United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135816 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #950 on: November 27, 2019, 04:36:08 PM »

Another ComRes: Con 41, Lab 34, LDem 13, BP 5, Others 7

Fieldwork 25th and 26th.

What is the trend in that poll?

CON -1
LAB +2
LD +1
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DaWN
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« Reply #951 on: November 27, 2019, 05:05:07 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #952 on: November 27, 2019, 05:07:06 PM »

Remember what I said about the Scottish seats and Third parties  people. -_- However, that Blue-Red number is believable and likely.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #953 on: November 27, 2019, 05:09:00 PM »

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/ official site.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #954 on: November 27, 2019, 05:17:34 PM »

If Boris does not agree to Neil interview, I would vote Brexit no matter where I lived.
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afleitch
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« Reply #955 on: November 27, 2019, 05:27:03 PM »

YouGov data in a fun spreadsheet:

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=69D0560CC54123FE!1334&authkey=!AHUShvooX0LbK6c
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #956 on: November 27, 2019, 05:30:27 PM »


I'm just going to point out that the 'Red Right Hand' has not been used officially to represent Northern Ireland since 1973 outside of a very few contexts. It's very much a Unionist symbol.

43% would be the same as May got in 2017.

Also, remember a little thing called margin of error. The 95% confidence values give the Conservatives a minimum of 328 and a maximum of 385...

Also, it's predicting Labour lose Bolsover:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
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DaWN
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« Reply #957 on: November 27, 2019, 05:46:21 PM »

On closer inspection it is indeed bullsh!t, but still very potentially damaging bullsh!t. The Lib Dems need to draw up a strategy to deal with the fallout from this because its something a lot of non-political people will see. There's now a public document that makes the party look irrelevant. 20 seats is looking further and further away.

Depressing stuff. Think I'll just give up on British politics after this election. Zero interest in following the Boris & Corbyn Show.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #958 on: November 27, 2019, 05:50:15 PM »

Swinson is as charismatic as my mom.

That's a horrible thing to say about the person who gave you life.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #959 on: November 27, 2019, 05:56:37 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:02:12 PM by Mangez des pommes ! »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms). I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #960 on: November 27, 2019, 05:58:50 PM »







Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.
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cp
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« Reply #961 on: November 27, 2019, 05:59:46 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.


Just so we're all clear, this is a forecast for an election two weeks away based on a poll that's nearly a week old using a model that specifically doesn't account for local campaigns. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it is hardly conclusive.
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DaWN
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« Reply #962 on: November 27, 2019, 06:01:34 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.
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Lumine
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« Reply #963 on: November 27, 2019, 06:07:25 PM »

Ouch. I do feel sorry for the Lib Dem staffers who will have to work extra hard on those "x party can't win here!" bar charts.
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vileplume
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« Reply #964 on: November 27, 2019, 06:11:11 PM »







Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.

Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.
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Matty
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« Reply #965 on: November 27, 2019, 06:13:21 PM »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #966 on: November 27, 2019, 06:14:07 PM »


Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.

Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.

That was a value call. Last time, they seriously missed the other By-Election flip in Copeland, saying that it would return rather nicely to it's former owner because the general data is based  off of the  last election. So, if there was a color for 'weird' that would be it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #967 on: November 27, 2019, 06:15:00 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:18:07 PM by Oryxslayer »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #968 on: November 27, 2019, 06:22:35 PM »

Just so we're all clear, this is a forecast for an election two weeks away based on a poll that's nearly a week old using a model that specifically doesn't account for local campaigns. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it is hardly conclusive.

Sort of. The Interviews were done from the 21st up to and until Yesterday. So part of the data is a week or so old, but much of it is new as well. Agree with your general point though.
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rc18
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« Reply #969 on: November 27, 2019, 06:23:42 PM »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.

And it includes Whitstable, becoming a fashionable escape to the country for middle class Londoners.
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vileplume
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« Reply #970 on: November 27, 2019, 06:30:44 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:40:02 PM by vileplume »


Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.

That was a value call. Last time, they seriously missed the other By-Election flip in Copeland, saying that it would return rather nicely to it's former owner because the general data is based  off of the  last election. So, if there was a color for 'weird' that would be it.

Fair enough except there's quite a few blue seats that I reckon the LDs stand a better chance of winning than Brecon. Firstly they barely won it in a by-election (their forte) in an area of traditional strength, secondly rural celtic fringe areas aren't exactly the kind of areas where they are primarily appealing atm and thirdly the MP isn't exactly inspiring and thus I doubt has anything in the way of a personal following. Brecon has all the hallmarks of a Tory regain IMO.
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vileplume
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« Reply #971 on: November 27, 2019, 06:36:06 PM »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.

Funnily enough the Canterbury district did vote narrowly Leave. I imagine Herne Bay (in North Thanet) was emphatically for Leave which just tipped it? Even so I'm still surprised that the Remain vote in the rest of the district didn't outweigh it.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #972 on: November 27, 2019, 06:36:18 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.

Yes, we all know you're a delusional hack who lives in an alternate reality of his own making. Nobody's trying to make you come to your senses anymore, we know that's not going to happen. I'm not going to stop stating basic facts just because they upset you, though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #973 on: November 27, 2019, 06:50:18 PM »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #974 on: November 27, 2019, 06:54:20 PM »

Having fun messing around with the "Best for Britain" MRP forecast, noticed an absurd prediction for Rhondda: Labour 40%, PC 23%, Conservative 19%.

This would be the best Tory performance in Rhondda since *checks notes* 1923? Maybe such a performance is possible now, given the slow demise of local peculiarities, but it seems to me that we ought not expect to this to happen and that many of these MRP predictions don't pass the smell test. In order for Labour to plunge ~25 percentage points and for the Tories to increase their vote share by 7 percentage points, we'd expect many Labour voters to flip to the Tories in this constituency and there's little indication that this will happen. Also, it's worth emphasizing that this would be the worst Labour performance in Rhondda since, uh, 1910? Anything can happen, I could have sex with the Pope in theory, but anyone who expects this to happen is insane imo.
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