United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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parochial boy
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« Reply #750 on: November 21, 2019, 09:51:23 AM »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #751 on: November 21, 2019, 10:08:43 AM »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.

Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 
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afleitch
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« Reply #752 on: November 21, 2019, 10:11:46 AM »



Some tentative suggestion of tactical voting.
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« Reply #753 on: November 21, 2019, 10:41:38 AM »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #754 on: November 21, 2019, 12:42:00 PM »



Reminder: Not all tactical voters are LD-Tory or LD-Lab voters.
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cp
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« Reply #755 on: November 21, 2019, 01:48:33 PM »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #756 on: November 21, 2019, 01:58:20 PM »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.


Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 

Reading and Cambridge would be excellent examples of those sorts of places - thriving service/it oriented job markets that employ lots of graduates
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Babeuf
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« Reply #757 on: November 21, 2019, 02:13:53 PM »

Probably won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.
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DaWN
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« Reply #758 on: November 21, 2019, 02:19:58 PM »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.

Definitely won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.

FTFY
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afleitch
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« Reply #759 on: November 21, 2019, 05:14:47 PM »

So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?
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cp
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« Reply #760 on: November 21, 2019, 05:27:53 PM »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #761 on: November 21, 2019, 05:34:24 PM »


Even better: they have Swansea East (!!!!!!!!!) down for that as well. What the actual Christ.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #762 on: November 21, 2019, 05:39:53 PM »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.
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DaWN
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« Reply #763 on: November 21, 2019, 05:43:36 PM »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


That's interesting then - perhaps I might have to change my rating then. I suspect there might be a whiff of close but no cigar to it but maybe the tactical voting potential is there. It's obviously very unpredictable though...


Apparently these guys nailed the Canadian election... not sure they'll be repeating that here. My personal favourite is apparently Leeds NW more likely to LD than St Albans.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #764 on: November 21, 2019, 06:25:37 PM »

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?

You'd think, but some of the earlier ones (at least: can't comment on the more recent ones) were actually only weighted by... um... Euro Election vote? Bizarre stuff.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #765 on: November 21, 2019, 06:37:51 PM »

Reading and Cambridge would be excellent examples of those sorts of places - thriving service/it oriented job markets that employ lots of graduates

Quite so. It also needs to be emphasised that very few constituencies these days are at all uniform; communities like that no longer exist, and constituencies themselves are drawn to hit quotas rather than to represent communities of interest - they are not natural units. Which makes it even less likely that the maths works out. Besides, Occam is usually right.

Of course 'these probably all suck you know' does not mean that they all suck in the same direction. And it is true that, for various long-term grudge reasons relating to the collapse of its traditional economy (i.e. cod fisheries), it is quite likely that 'Brexit' alone is a stronger siren-song in Grimsby than in most places.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #766 on: November 21, 2019, 06:41:49 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 09:54:17 PM by Coastal Elitist »

Labour's manifesto is crazy.

From the financial times: https://www.ft.com/content/1b35a81e-0c5f-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

The Labour party manifesto is nothing more than a blueprint for socialism in one country. The combination of punitive tax increases, sweeping nationalisation, and the end of Thatcher-era union reforms turn the clock back 40 years. Set alongside a vast expansion of the state — based on spending amounting to six per cent of national income — Labour’s plans are a recipe for terminal economic decline.

Whereas previous Labour leaders, from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband, accepted the market economy, the hard left clique around Jeremy Corbyn have elected to replace it with their own statist model. This owes more to François Mitterrand’s socialist programme in 1981 than to a realistic prescription for reforming a modern economy, still less preserving the UK’s treasured status as a beacon for foreign investment.

The tragedy of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party, like so many populist movements, is that it does identify areas that genuinely need fixing. Nearly a decade after the Conservatives returned to power, real wages have still not returned to their pre-crisis peak. Homelessness has risen. Basic public services such the criminal justice system, social care and local government are dire. Privatised water and rail companies are not delivering for users. Large parts of the population feel excluded from the bright spots of prosperity, mainly in the south-east.

Yet virtually all of Labour’s prescriptions to tackle these challenges are misguided. Mr Corbyn’s original sin is to cast private enterprise as a necessary evil to be managed rather than being part of the solution to the problems his party has identified. The assault on business is an attack on wealth creation.

First, Labour is proposing a staggering increase in taxes — close to £83bn a year by 2023-24, with the bulk coming from higher levies on business investment, much of it being squeezed out of the private sector in year one.

