United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

Was this Deltapoll? If so, when combined with the obviously odd business of LibDem support dropping by a third in a week and transferring all to the Tories, we can say 'bad sample' and draw a line through it.

Edit: O.K. I've seen their uploaded tables and... this is a bad poll, I'll just leave it at that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the polls look like this on Election Day then Boris clearly wins. However, I think that the margin will most likely be closer and there is a significant possibility of a big Labour surge.

Even ignoring the polls that look... strange... then, yes, if the election was today you'd be shocked at anything other than a majority, the question would be the size of it. But as you say there's a long time to go, essentially a month. Two things to remember in addition to that: firstly, that the campaign has been very low-key so far, and secondly that everyone involved being disliked makes the potential for volatility higher (in all sorts of directions!) than was historically normal.

[Ishan]

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn

Yawn this shows you don’t know a lot about British politics.

If Labour ran on a pro-Brexit campaign, they would lose tons of seats and the Lib Dems would definitely have 60 something seats.
The Lib Dems are a Pro-EU party.

[Kyng]

This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.

CON 311, LAB 268? Good grief, I hope that doesn't happen . That probably means that:

1) Boris has a good chance of being able to cling on as PM (depending on what happens with the minor parties, there is the possibility of Corbyn becoming PM by assembling a very weak 'rainbow coalition');
2) Even if Corbyn doesn't get in, he'll probably still be able to stay on as Labour leader, on the basis that the party's number of seats in Parliament went up;
3) Whoever does become Prime Minister is going have a very hard time getting their Brexit plans through Parliament, because the numbers for a Brexit deal simply won't be there.

As someone who can't stand either Corbyn or Boris, and is sick of Brexit deadlock and uncertainty... this outcome sounds to me like the worst of all possible worlds.

[Silent Hunter]

It would be hilarious, in a very dark way.

[LabourJersey]

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

[afleitch]

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

[CumbrianLeftie]

McDonnell doesn't really want to be leader, and the party would likely want somebody a bit younger.

[jaichind]

One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

Was this Deltapoll? If so, when combined with the obviously odd business of LibDem support dropping by a third in a week and transferring all to the Tories, we can say 'bad sample' and draw a line through it.

Edit: O.K. I've seen their uploaded tables and... this is a bad poll, I'll just leave it at that.

What makes it bad ? Is it because it shows almost a third of 2017 LDEM voters going to CON ?  I agree that looks fishy.

[jaymichaud]

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

Probably some social democrat who isn't too centrist but also doesn't shake the table too much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.

[Walmart_shopper]

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.

[afleitch]

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.

It's gut wrenchingly visceral. And it's because there's a level of respect shown for the town and the victims that it feels that way. I cried.

[CumbrianLeftie]

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.

He has been very good on Brexit - whether he has all the needed skills to be leader is another question tho.

[Gary J]

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The left wing faction, which controls the Labour Party, will want to elect one of its own to replace Corbyn. That means under no circumstances can they permit someone like Keir Starmer to win. The left faction is far more interested in cementing total control of the Labour Party than in winning general elections.

I would not be surprised if someone like the totally obscure and untalented Rebecca Long-Bailey gets elected. We can then look back at Corbyn's leadership as a golden age of able statesmanship.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I am not going to list all the Antisemitism charges against Labour.   There seems to be a new one at least every other day.  Here is a new one.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693489/amp/Labour-Election-candidate-ran-secret-Facebook-group-advises-party-Holocaust-deniers.html?__twitter_impression=true

I do not see how Labour recovers in this atmosphere.  The continuing charges are worse than any of the complaints against the Tories.   I am sure this is why Corbyn’s satisfaction ratings are so low.

[Annatar]

G. Elliott Morris is a leftist hack it seems, he looks at a model that shows the range of Tory seats between 326-388 and he says he foresees a hung parliament.

 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1196199682751565828

[Pericles]

G. Elliott Morris is a leftist hack it seems, he looks at a model that shows the range of Tory seats between 326-388 and he says he foresees a hung parliament.

 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1196199682751565828

It seems like his personal opinion of how things will ultimately turn out, not him saying what the polls show right now (as I said right now a Tory majority is almost inevitable but on December 12 a Tory majority is far from inevitable)

[Annatar]

That may be true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems like his personal opinion of how things will ultimately turn out, not him saying what the polls show right now (as I said right now a Tory majority is almost inevitable but on December 12 a Tory majority is far from inevitable)

Yes: it is important to note that the official campaign period did not start until the 6th of November and that very little has happened since then - the tone has been subdued and the main news has been the business with the Brexit Party withdrawing half its candidates.

[Annatar]

Some thoughts from Matt Singh on how swings are occurring nationally vs in the marginal seats.

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1196041829533323264

[Arkansas Yankee]

Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html

[Blair]

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

Probably some social democrat who isn't too centrist but also doesn't shake the table too much.

ha.

[c r a b c a k e]

Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html

I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.

[CumbrianLeftie]

With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.