United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135662 times)
DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1225 on: December 06, 2019, 02:36:45 PM »

Three-day poll aggregate update (6 Dec):

Cons - 42.8% (-0.8%), 344 MPs (+26)
Lab - 32.8% (-8.3%), 219 MPs (-43)
Lib Dem - 12.5% (+4.9%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 4.2% (+0.6%), 51 MPs (+12)
GP - 3.0% (+1.4%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 38
Overall swing: 3.7% to Cons
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1226 on: December 06, 2019, 02:43:32 PM »


Essentially stable on last week, of course. Swing of up to 3.5 on 2017.*

*'Up to' because the Conservative percentage landed on the 43.4: a pollster's 43% but which could easily be a pollsters 44%.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1227 on: December 06, 2019, 02:53:52 PM »

Also, for non UK posters, the impact of what has happened on 'Jewish voters' will be electorally minimal and impact on at most, Finchley and Hendon, already Tory held and perhaps Bury South.

'Kashmiri family politics', which is of course an admittedly horrible euphemism for the interconnectedness of Muslim, Hindu and Sikh voting patterns as ever will have more potential electoral effect.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1228 on: December 06, 2019, 02:57:50 PM »

Jewish voting patterns in Britain are a real mess to understand because the community is very small and very fragmented; there isn't even really a 'mainstream' in the sense that there is in the USA for instance. There is a major division between Secular and Orthodox, and (of course) a high proportion of the latter are Hasidic and have to be seen as a separate grouping; there are also very important regional differences - London Jewry is different to Manchester Jewry which is very different to Hertfordshire Jewry etc. Surveys over the years have often shown wildly different results depending on their method (broadly speaking: when a very tight definition that is basically religious in character is used, you get a heavily Conservative result, when a broader definition is used this is generally very much not the case. There's no reason to assume that both 'types' of survey are incompatible, but, please, for God's sake try only to compare like with like). The electoral system also confuses things, as there is (in a General Election at least) never a party ballot or single nationwide candidate to vote for and as all British minorities are much more conditional in their support for any party than the majority population: the right candidate can change preferences easily, as can the wrong candidate.

What makes it all even more of a mess is that we do not have much in the way of local breakdown of results here. Data lower than ward level is never collected (let alone published) and ward level information mostly only exists from local elections (some ward results were released from some local authorities at the last General Election; the only one relevant to this discussion was Camden, which includes Hampstead). The small size of the community becomes an issue again, as does the fact that the different parts of it have different geographies (the usual pattern: the Secular tend to disperse, the Orthodox concentrate).

Anyway, it's fairly clear that at least a plurality of Jewish voters in 1997 and 2001 went with Labour (quite probably, and very unusually, with a higher share in 2001 than 1997) and that things would have been rather tight in 2005.* In 2010 it is unlikely that the Jewish electorate was much worse for Labour than the national electorate. Since then relations have obviously deteriorated significantly. A notable thing is that while wards with large Orthodox populations are often strongly Conservative they usually give strikingly low shares of the poll to other parties of the political Right. Historically it was also the case that very affluent wards with large Orthodox populations often elected Liberal councillors or sometimes came close to doing so; this largely died out over the past twenty years, but maybe we'll see a return to form. It seems that ChangeUK did quite well with Jewish voters in the Mickey Mouse European elections this summer, presumably because Berger was a member at the time.

*A curiosity is that on neither occasion when a major party's candidate for Prime Minister happened to be Jewish (Howard in 2005, Miliband in 2015) did that party appear to benefit particularly or at all with Jewish voters. Of course Howard's links to the wider community have always been weak (and he spent his career emphaising his minority status as a Welshman rather than as a Jew), while Miliband is from a secular academic-Left part of the community that is quite distant from the rest of it these days.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1229 on: December 06, 2019, 03:12:35 PM »

Anyway, it's fairly clear that at least a plurality of Jewish voters in 1997 and 2001 went with Labour (quite probably, and very unusually, with a higher share in 2001 than 1997) and that things would have been rather tight in 2005.* In 2010 it is unlikely that the Jewish electorate was much worse for Labour than the national electorate. Since then relations have obviously deteriorated significantly. A notable thing is that while wards with large Orthodox populations are often strongly Conservative they usually give strikingly low shares of the poll to other parties of the political Right. Historically it was also the case that very affluent wards with large Orthodox populations often elected Liberal councillors or sometimes came close to doing so; this largely died out over the past twenty years, but maybe we'll see a return to form. It seems that ChangeUK did quite well with Jewish voters in the Mickey Mouse European elections this summer, presumably because Berger was a member at the time.


Wonder if Berger being on the Lib-Dem ticket will flip these parts of the Finchley vote Orange. That seat is kinda a three-way marginal right now with the Lib-Dems pushing hard for both sides of the community (former labour for secular Jews, Jewish for Orthodox). I was reminded of Lieberman in South Brooklyn when you described these wards. The region normally went overwhelmingly Democrat or overwhelmingly republican based on local issues, but recently has seemingly moved into increasing alignment with the overwhelmingly GOP side. 2000 exemplifies this 'community swing' the best, with the Brooklyn Hasidim region being more democratic than the Brooklyn minority precincts. This was all thanks to the Democrats putting Lieberman, a Jew, in the VP slot. Perhaps the Lib-Dems nominating a Jew against two other non-Jews is enough to flip overwhelming Con wards to overwhelming Lib-Dem wards in this seat (I'm not daft enough to think this occurs outside her constituency).
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1230 on: December 06, 2019, 03:17:08 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2019, 03:20:38 PM by King of Kensington »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1231 on: December 06, 2019, 03:21:02 PM »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal.

