United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135788 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1175 on: December 05, 2019, 05:00:12 AM »

Sikhs remain highly loyal to Labour, a schism in their Southall heartland at the time of the 2007 byelection (a group led by the local "community leader" passed over for the nomination defected to the Tories) ultimately didn't count for much. They have, in this country and elsewhere, suffered a fair amount of ignorant abuse from racists that was actually "meant" for Muslims - and attempts by a few in their ranks to play the sectarian (ie anti Muslim) card to boost the Tory cause have had little traction.

Hindus are a different matter admittedly, though even there it shouldn't be overstated - a clear plurality continue to support Labour and much of the pro-Tory activism there has become linked with stans for Modi, which is not universally popular. It is worth mentioning too that Priti Patel originates from the Ugandan Asian community, which has always been more pro-Tory than average due to their gratitude to the party that admitted them to the UK in the 1970s.

Hope this helps!
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afleitch
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« Reply #1176 on: December 05, 2019, 05:02:51 AM »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc either a large minority or an outright plurality of practicing Catholics in Great Britain today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish. They'd thus be doubly inclined against Brexit and shopkeeper-caste English nationalism.

It can vary. My local knowledge (Glasgow and Lanarkshire) doesn't suggest significantly higher levels of practicing Catholics who are Eastern European as compared to Irish descended and in my area; Tuscan or pre 1918 Polish-Lithuanian. Bear in mind the age and education of post 2004 EU migrants; they are more likely to have been non practicing anyway or indeed anecdotally, escaping creeping Catholic political authoritarianism intentionally.

In Scotland of course Catholic voters were the most pro Yes group and in 2015 moved from being the least likely to vote SNP in 2010 to the most (SNP support is highest amongst Catholics and Nones and lowest amongst Episcopalians (read English) ) Support fell back in 2017, but it fell back for Labour too. They are a key target group this time round.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1177 on: December 05, 2019, 05:23:31 AM »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

It's actually a lot like American Catholics in the northeast and Democrats, actually, although the Troubles do have something to do with it.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #1178 on: December 05, 2019, 09:32:24 AM »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 09:35:40 AM by SInNYC »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

According to this poll (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/) Jews planned to vote 69-22 Tory over Millibrand even though Millibrand was of Jewish origin (though secular).

The above poll said they voted 63-26 Tory over Corbyn in 2017. So, if both polls are accurate (and they almost certainly are not), Jews actually swung slightly towards Corbyn.

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Intell
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« Reply #1179 on: December 05, 2019, 09:42:26 AM »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

According to this poll (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/) Jews planned to vote 69-22 Tory over Millibrand even though Millibrand was of Jewish origin (though secular).

The above poll said they voted 63-26 Tory over Corbyn in 2017. So, if both polls are accurate (and they almost certainly are not), Jews actually swung slightly towards Corbyn.



The corbyn one is based upon data, the 2015 one is a poll. I would presume jews voted more for millibrand than for corbyn.
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« Reply #1180 on: December 05, 2019, 09:50:15 AM »

Sikhs remain highly loyal to Labour, a schism in their Southall heartland at the time of the 2007 byelection (a group led by the local "community leader" passed over for the nomination defected to the Tories) ultimately didn't count for much. They have, in this country and elsewhere, suffered a fair amount of ignorant abuse from racists that was actually "meant" for Muslims - and attempts by a few in their ranks to play the sectarian (ie anti Muslim) card to boost the Tory cause have had little traction.

Hindus are a different matter admittedly, though even there it shouldn't be overstated - a clear plurality continue to support Labour and much of the pro-Tory activism there has become linked with stans for Modi, which is not universally popular. It is worth mentioning too that Priti Patel originates from the Ugandan Asian community, which has always been more pro-Tory than average due to their gratitude to the party that admitted them to the UK in the 1970s.

Hope this helps!

The reminds me of a probably useless anecdote I've been meaning to share about when I went canvassing (for Labour but don't worry, I wont be campaigning in this thread) in a marginal constituency in Middlesex last weekend. I got the impression from activists from the area that the situation in Kashmir has been an issue there locally and that the Conservative MP is (shall we say) taking sides as part of their bid for re-election. It's also possible that this may be working for said MP.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1181 on: December 05, 2019, 10:35:56 AM »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 10:44:27 AM by DaWN »

ANECDOTE ALERT

I did some leafleting for the Lib Dems in Streatham this morning. The bloke I spoke to said he was sure  they'd make second and would cut the Labour majority. How much of a cut he didn't say, but I'm going to guess a fairly small one. The bloke thought they might have had a chance if Chuka had stood again but that didn't happen so they don't. Make of that what you will; i.e not much.

Delivered some leaflets in one of the estates and frankly I'd be flabbergasted if a single person I leafleted doesn't vote Labour. It's the thought that counts I suppose.

I did, however, lose a fight with a letterbox at one point, the results of which are displayed thus.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1182 on: December 05, 2019, 10:48:51 AM »


I did, however, lose a fight with a letterbox at one point, the results of which are displayed thus.


I can't remember what piece I was reading, but the candidate interviewed said her team always brought spatulas or kitchen tongs  with them while canvassing. She said it helps getting the leaflets in through mail slits...especially when there is an aggressive animal inside.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1183 on: December 05, 2019, 11:29:43 AM »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 11:43:40 AM by Oryxslayer »



Economist Poll of Wrexham. Everything being equal, I don't think we needed this poll, Wrexham was always in the splash zone and probably goes blue even under the scenarios where BoJo fails to get a majority. Interestingly, it's main divergence between YouGov is the Tory/Labour numbers, the minors are all similar overall.

