United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135701 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1250 on: December 07, 2019, 11:00:32 AM »

Away from the 52-48 poll headline, Corbyn did quite well on most of the other questions.

It likely won't make much difference, but won't actually hurt. Whereas if he had bombed it would have done.

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1251 on: December 07, 2019, 11:13:26 AM »

Torygraph: Tony Blair and Sir John Major are throwing a lifeline to Marxist Jeremy Corbyn
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1252 on: December 07, 2019, 11:17:10 AM »

That's the Borisograph to you Wink
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1253 on: December 07, 2019, 11:24:16 AM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 11:36:23 AM by Oryxslayer »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1254 on: December 07, 2019, 11:51:40 AM »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

This poll, if I'm reading it correctly has changes on the last poll, but the last poll (2-3 Dec) was taken at the same time as this poll (2-5 Dec), which makes this poll, depending on when the bulk of the data was collected, as old as four other polls already released.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1255 on: December 07, 2019, 11:58:40 AM »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

I got a bad feeling about this.  Nightmares of 2017
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1256 on: December 07, 2019, 12:23:37 PM »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

I got a bad feeling about this.  Nightmares of 2017

I mean if BoJo is actually at 9%, we should expect outliers of 6% and 12% to show up. If they didn't, one would suspect herding is occurring similar to 2017. So there are two different stories here, dependent on the rest of the pack.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1257 on: December 07, 2019, 01:12:35 PM »

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

Quote
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party’s lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0
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rc18
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« Reply #1258 on: December 07, 2019, 01:25:17 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 01:42:27 PM by rc18 »

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

Quote
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party’s lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0

The Remain United poll did not prompt for candidates standing in the respondent's constituency unlike most polls are now doing.
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cp
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« Reply #1259 on: December 07, 2019, 01:26:51 PM »

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

Quote
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party’s lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0

Picking up on Oryx's point, that would seem to align with the idea of the Tories being 7ish points ahead and falling. For comparison's sake, at this point in the 2017 election polls showed a Tory lead between 1 and 12 points, and polls over the following week showed a similar distribution. This was also the point in 2017 when the second terrorist attack of the campaign (the one in London) happened, which I will point to as proof that there very much is still time for changes to happen one way or another.

With that said, I think we're close enough to the close of the campaign to be confident about one observation: this election isn't *precisely* like 2017, but it's unfolded more like 2017 than any other recent election.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1260 on: December 07, 2019, 01:38:38 PM »

Basically two polls with different methodologies by the same polling firm, in part (though not totally) conducted over the same period of time. A bit weird, but I suppose not unuseful.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1261 on: December 07, 2019, 02:00:31 PM »

Tory 15pt lead with Opinium.
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Matty
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« Reply #1262 on: December 07, 2019, 02:15:04 PM »


Absolute junk
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1263 on: December 07, 2019, 02:16:36 PM »


And just like that we get the outlier at the other end of the spectrum. Tongue

Seems clear were getting a good spread. At the minimum this means polls have to be systematically off in their methods for shock errors, rather than them getting good results and throwing them out to conform with the herd.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1264 on: December 07, 2019, 03:34:27 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 03:56:47 PM by Oryxslayer »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.



I currently consider this a three-way tossup, and similarly does YouGov. When presented with two way battles between Lib-Dems and Labour, the race remains marginal. Essentially, it's an unknown if non-Tory votes can or even want to consolidate here.



This once was a three way marginal, but it has slid off the triple  battlefield, prompting the question of where the Lib-Dem base would go. Turns out that answer was nowhere. Conservatives win in both a Blue-Red and a Blue-Orange hypothetical if only one had a realistic opportunity here. Numbers align with YouGov's projection.



I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Between this and Raab's seat the Lib-Dems look to be having goo night in in this Remain area. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat theoretically since Milton has been forced to stand as an indie. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #1265 on: December 07, 2019, 03:35:21 PM »

OK, let's not derail the election thread with OSR giving his usual hottake and then being explained what communism actually is.
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cp
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« Reply #1266 on: December 07, 2019, 03:46:20 PM »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.



