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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Coolface's deceased great-granduncle)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85894 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #700 on: November 19, 2019, 07:31:37 pm »

Anyways, I think the debate went well for Jeremy Corbyn and serves as a reminder that Boris Johnson being an incredibly polarizing figure is hardly an asset when the aim of the Conservative Party is winning a majority - a repeat of 2017 won't do and a one-on-one debate with Corbyn was always going to push many people towards Labour.

Jeremy Corbyn could have wiped the floor with Boris Johnson if instead of evading his question, he had remarked that he wouldn't campaign in the referendum because he wants "the people to decide". This would still constitute a kind of evasion but would be more clever and would stand as a nice foil to Boris Johnson's polarizing rhetoric.
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Ishan
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« Reply #701 on: November 19, 2019, 07:33:19 pm »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #702 on: November 19, 2019, 07:34:18 pm »
« Edited: November 20, 2019, 11:46:34 am by Dynamite Shovel »

Seriously I get that many people here hate Corbyn which is hardly surprising if you're in any way right-wing, but mucking up this thread just ranting about how terrible he is about as insightful and productive as that clique who spammed up the KY Governor election thread circle jerking about how obviously Titanium Safe R the election was.
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Vosem
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« Reply #703 on: November 19, 2019, 07:34:48 pm »

Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?

There's a vicious antisemite running for Prime Minister of a country with nuclear weapons. This ceased being solely about the UK a long time ago.

Take this noise pollution somewhere else dude, no one cares about your opinion and no one knows who you are! This is a thread for discussing the UK election, not a place for spewing second-rate invective lifted from the Daily Mirror or the Daily Mail.

Please leave, thanks.

No comment about his education? You're slipping, man. It's always sad to see.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #704 on: November 19, 2019, 07:40:16 pm »

If the debate was actually aimed at providing a forum for a productive discussion then I suspect we would have seen something like the Clinton-Trump debates where both candidates are speaking to two different countries. There is a reason why BoJo kept punching at corbyn on Brexit after all. But the debates were entirely unproductive and like I said earlier, the country lost tonight.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #705 on: November 19, 2019, 08:02:20 pm »

I did not watch it and I gather that I was correct in my decision. As far as impact, I presume the main thing will be a reminder that the election is 'real' - this has been such a low-key campaign thusfar that that isn't a minor matter. Though, for the record, if the general view is that it was a draw, that means a strategic loss for Johnson given Corbyn's low approval ratings.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #706 on: November 19, 2019, 08:24:45 pm »

I do not think that Corbyn is antisemitic. He just refuses to deal with those that inhabit his party or speak at the same rallies.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #707 on: November 19, 2019, 08:32:00 pm »
« Edited: November 19, 2019, 08:37:40 pm by Arkansas Yankee »

With Tories in the low 40s in most polls and Labour in the high 20s or at 30 in most polls, I do not see them getting anywhere near as close as they did in 2017 without the collapse of the Lib Dem or some real tactical voting.  I do not yet see either really happening.

The Tories are benefitting from the collapse of the Brexit Party.  Farage is making a fool out of himself.  I am sad to see it.  He could be leading the swing to the Tories rather than causing it by becoming a fool.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #708 on: November 19, 2019, 10:37:32 pm »

The audience probably shouldn't be allowed to laugh and jeer in the debate, that factors into what the people at home think when they should just focus on the points the candidates make. This isn't a partisan thing because the audience laughed and jeered at both candidates.
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cp
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« Reply #709 on: November 20, 2019, 01:11:34 am »

The audience probably shouldn't be allowed to laugh and jeer in the debate, that factors into what the people at home think when they should just focus on the points the candidates make. This isn't a partisan thing because the audience laughed and jeered at both candidates.

I suppose you're right, but I've always enjoyed listening to audience reactions. They're a kind of instantaneous snap poll of whatever the person speaking has just said that cuts through the bullsh!t and bluster. They're especially useful in the age of social media where partisans on either side (online or in commentary panels on TV afterwards) will spin *everything* as pro-us/anti-them.

I think it would be useful to have a debate with no audience but with a more prosecutorial moderator and/or a format that allows the contestants more time to speak freely. Have that alongside other debates where there is an audience and you might get the best of both worlds. 
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cp
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« Reply #710 on: November 20, 2019, 01:59:10 am »

Johnson definitely won because he made the debate all about Brexit.

ITV decided beforehand to make the first half of the debate focused on Brexit. The second half was on other topics, including the NHS where Corbyn did substantially better than Johnson did.


Tories being utter c-nts with CCHQPress twitter changed their name to 'factcheckUK.'

This appears to be getting a lot of coverage, with pretty universal condemnation; even right-wing hacks like Janet Hart-Brewer have denounced it. Twitter's also made a formal statement saying that they will swiftly discipline any account that tries this again.
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jfern
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« Reply #711 on: November 20, 2019, 02:04:26 am »

I'm amazed at how many people said both did well.

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urutzizu
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« Reply #712 on: November 20, 2019, 05:05:22 am »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have a feeling that this confirmation bias at play here, though.

The TV audience yesterday was 6.7 Million by the way.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #713 on: November 20, 2019, 05:54:13 am »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.
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cp
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« Reply #714 on: November 20, 2019, 06:29:19 am »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

Based on what? The assorted 2010 and 2015 election debates ranged between 2 and 9 million viewers, and the numbers out today are just the overnights. People who watch on catch up aren't counted, nor are the masses of people who watch clips of the debate online.

Some more detailed figures from the YouGov after action poll here:



A trend worth keeping an eye on: Whenever Johnson, or to a lesser extent the Tory party in general, has a lead in various 'attributes' (more likeable, more relatable, better on the NHS, etc.) it's almost always because of softer support for Labour/Corbyn rather than a higher regard for the Tories. Put another way: Tories are lock step behind Johnson and his party no matter what while Labour supporters are more ambivalent. This dynamic was also present in 2017.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #715 on: November 20, 2019, 08:00:55 am »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

The point is, he was likely to do a *lot* worse before the debates.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #716 on: November 20, 2019, 08:41:40 am »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #717 on: November 20, 2019, 09:22:28 am »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #718 on: November 20, 2019, 09:50:58 am »
« Edited: November 20, 2019, 09:54:26 am by Filuwaúrdjan »

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #719 on: November 20, 2019, 10:38:51 am »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #720 on: November 20, 2019, 11:14:04 am »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

And Bojo stepping all over his party's tax plan roll out (oops).
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #721 on: November 20, 2019, 11:22:18 am »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)
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DaWN
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« Reply #722 on: November 20, 2019, 11:49:07 am »

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #723 on: November 20, 2019, 11:57:12 am »

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).

Of course, its much more a comment on how a certain type of political "observer" sees things.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #724 on: November 20, 2019, 12:04:32 pm »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..
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