I also don't like that 'don't know' is removed, but that's how polls are presented in the uk.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1184 on: December 05, 2019, 11:35:59 AM »

Tiny sample size is never great news, but the doubling of the Plaid percentage is a big flashing light there. Not that that particular constituency isn't vulnerable, particularly with Lucas standing down.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1185 on: December 05, 2019, 11:53:35 AM »



G Elliot Morris made an article on the economist about Lib-Dem vote efficiency. This was the leading image, the  only thing not behind the paywall. Frankly, the image is rather juvenile since everyone knows the Lib-Dems defy universal swing and most models. Team Orange surges hard when they target a seat (the target is normally predisposed towards the  Lib-Dems anyway), but gains only a bit outside said targets. This is why the Lib-Dems usually undershoot their polled vote, but overshoot their polled seats: a Lib-Dem voter is usually more educated than the electorate and wants their vote to matter.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1186 on: December 05, 2019, 11:54:50 AM »

Still no postal vote through and I fly out on Monday Sad
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Shadows
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« Reply #1187 on: December 05, 2019, 12:42:07 PM »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

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Shadows
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« Reply #1188 on: December 05, 2019, 12:47:03 PM »

Labour needs its leave voters too – or a Johnson era beckons

Since the campaign began, Labour’s gradual recovery in the polls has been driven by those previously antagonised opponents of Brexit. While its support among remainers has risen by on average 10 points to 44%, among the Lib Dems that figure has slumped seven points to just 26%. A month ago, Jeremy Corbyn’s net favourability among remainers was a dire -33, now recovering to -4; for Jo Swinson, it has plummeted from +13 to -8. In certain remain seats, particularly in the south, Labour candidates have been surprised at how much their vote has held up.

Yet there is no question that the chief obstacle to Labour’s electoral ambitions is now on its leave flank. The party’s support has also grown among leavers during this election campaign, but from a derisory level: from 11% to 16%. There is a reason that the Tories believe their chances of securing a decisive majority lie in achieving what May failed to do: sweeping through Labour’s so-called “red wall” of leave-voting constituencies in the north, the Midlands and Wales. Constituency-level polling should be treated with caution, but according to a poll by Survation, Labour’s polling in Grimsby – a seat it has held since 1945 – has collapsed from 49% since 2017 to 31%, almost all to the Brexit party, which would allow the Tories to win through the middle.

Private research suggests that around 80 Labour leave seats are at some risk of being lost to the Tories (although it was conducted before Labour’s more recent polling recovery). In some Midlands seats, up to half of Labour leave voters have left the party’s fold. In the final two weeks of the campaign, Corbyn’s team still has much work to do to persuade remainers who have defected to the Lib Dems that their only hope is a Labour-led government. But the party’s prospects are doomed without the support of more leave-inclined voters. Domestic policies that are popular among them, from investment in creaking public services to public ownership, are key to winning them round. The threat posed to the NHS by a deal with the Donald Trump administration is critical, too.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/27/labour-election-leave-voters-boris-johnson-hard-brexit
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1189 on: December 05, 2019, 01:45:40 PM »

Lucid Talk’s big Northern Ireland poll will be released tomorrow.

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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1190 on: December 05, 2019, 02:02:17 PM »

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

There will be no CUK Holds.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1191 on: December 05, 2019, 02:05:37 PM »

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

There will be no CUK Holds.

Heh
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1192 on: December 05, 2019, 02:41:01 PM »

The only CHUK'ers that can survive the sinking ship were those that were smart enough to board the Lib-Dem lifeboats.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1193 on: December 05, 2019, 04:02:30 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 04:09:09 PM by Mangez des pommes ! »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

We're so sorry'f the bedroom tax
Has been causing you distress in any way
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« Reply #1194 on: December 05, 2019, 05:34:36 PM »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.
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cp
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« Reply #1195 on: December 05, 2019, 05:39:41 PM »

Since we're doing stories from the front lines, here's mine: I handed out flyers at the train station this morning. Mostly encouraging responses, with one glaring exception. A lady in her 50s started yelling at me, saying I was trying to overturn a democratic vote, the EU was corrupt, and various other Daily Maily agitprop. I stayed calm until she walked away, at which point she turned back and hollered at me: "You're not even English!"

For the record, I was born in Canada and still speak with that accent. I'm also a UK citizen and have lived here 12 years.

I'm really never going to forgive the Tories for what they unleashed these past three years. They deserve oblivion, not a majority.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1196 on: December 05, 2019, 05:40:53 PM »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

We're so sorry'f the bedroom tax
Has been causing you distress in any way


'Cause ve vere only obeying orders
And the one who made us do it all was "he"!


(Spitting Image at its prime would have been so brutal on the current leaders)
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1197 on: December 05, 2019, 08:24:17 PM »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1198 on: December 05, 2019, 09:11:02 PM »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1199 on: December 05, 2019, 09:23:27 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 10:19:57 PM by KaiserDave »

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.


No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too

Corbyn is getting a lot of bad press now, and in many cases rightfully so. But 2017 was hardly a media love-fest for Corbyn.
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