United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135855 times)
Roblox
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« Reply #1075 on: December 02, 2019, 07:24:51 PM »

If labour suffers a massive defeat next week Corbyn should step down, but at the same time I wonder if any labour leader will be able to overcome this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-british-media-labour-tories-bias-press-polls-a9229161.html


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1076 on: December 02, 2019, 07:44:32 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 09:38:36 PM by Skill and Chance »

It seems like the WWII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1077 on: December 02, 2019, 08:13:25 PM »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

I never realized radioactive mutants were so pro-Conservative.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1078 on: December 02, 2019, 08:36:33 PM »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

Seems to be that way, though Labour has won some close elections. 2005 is also an interesting example, it wasn't close in seats and Blair got a 64-seat majority, but Labour only won the popular vote by 3 points (far less than the 7 point win that it took for the Tories to win their bare majority in 2015). FPP used to favor Labour, though in the last two elections it has favored the Tories instead.
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« Reply #1079 on: December 02, 2019, 09:38:52 PM »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

Except for Thatcher in 83 and 87 though
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cp
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« Reply #1080 on: December 03, 2019, 01:30:01 AM »

It seems like the WWII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

If we're looking for decades-long cycles and patterns in Westminster elections, the standard account portrays Labour as the dominant party from 1945-1979 (when they won 6/10 elections and were in government for 18/34 years) and the Tories ever since (7/10 wins, 27/40 years). It's also worth noting that during these periods, when the 'non-dominant' party took office they did not substantially challenge the overarching consensus set by the other party.

If one were inclined to put faith in these observations, it would be quite easy to craft a narrative of a generational change in 2019 that would see the Tories on the losing end. I think that approach is far too simplistic, alas.
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Blair
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« Reply #1081 on: December 03, 2019, 03:15:18 AM »

FWIW thanks to First Past the Post a 42-35 Tory Victory can still see some very weird results; the 2015 result shows how a Tory lead of 7 can really throw curveballs
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1082 on: December 03, 2019, 04:42:43 AM »

Particularly since as the polls stand, the major change from 2017 to 2019 is in the pattern of Labour and LD support. How evenly or unevenly that LD support is distributed will make a lot of difference - indeed, that probably applies even if they've been squeezed down below 10% by polling day.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1083 on: December 03, 2019, 06:09:44 AM »

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

I never realized radioactive mutants were so pro-Conservative.

I refer you to the result in Copeland.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1084 on: December 03, 2019, 08:37:26 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2019, 08:42:21 AM by Oryxslayer »





Morning Poll roundup. I'm interested in the London poll, because it seems to confirm that the city will go one way (ousting tories) whereas the country may go another. The pollster even says in their article that we have reached the point where the numbers don't really matter (the safe seats are confirmed as safe), it's more local factors like candidates and targeted issues in the swing seats.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1085 on: December 03, 2019, 09:00:50 AM »





Morning Poll roundup. I'm interested in the London poll, because it seems to confirm that the city will go one way (ousting tories) whereas the country may go another. The pollster even says in their article that we have reached the point where the numbers don't really matter (the safe seats are confirmed as safe), it's more local factors like candidates and targeted issues in the swing seats.

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1086 on: December 03, 2019, 09:06:15 AM »

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1087 on: December 03, 2019, 12:19:56 PM »

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1088 on: December 03, 2019, 12:56:16 PM »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1089 on: December 03, 2019, 01:11:50 PM »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

Which is why her winning easily will be the most pleasurable of the numerous wonderful disappointments you will endure on election night
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1090 on: December 03, 2019, 01:19:25 PM »

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1091 on: December 03, 2019, 01:22:55 PM »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

I mean it makes sense that internal polling has them down. The SNP's revival is thanks to their present ability to convince 2014/15 but not 2017 voters to turn out. This demographic is concentrated most strongly in the urban strip, not the tory highlands and borders. This is unfortunately why Labour's Scottish prospects are rather dire right now. It's also why Swinson may be polling a tight race.

HOWEVER. Tactical voting among unionists is a thing and is the reason why SNP undershot every projection in 2017. It's something that is both hard to poll and occurs spontaneously. it may not be enough to save those with small majorities, but it will likely save Swinson with her 10% lead.  
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #1092 on: December 03, 2019, 01:23:10 PM »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

"I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle - even if I lived in a Tory/Liberal Democrat marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader - but I'd certain vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Liberal Democrats yet another well-deserved humiliation."

This is an entirely hypocritical contradictory statement. You destroy and make everything in between the dashes meaningless with everything stated after the 2nd dash, because after stating there is no way you would vote against a Corbyn-led Labour candidate regardless of the nature of the electoral district, you state circumstances that would have you voting against the Corbyn-led Labour candidate.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1093 on: December 03, 2019, 01:25:14 PM »



New Poll. I'm not sure  if we have had a poll recently where Labour went down? If so, this is a first. However, this seems like a dead cat bounce poll more than anything.
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cp
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« Reply #1094 on: December 03, 2019, 01:37:44 PM »

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.

That's a nice thought for a Lab supporter, but even I'm not willing to go that far Tongue

On the poll, something to keep in mind is that YouGov publishes two polls per week with slightly different methods for collection/weighting. The relevant poll to compare this one to is the one conducted Nov 26-28, which showed the Tories at 43 and Labour at 32.

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

Mostly historical reasons relating to the miner's strike and the local government. Liverpool was run by one of the most ardent left councils and was the centre of power for the Labour Party's leadership through most of the mid 20th century. Think of it as to Labour what the Cotswolds are to the Tories.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #1095 on: December 03, 2019, 01:45:16 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2019, 02:12:30 PM by PoliticalShelter »

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

Because a higher proportion of its population are members of trade unions (the traditional reason for voting for the Labour Party) and unlike certain other areas with higher trade union membership (like Wales) it voted remain so the Conservatives can’t really use brexit as an issue to try to weaken Labour’s margin.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1096 on: December 03, 2019, 02:03:17 PM »

Honestly I'd love to see a Labour minority that needs Lib Dem support just to see the reaction of anomalocaris and other dimmer Corbynites. I wonder if it will be "You know, on reflection, I've never minded the Lib Dems all that much..." or "CLASS TRAITOR CORBYN WORKING WITH THE LIB DEMS!" Either way it will be hilarious.

Regarding Swindon, she is inevitable herself, but if the Lib Dems perform badly then I doubt she'll be leader for long. Personally, I think 20 seats or more she's fine, 15-20 she'll be ok in the short term but probably won't serve the whole parliament, under 15 she's finished.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1097 on: December 03, 2019, 03:18:26 PM »

Here's a three-day average of polls, with my own MP estimates (based on nationwide swing figures):

Cons - 43.3% (-0.3%), 345 MPs (+27)
Lab - 33.0% (-8.0%), 219 MPs (-43)
Lib Dem - 13.5% (+5.9%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 3.5% (-0.1%), 50 MPs (+11)
GP - 2.5% (+0.9%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 40
Overall swing: 3.9% to Cons


Will update figures regularly, then make an actual prediction a day or two before the vote.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1098 on: December 03, 2019, 03:38:56 PM »

Is this a last minute Labour surge or not?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1099 on: December 03, 2019, 03:44:48 PM »

Is this a last minute Labour surge or not?

I'm not seeing a surge. The weekend polls showed an uptick, but it was marginal at best. YouGov should update their model tomorrow which will give us another data point. This upcoming weekends polls will likely be make-or-break if Labour's getting a detectable surge since we got Trump and another 1v1 debate this week, both serious opportunities for Labour to benefit.
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