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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85949 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1150 on: December 04, 2019, 09:40:46 am »

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

That's also possible. Labour could theoretically be overstated.

It is possible, but given that some pollsters are still (for instance) factoring in a notably lower turnout for younger voters (Kantar continues to claim only 20% of age 18-24 are "certain to vote") perhaps not.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1151 on: December 04, 2019, 09:55:06 am »

It isn't entirely clear (and I suppose now never will be) quite what went wrong in 2017, so adjusting for whatever that was isn't really possible.* Adjustments, though, are made all the time, usually to fit in with whatever is presumed to be the reality at the present moment. The British polling industry is really not very good and when it gets things about right it is mostly by accident.

*Although ICM no longer make the structural pro-Conservative adjustment that caused them so much embarrassment that year.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1152 on: December 04, 2019, 10:25:30 am »
« Edited: December 04, 2019, 10:36:38 am by Oryxslayer »



YouGov's got an interesting chart out. While the numbers look bleak for Labour, remember that voters cast ballots on more issues than Brexit.
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Baki
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« Reply #1153 on: December 04, 2019, 10:38:24 am »

To me the bleak part are the Labour-Leave numbers, not the remain ones.

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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1154 on: December 04, 2019, 10:53:47 am »



YouGov's got an interesting chart out. While the numbers look bleak for Labour, remember that voters cast ballots on more issues than Brexit.

Given that the Lib Dems have dropped Revoke as a policy because it's turned out be extremely unpopular on the doorstep, there are reasons to doubt the accuracy of this finding.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1155 on: December 04, 2019, 11:29:23 am »
« Edited: December 16, 2019, 06:26:26 pm by Kutasoff Hedzoff »

What is the one factor that that played a very large part in the election of Trump and the passage of Brexit. It probably will give qthqe Tories a majority this year.

A hint: Merkel was instrumental in setting up this factor in Europe.

Another hint: the Democrats are going to use this issue to re-elect Trump next year.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1156 on: December 04, 2019, 12:01:23 pm »



YouGov's got an interesting chart out. While the numbers look bleak for Labour, remember that voters cast ballots on more issues than Brexit.

Given that the Lib Dems have dropped Revoke as a policy because it's turned out be extremely unpopular on the doorstep, there are reasons to doubt the accuracy of this finding.

Especially since Corbyn actually said *he* would stay "neutral", not the wider party.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1157 on: December 04, 2019, 12:38:40 pm »

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

Quite possible, certainly I think part of the reason for the miss in 2017 was overcorrection from 2015.  Survation and Yougov were accurate so doubt you are seeing one there, but I noticed ComRes and ICM had most Pro-Tory numbers in 2017, while are now showing the narrowest gap so for those giddy about the closing gap, those ones may be overcorrecting.  That being said I think turnout amongst younger voters which is anyone's guess will be key.  If they show up in big numbers it will be closer than polls suggest, if they have usual turhout, Tories will probably win quite comfortably.

I would also focus on seat and regional polls as this election a uniform swing will do terrible.  A uniform swing would show Labour holding a lot of their traditional Northern seats they probably wouldn't while in South show them well back in ones they are likely to hold or at least be competitive in.  A uniform swing probably wouldn't show them in danger of losing Sedgefield which they are while in the same time suggest Canterbury is lost even though I think Labour has a decent chance at holding it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1158 on: December 04, 2019, 01:01:05 pm »

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

Quite possible, certainly I think part of the reason for the miss in 2017 was overcorrection from 2015.  Survation and Yougov were accurate so doubt you are seeing one there, but I noticed ComRes and ICM had most Pro-Tory numbers in 2017, while are now showing the narrowest gap so for those giddy about the closing gap, those ones may be overcorrecting.  That being said I think turnout amongst younger voters which is anyone's guess will be key.  If they show up in big numbers it will be closer than polls suggest, if they have usual turhout, Tories will probably win quite comfortably.

I would also focus on seat and regional polls as this election a uniform swing will do terrible.  A uniform swing would show Labour holding a lot of their traditional Northern seats they probably wouldn't while in South show them well back in ones they are likely to hold or at least be competitive in.  A uniform swing probably wouldn't show them in danger of losing Sedgefield which they are while in the same time suggest Canterbury is lost even though I think Labour has a decent chance at holding it.

Hey, we think alike! Since we do, I'll throw on another data point that I agree with. Today I was reading something from Peter Kellner and he made a good point about the YouGov model. His basic point was that the YouGov model broadly shows whats going on in seats 'like this one' not 'exactly this one.' He brings up local cases like Barnet, since YouGov's MRP poll doesn't weight for Jews (too small of a demo, explained why they got Barnet wrong in 2017 as well), IDS and Raab's prominence in the Tory party, and Caroline Flint's pro-Brexit views in Don Valley. Essentially, if a seat has X demos and filed candidates, it should have X percentages, which is good for almost every situation. In some situations though, individual issues matter that are beyond a MRP polls capability to cover. This is why we should believe that Canterbury is more likely to stay Red than Bassetlaw, despite Canturbury having a smaller labour Margin in 2017.
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Kyng
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« Reply #1159 on: December 04, 2019, 01:27:13 pm »



YouGov's got an interesting chart out. While the numbers look bleak for Labour, remember that voters cast ballots on more issues than Brexit.

The figures on the bottom row add up to 122%... so, what gives :-/ ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1160 on: December 04, 2019, 02:00:24 pm »

I'm really not convinced that fussing excessively over subsamples of subsamples is a particularly good use of everyone's time.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1161 on: December 04, 2019, 03:05:17 pm »

Three-day poll aggregate update:

Cons - 43.0% (-0.5%), 344 MPs (+26)
Lab - 33.0% (-8.0%), 220 MPs (-42)
Lib Dem - 13.2% (+5.6%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 3.8% (+0.2%), 50 MPs (+11)
GP - 2.8% (+1.2%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 38
Overall swing: 3.7% to Cons
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1162 on: December 04, 2019, 03:10:46 pm »

An overall majority like that would be a good result for Johnson, who hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1163 on: December 04, 2019, 03:13:54 pm »

An overall majority like that would be a good result for Johnson, who hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.

And the overall majority is likely larger since their should be at least 7 non-voting members: 6 is the average Sinn result right now and 1 Lab MP is the speaker.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1164 on: December 04, 2019, 03:29:53 pm »
« Edited: December 04, 2019, 03:34:34 pm by DistingFlyer »

An overall majority like that would be a good result for Johnson, who hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.

And the overall majority is likely larger since their should be at least 7 non-voting members: 6 is the average Sinn result right now and 1 Lab MP is the speaker.

It might also be a rare occasion where a party's lead was about the same - or maybe even larger - on election day than when the campaign began, though it's close.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1165 on: December 04, 2019, 03:32:14 pm »

Getting a bit ahead of ourselves here aren't we?

And this may be an occasion when the polls "average lead" turns out to be not much use.
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cp
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« Reply #1166 on: December 04, 2019, 03:42:19 pm »

Getting a bit ahead of ourselves here aren't we?

And this may be an occasion when the polls "average lead" turns out to be not much use.

Indeed. There's no doubting the Tories are in the lead. That said, a case can be made that every major election in the UK (and the Scottish referendum) since 2005 had a crucial final week. Personally, I'm more bearish about a Labour victory than I was a few weeks ago (more bullish about a Lib Dem upset in E&W, tho), but if I was working for the Tory campaign and said we could put our feet up and coast right now I would expect to be fired.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1167 on: December 04, 2019, 04:07:09 pm »

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

Quite possible, certainly I think part of the reason for the miss in 2017 was overcorrection from 2015.  Survation and Yougov were accurate so doubt you are seeing one there, but I noticed ComRes and ICM had most Pro-Tory numbers in 2017, while are now showing the narrowest gap so for those giddy about the closing gap, those ones may be overcorrecting.  That being said I think turnout amongst younger voters which is anyone's guess will be key.  If they show up in big numbers it will be closer than polls suggest, if they have usual turhout, Tories will probably win quite comfortably.

I would also focus on seat and regional polls as this election a uniform swing will do terrible.  A uniform swing would show Labour holding a lot of their traditional Northern seats they probably wouldn't while in South show them well back in ones they are likely to hold or at least be competitive in.  A uniform swing probably wouldn't show them in danger of losing Sedgefield which they are while in the same time suggest Canterbury is lost even though I think Labour has a decent chance at holding it.

Hey, we think alike! Since we do, I'll throw on another data point that I agree with. Today I was reading something from Peter Kellner and he made a good point about the YouGov model. His basic point was that the YouGov model broadly shows whats going on in seats 'like this one' not 'exactly this one.' He brings up local cases like Barnet, since YouGov's MRP poll doesn't weight for Jews (too small of a demo, explained why they got Barnet wrong in 2017 as well), IDS and Raab's prominence in the Tory party, and Caroline Flint's pro-Brexit views in Don Valley. Essentially, if a seat has X demos and filed candidates, it should have X percentages, which is good for almost every situation. In some situations though, individual issues matter that are beyond a MRP polls capability to cover. This is why we should believe that Canterbury is more likely to stay Red than Bassetlaw, despite Canturbury having a smaller labour Margin in 2017.

Exactly and also local MPs.  Case and point is Bolsover.  On paper, this should be an easy Tory pickup, but with Dennis Skinner being a long serving and sort of a legend he might hold it.  Other interesting ones are Broxtowe and Hastings & Rye as both Tory incumbents aren't running at all in latter or as a different party and its quite likely in 2017 with a generic candidate or open seat Labour would have taken those two.  Since Tories have a bigger lead now, they will probably hold those, but if lead is reduced to under 5 they could flip.  On North Norfolk, many show Liberal Democrats still competitive, but that was a Norman Lamb constituency not LibDem, so I don't even expect it to be close and I suspect results will match other rural constituencies in Norfolk, thus Tories in mid 50s, while LDs and Labour languishing in 20s.  Even Westmorland & Lonsdale, I think Tories have a good chance of taking since Tim Farron is not leader while for Sheffield-Hallam I don't buy it will flip back to Liberal Democrats with Nick Clegg out.  It either stays Labour which is most likely or flips to the Tories which is possible despite numbers suggesting otherwise. 

Likewise MRP may miss tactical voting.  In North, Brexit party still at close to 10% in many Labour leave seats and if this swings over to Tories, you could see an even bigger Tory breakthrough here.  At same time, many wealthy posh central London constituencies like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Wimbledon, and Putney have seen a large drop in Tory support, but Liberal Democrats and Labour splitting the vote equally so if that continues, Tories win those, but if voters coalesce behind either, then they will lose all of those.  Even Rushcliffe with Kenneth Clarke gone, will probably be closer than in past elections as it is becoming more a Nottinham suburb as opposed to rural although Labour would need to be ahead nationally to actually flip the seat so I suspect it will stay Tory, but with Clarke being a staunch remainer and more centrist than most, he could probably appeal to middle of the road voters that will be tough to hold.  So I wouldn't be surprised if whenever Labour returns to power, they win Rushcliffe, but again too far behind and not enough time this time around to win it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1168 on: December 04, 2019, 04:47:18 pm »
« Edited: December 04, 2019, 04:58:55 pm by Oryxslayer »



-_-
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1169 on: December 04, 2019, 05:00:32 pm »

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work?? Huh
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1170 on: December 04, 2019, 05:03:38 pm »

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work?? Huh

The total adds up to only 90% which is far too low.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1171 on: December 04, 2019, 05:20:47 pm »

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work?? Huh

M E B Y O N   K E R N O W


They will win St Austell and Newquay with 4,200%
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1172 on: December 04, 2019, 05:43:25 pm »

I'm not sure what Dennis Skinner is actually like as a constituency MP in all fairness.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1173 on: December 04, 2019, 06:22:42 pm »
« Edited: December 04, 2019, 06:48:50 pm by CumbrianLeftie »

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work?? Huh

The total adds up to only 90% which is far too low.

It also shows the SNP up 1, and "Others" up by 4(!)

Supposedly this is the product of showing people a "full choice" of options.

But in many seats "others" are not standing at all, and in lots of places where they do they will poll derisory votes. It genuinely makes little sense at all.....
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Dad
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« Reply #1174 on: December 04, 2019, 06:25:09 pm »

How are y'all's takes on the East Devon race?

Seems rather odd that LDs fielded a candidate here...
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