I currently consider this a three-way tossup, and similarly does YouGov. When presented with two way battles between Lib-Dems and Labour, the race remains marginal. Essentially, it's an unknown if non-Tory votes can or even want to consolidate here.



This once was a three way marginal, but it has slid off the triple  battlefield, prompting the question of where the Lib-Dem base would go. Turns out that answer was nowhere. Conservatives with in both a Blue-Red and a Blue-Orange hypothetical if only one had a realistic opportunity here. Numbers align with YouGov's projection.



I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.

Worth noting these are all nearly a week old and date from when Labour was closer to 10 points down on average compared with 6-7 now. Putney could be a Labour lead now and Southport a tie.

Completely agree with you about Guildford and the Lib Dems, though. The rumours on the ground there are, if anything, even more encouraging than they've been in Esher & Walton.

On that subject, the Tories seem to have actually shown up to campaign for the first time in weeks. I spotted two or three new Tory lawn signs this evening, still outnumbered by Lib Dems, though - and this is in the *suuuuper* Tory part of the ward (Cobham). My partner went to an even in Walton today with Gina Miller and the actor Hugh Grant. Said there was great turnout.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1267 on: December 07, 2019, 04:03:30 PM »

snip

I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.

Worth noting these are all nearly a week old and date from when Labour was closer to 10 points down on average compared with 6-7 now. Putney could be a Labour lead now and Southport a tie.

Completely agree with you about Guildford and the Lib Dems, though. The rumours on the ground there are, if anything, even more encouraging than they've been in Esher & Walton.

On that subject, the Tories seem to have actually shown up to campaign for the first time in weeks. I spotted two or three new Tory lawn signs this evening, still outnumbered by Lib Dems, though - and this is in the *suuuuper* Tory part of the ward (Cobham). My partner went to an even in Walton today with Gina Miller and the actor Hugh Grant. Said there was great turnout.

It's reached the  point where I would be surprised if Esher & Walton doesn't come in as marginal Raab hold or better for the Lib-Dems next week. Raab has screwed up badly and he's in the part of the country where BoJo's 'Get Brexit Done' can't pull many favors.
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #1268 on: December 07, 2019, 04:14:01 PM »


Crikey, I thought that was your parody interpretation of the article rather than the actual headline. Wink
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1269 on: December 07, 2019, 04:17:50 PM »

Ooh, Putney is the constituency I lived in, a perfectly generic cross-section of what Rich-West-London is like.

Aside from the yummy mummy brigade, I always used to figure that being just over the river from Fulham helped bring in a rather different "young graduate" crowd from what you get in East London; it's also ram full of South Africans, who I imagine are among the more conservative of immigrant groups. The only reason Labour are competitive, Brexit or not, is the massive council estate in Roehampton - plus all the purpose built and ex-council flats near the Common.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1270 on: December 07, 2019, 04:24:18 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 04:39:16 PM by Oryxslayer »



Deltapoll's national weekend numbers.



YouGov's weekend poll.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1271 on: December 07, 2019, 05:18:30 PM »

Labour's best hope, unless something massively changes, is a large polling error in their favour.
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Blair
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« Reply #1272 on: December 07, 2019, 06:00:23 PM »

Did I miss the beef?
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Pericles
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« Reply #1273 on: December 07, 2019, 06:21:35 PM »

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?
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« Reply #1274 on: December 07, 2019, 06:42:52 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 07:01:02 PM by DistingFlyer »

Three-day poll aggregate update (7 Dec):

Cons - 43.4% (-0.1%), 348 MPs (+30)
Lab - 32.8% (-8.3%), 215 MPs (-47)
Lib Dem - 12.4% (+4.8%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 5.3% (+1.7%), 51 MPs (+12)
GP - 2.3% (+0.6%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 46
Overall swing: 4.0% to Cons
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