I thought it was swingy based on denomination. If it isn't then that's my fault for believing the toplines from the 905 York seats.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1232 on: December 06, 2019, 03:39:51 PM »

No matter how "rogue" the Tories go, they're still basically the bourgeois party in Britain.

Why upper class twits like Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg are considered "populists" astounds me. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #1233 on: December 06, 2019, 03:42:54 PM »



The Clock is ticking down on Labour at an alarming rate. Corbyn needs to win the Debate tonight, and decisively so it would seem. If he makes it about Trustworthiness he can, I am convinced.

Or for this whole Andrew Neil interview, or there lack of, thing to fester
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Pericles
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« Reply #1234 on: December 06, 2019, 03:49:55 PM »



The Clock is ticking down on Labour at an alarming rate. Corbyn needs to win the Debate tonight, and decisively so it would seem. If he makes it about Trustworthiness he can, I am convinced.

Or for this whole Andrew Neil interview, or there lack of, thing to fester

At this point he probably needs both.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1235 on: December 06, 2019, 04:03:34 PM »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Liberal sometimes, but right-wing Liberal no doubt. Being a Lib-Con swing demographic in Canada means being on the center-right, after all (outside of certain odd community-based voting patterns, which of course do happen among Jews in Canada as well...)
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #1236 on: December 06, 2019, 04:24:11 PM »

How’s the debate going so far
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afleitch
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« Reply #1237 on: December 06, 2019, 04:30:49 PM »

Voted!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1238 on: December 06, 2019, 04:32:21 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2019, 04:39:04 PM by Oryxslayer »


Seems to have both been okay for BoJo and Corbyn failed to land crushing points. We will see a larger BoJo lead in the YouGov snap poll than last time. Comparing it to last time is the only thing inferable from these snap polls.

Edit: Well, 1% gained from last time is 1%. Strange, I thought BoJo did better and Corbyn worse than last time.

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Pericles
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« Reply #1239 on: December 06, 2019, 04:43:06 PM »

52-48?! This has to be some kind of sick joke.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1240 on: December 06, 2019, 05:49:08 PM »




Pretty much.
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Roblox
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« Reply #1241 on: December 06, 2019, 05:57:04 PM »


Jonathan pie does an infinitely better job of holding the Tories to account than the mainstream UK media ever will. You really do hate to see it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1242 on: December 06, 2019, 06:39:58 PM »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Not sure about last election, but in 2006 Jewish community went 54% Liberal vs. 25% Conservative, but by 2011 totally flipped around.  Pretty sure they've gone Conservative since as Thornhill where largest used to be a Liberal riding but is now one of the safest Tory ones.  Mind you Harper was very pro-Israel so unlike in UK it was less about anti-Semitism of progressive parties (Liberals in Canada are more pro-Israel than British Tories if you look at UN voting record), but under Harper Canada was one of the few countries aside US that stood firmly with Israel.

In US its true Jewish community tends to vote heavily Democrat although GOP swung from 21% in 2008 to 30% in 2012.  With Trump the fact most Jews in the US live in large metropolitan areas and are more likely to have a college degree makes him a tough sell.  Historically I think they leaned left as left had a stronger record on minority rights than right did.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1243 on: December 06, 2019, 07:06:15 PM »

Any idea about seat projections?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1244 on: December 06, 2019, 10:29:20 PM »

YouGov MRP will be updated on Tuesday, December 10th at 22:00.
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Intell
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« Reply #1245 on: December 06, 2019, 10:38:39 PM »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Not sure about last election, but in 2006 Jewish community went 54% Liberal vs. 25% Conservative, but by 2011 totally flipped around.  Pretty sure they've gone Conservative since as Thornhill where largest used to be a Liberal riding but is now one of the safest Tory ones.  Mind you Harper was very pro-Israel so unlike in UK it was less about anti-Semitism of progressive parties (Liberals in Canada are more pro-Israel than British Tories if you look at UN voting record), but under Harper Canada was one of the few countries aside US that stood firmly with Israel.

In US its true Jewish community tends to vote heavily Democrat although GOP swung from 21% in 2008 to 30% in 2012.  With Trump the fact most Jews in the US live in large metropolitan areas and are more likely to have a college degree makes him a tough sell.  Historically I think they leaned left as left had a stronger record on minority rights than right did.

In Canada aren't Orthodox Jews heavily tory, while non-orthodox jews are liberal leaning group, with secular jews being even more pro-liberal.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1246 on: December 07, 2019, 06:09:44 AM »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1247 on: December 07, 2019, 07:20:34 AM »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1248 on: December 07, 2019, 08:10:28 AM »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27

SF are on average set to lose one seat next week - most likely Foyle, but there are two potential others. However, it's still a 27 majority because the speaker now is Labour, so there's an extra nonvoting opposition member.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1249 on: December 07, 2019, 08:42:52 AM »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27

SF are on average set to lose one seat next week - most likely Foyle, but there are two potential others. However, it's still a 27 majority because the speaker now is Labour, so there's an extra nonvoting opposition member.

Deputy speakers also don't vote and they're politically balanced (two Tories and one Labour when the Speaker is Labour; two Labour and one Tory if the Speaker is Tory) so in practice that has no impact.
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