Second, the nationalisation programme goes far beyond anything contemplated in a generation. True, private monopolies in rail and water have fallen short in performance. There is a case for re-regulation or indeed re-examining ownership; but to extend nationalisation to the energy utilities, broadband and Royal Mail is an unwarranted interference which will shatter confidence and deter investment.

Third, the party proposes collective sectoral bargaining over pay and conditions, claiming this “will increase wages and reduce inequality”. It would instead stifle innovation and lock workers out of employment. Similarly, plans for rent control would advantage “insiders” who already rent and push “outsiders” into an unregulated black market.

In some areas, the manifesto is less radical than expected. It has dropped the fantasy target of hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2030, which would require a hugely expensive and near-impossible transformation of the economy. Also gone are proposals to bring private schools into the state sector, and a mooted idea to give private tenants a right to buy their home from their landlord. On security and defence it commits to renewing Trident, remaining part of Nato and keeping to the alliance’s target for military spending of 2 per cent of national income.

The British economy is not broken. It has proven remarkably resilient in the face of Brexit uncertainty. Labour’s plans would exponentially increase the risks to the economy. A responsible centre-left programme to restore fairness and opportunity, to rebuild public services, and preserve private sector incentives, was there for the taking. Mr Corbyn has missed an open goal.

it's not against the terms of service to post this. Also I've seen many others do this
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #767 on: November 21, 2019, 07:25:24 PM »

In some areas, the manifesto is less radical than expected. It has dropped the fantasy target of hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2030, which would require a hugely expensive and near-impossible transformation of the economy. Also gone are proposals to bring private schools into the state sector, and a mooted idea to give private tenants a right to buy their home from their landlord.

Dissapointing.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #768 on: November 21, 2019, 07:30:14 PM »


Even better: they have Swansea East (!!!!!!!!!) down for that as well. What the actual Christ.

Barnsley East: Tossup

uh okay?
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Continential
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« Reply #769 on: November 21, 2019, 07:30:27 PM »

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?

You'd think, but some of the earlier ones (at least: can't comment on the more recent ones) were actually only weighted by... um... Euro Election vote? Bizarre stuff.
Had that been the case in 2015, Farage would have had a lot of seats.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #770 on: November 21, 2019, 08:44:11 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 08:54:53 PM by Oryxslayer »

Since the Tories haven't released their manifesto, we can play a little game: approximately how much if it will be dedicated to Brexit? 1/5th? 1/3rd?

Note that Labour buried their Brexit policy near the end of their manifesto, a reflection of their campaign strategy to bridge the Remain/Leave divide.
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Pericles
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« Reply #771 on: November 21, 2019, 09:05:22 PM »

With Great Grimsby an interesting factor is that Melanie Onn endorsed Boris Johnson's Brexit deal (probably to try and get re-elected). I'm not sure how many people know about that, or how it'll factor into the election. This is of course a heavily Leave seat, Onn probably calculated that she could outperform by backing Brexit. However, it does seem quite likely (and ironic) that she'll lose anyway, and most voters won't care or even know. Perhaps it'll even hurt her by reducing Remainer support and enthusiasm for her, and even in these types of constituencies a majority of the Labour base are probably Remainers.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #772 on: November 21, 2019, 11:46:26 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 03:18:09 PM by Mangez des pommes ! »

The fact that folks like the Financial Times are terrified of the manifesto is precisely what makes it so good.

It's such a shame that Corbyn is such a sh*tty messenger, because the message itself is amazing.
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cp
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« Reply #773 on: November 22, 2019, 02:08:06 AM »



Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

If by 'north' you mean Kensington, Wimbledon, and so on, then yes I'd agree. The Lib Dems aren't serious contenders in most of 'The North', i.e. Yorkshire, Lancashire, etc. They *are* making a big play in the Southwest (Cornwall and Devon) but I haven't heard anything about the campaigns in that part of the country.

On the way to work this morning the Tories were handing out pamphlets to commuters at the train station. A bit late to the game, tbh; the Lib Dems have been doing that for two weeks, albeit intermittently.
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Blair
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« Reply #774 on: November 22, 2019, 04:20:44 AM »

FWIW it's remarkable for the FT to say that the British Economy isn't broken- and equally galling that the FT didn't back Miliband who was offering pretty much what the FT wants now (no Brexit, modest state investment, regulation rather than nationalisation etc) 

At the risk of sounding like the boorish 'you're part of the problem' types- if you think the british economy is working well (current growth rate of 0.1% irrc) then I'm going to be a bit sceptical of your views.
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