »

It would likely be closer without a certain person's vanity candidacy?

Possibly closer, but not that close. Labour would definitely need to be ahead nationally to take Two Cities. It's Kensington where the Tories are really benefiting from it.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,088
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1394 on: December 10, 2019, 07:44:20 am »

So, Jon Ashworth...
Logged
Grand Inquisitor Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,549


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1395 on: December 10, 2019, 07:52:29 am »

Wonderful sense of humor there, just joking around by describing his leader as a unelectable security risk.

I have to say I'm amazed on how Labour just manages to screw up even when the Conservatives leave themselves virtually open for attack.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,150
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1396 on: December 10, 2019, 08:22:32 am »

When does the latest Yougov MRP results come out?
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,985


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1397 on: December 10, 2019, 08:25:23 am »

It would likely be closer without a certain person's vanity candidacy?

Possibly closer, but not that close. Labour would definitely need to be ahead nationally to take Two Cities. It's Kensington where the Tories are really benefiting from it.

Whoever sponsors these deltapolls is a remainer, so they actually ask tactical voting questions. Labour loses two cities in the hypothetical scenario where voters are told only Labour and the Tories had a chance at winning the seat. Meanwhile, the Lib-Dems win it but not overwhelmingly in their tactical voting question.
Logged
rc18
Rookie
**
Posts: 149
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1398 on: December 10, 2019, 08:25:51 am »

When does the latest Yougov MRP results come out?

10 pm GMT
Logged
cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1399 on: December 10, 2019, 08:36:51 am »



Oooh, equally pretty *and* useful map.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 51 52 53 54 55 [56] 57 58 59 60 61 ... 70 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines