United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135707 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #800 on: November 22, 2019, 04:40:52 PM »

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.

Which it isn't. If the BBC has any bias, it's biased in favor of a competitive race. But that won't stop partisans from rallying around the flag and digging in deeper, because that is always easier if you have made up your mind - it's harder to change.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #801 on: November 22, 2019, 04:42:57 PM »

Getting closer.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #802 on: November 22, 2019, 05:07:17 PM »

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.

The food bank figure needs explaining to avoid the kind of wild distortions that ultimately hurt Labour.

The figure is more like three million and that's the number of parcels that were given out. Food bank parcels contain three days of food for emergency situations, which are very frequently, but not always benefit related. You need a note from the Jobcentre or a doctor to get one:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/05/welfare-changes-key-factor-rising-poverty-food-bank-use-study-finds

'Benefit sanctions' is a loss of benefit for breaking the conditions for having them:
https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/benefit-sanctions

Considering I once got sanctioned for going to an agency registration instead of signing on - and had told the JCP what I was doing beforehand, they might be fairly casual in handing them out. I did manage to successfully appeal that one.
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Blair
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« Reply #803 on: November 22, 2019, 05:21:34 PM »

fwiw much like QT the BBC would weight the attention; even in Sheffield you are more than capable of finding enough Conservatives, or heaven forbid they could find people sad enough to travel by train.

Besides all it takes is 5-6 people being loutish in the audience to make it appear on TV as if one side is dominant.
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thumb21
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« Reply #804 on: November 22, 2019, 05:59:38 PM »

I think that if anyone had a favourable audience, it was probably Sturgeon. She wasn't questioned nearly as strongly as the other leaders. It was a mainly English audience who probably weren't as well informed on her record.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #805 on: November 22, 2019, 06:32:34 PM »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #806 on: November 22, 2019, 06:52:45 PM »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #807 on: November 22, 2019, 08:05:52 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 08:23:22 PM by Coastal Elitist »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #808 on: November 23, 2019, 01:20:10 AM »

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t);

I should clarify that that's not what I meant by "bullsh*t culture war issues". Basically, the distinction I make is between issues that are about providing symbolic benefits to a constituency vs those that are about material benefits. There are certainly plenty of LGBT-related issues that fall into the latter category (as there are plenty of Brexit-related issues - and Labour's position on the material component of Brexit is indeed excellent all around). There's a difference between those questions and the questions that are mainly around the affirmation of symbols (of which the Scottish independence question is one, because let's face it, the material consequences of it are impossible to assess one way or the other, and even if they weren't, they clearly aren't what's driving support or opposition to independence).
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cp
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« Reply #809 on: November 23, 2019, 04:01:02 AM »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.

I watched all but Corbyn's bit and I thought Swinson did reasonably well given how hard she was getting hit. The evening was probably still a net negative for her, but I didn't see a moment that was truly irredeemable. Sadly, Johnson also didn't have such a moment, though I think he also came out looking worse overall. The part of his shtick where he babbles/stutters in the lead up to point gets old fast in a setting like this. I also think it makes him look frazzled and unprepared, but that might just be my motivated reasoning at work.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #810 on: November 23, 2019, 06:06:04 AM »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.

Generally true, but not universally so as the fall out from this one shows Wink
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #811 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:14 AM »

Interesting analysis of the campaign from Conservative Home:

   https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/johnsons-campaign-stops-suggest-cchq-is-not-betting-the-house-on-a-landslide-yet.html

It notes that unlike May, Johnson has weathered both his first debate and the launch of Labour’s Manifesto.  If he can weather the launch of his own, he might be set.”

It points out he has divided his time between with visits to the West Midlands were there are several Labour marginals and visits to the South West “to shore up Liberal Democrat facing marginals.”  Thus he seems to be “dividing his attention pretty evenly between defensive and offensive targets.”

It concludes the “key test of a commander is their ability to adapt on the fly.  With Labour failing their 2017 ignition and Liberal Dem campaign appearing to stall, the Conservative strategists might have to make a decision whether to adopt a more ambitious and aggressive posture.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #812 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:57 AM »

Getting closer.



It's worth noting that the Tories have kept a decent lead solely by cannibalizing the Leave vote and turning the Brexit Party into dust. The ceiling for the Tories is no higher than the 42% they have here. On the other hand, by squeezing a few seats away from the SNP in Scotland and continuing to eat away at the LibDem (presumably Remain) vote, they can continue to grow as in 2015.

So with a few weeks left the Tories have a nice lead but have no room to grow, and Labour trails but still has a lot of room to grow. Sound familiar? I would still rather be the Conservative Party than Labour with these numbers, but the trajectory of this campaign means that at Tory HQ they'll be white-knuckling it to see how much ground Corbyn the Campy Campaigning Champion makes up between now and the election.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #813 on: November 23, 2019, 06:19:02 AM »

It was a strange crowd - at one point Fiona Bruce picked like 7 Scottish nationalists in a row to ask questions to Corbyn about Scotland. So Swinson getting grief from the more local middle class youth was maybe the least surprising thing - but she's not as effective a campaigner and speaker as she thinks she is. I actually though Boris handled his first part terrible mainly because he just couldn't answer their concerns about Russia and then he rallied well. Sturgeon was forgettable. Corbyn was the best, but apart from the antisemitism the questions were all easily replied within the manifesto's confines.


I really hope Swinson's incompetence and radical message on Remain doesn't cost soft Tories who find a potential Johnson Premiership "unbecoming" . Think her general tone will cost potential upset seats like Esher where people otherwise positive about a LiBDem platform see her and think its a joke party again.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #814 on: November 23, 2019, 07:48:06 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 08:02:13 AM by Arkansas Yankee »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    
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DaWN
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« Reply #815 on: November 23, 2019, 07:51:15 AM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #816 on: November 23, 2019, 08:11:11 AM »

The Daily Mail website is a pain to use so I might have missed stuff, but this is impressively dishonest stuff. This appears to be a regional poll (of the whole of the North of England and the Midlands!) that shows a swing of 4.5. Which is not substantially different to what national polling suggests at present - actually it is slightly less than the most recent Survation national poll. In order to justify the general tone of the article, they have decided to milk the hell of out selected subsamples, which, as we all know, is serious '...' territory. It is a little disturbing that they have a quote to that effect as well from someone from the polling firm in question; this is the sort of thing that does not help boost confidence in the polling industry.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #817 on: November 23, 2019, 08:50:05 AM »

Yougov: 42(0)/30(0)/16(+1)/4(0)/3(-1)   21-22 Nov

Tory Manifesto will be released tomorrow.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #818 on: November 23, 2019, 09:02:23 AM »

While I think this piece from the Mail is nothing but A+ level spin, I would push back on the idea that constituency polls are useless. A constituency poll is like throwing a dart at a dart board with limited accuracy in regards to results. You should never expect bulls eyes, but no darts will end up incredibly far from that center. They in essence are data points, which work best with other data points and not standing on their own, just like every other poll ever.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #819 on: November 23, 2019, 09:10:48 AM »

Could I just make the point that The. UK. Does. Not. Have. Ridings.

Thanks
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afleitch
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« Reply #820 on: November 23, 2019, 12:52:02 PM »

So there's an expectation of a glut of polls this weekend.

Worth remembering is that all that matters is the direction of travel not the actual individual gaps as such; last weekend saw a widening of the Tory lead after Labour had been closing the gap.

I'm taking a risk here but if Labour don't close the gap even marginally this weekend, it does look difficult for them to 'repeat 2017' which has been the mantra I've heard a lot from activists. The caveat to this is the 'likely to vote' numbers especially for younger voters. They should start to tick up.

But again there's a potential for this to be the election that 2017 'should have been.'
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afleitch
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« Reply #821 on: November 23, 2019, 12:57:48 PM »

And on that front, Opinium have the Tory lead up to 19 points up from 16 points last week.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #822 on: November 23, 2019, 01:17:34 PM »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.
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afleitch
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« Reply #823 on: November 23, 2019, 01:21:43 PM »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #824 on: November 23, 2019, 01:26:11 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.
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