United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135809 times)
Cassius
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« Reply #575 on: November 16, 2019, 11:18:21 AM »

For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

As I understand, the proposal is for ‘current spending’ (welfare payments et al) to be covered by taxation, whilst ‘worthwhile investment’ will be funded by borrowing, so not quite a British version of a balanced budget amendment.

Of course, it’s just posturing for the ‘fIsCaLlY cOnSeRvAtIvE but SoCiAlLy LiBeRaL’ technocracy crowd that the Lib Dem’s have been gunning full bore for since Swinson took over. Not that most of them will understand the distinction between current and investment spending.

That seems a rather reasonable stance to have with allowances for recessions.

From what I can see on current spending it’s a return to the Osbornist view of surpluses needing to be maintained regardless of the wider economic picture, so I guess no allowances for counter-cyclical expenditure. Also, the definition of investment can be argued - from what I’ve read it will only apply to capital projects in the Lib Dem package, even though many (not me, but I’m not an economist) would argue that education and even childcare could be viewed as a form of investment.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #576 on: November 16, 2019, 11:34:01 AM »

The chances are that this won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.
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cp
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« Reply #577 on: November 16, 2019, 11:35:13 AM »

The chances are that this won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Indeed. This also seems unlikely to have much lasting impact ... but a girl can dream.
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DaWN
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« Reply #578 on: November 16, 2019, 01:14:05 PM »

For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

It's far from the best policy they could have come up with, but a policy that doesn't go down well with the internal Labour electorate isn't one that will necessarily go down badly with the types of voter the Lib Dems need to win seats.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #579 on: November 16, 2019, 01:26:54 PM »

The chances are that this won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Indeed. This also seems unlikely to have much lasting impact ... but a girl can dream.
Given that Corbyn was endorsed by David Duke this would be a stupid game to play
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #580 on: November 16, 2019, 02:30:14 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 02:53:25 PM by Oryxslayer »

Three London constituency polls were published by Deltapolls and reported on by The Guardian here. Overall, they show a similar picture  to what I talked about a while back on the wealthy, remainy, 'slice' of Western London. There's a third constituency here from the Jewish Barnet region, which confirms that even as the non-slice London keeps moving towards Labour, the Jewish vote remains Corbyn's metaphorical ulcer.

Important quote from guardian, which probably signals that all three would go LD if the Oranges keep polling well enough:

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-Most Labour and Lib Dem supporters are prepared to vote tactically if their preferred party is out of the running.

-Labour supporters are willing to switch to the Lib Dems in overwhelming numbers – in all three seats by enough to give the Lib Dems victory.

-Lib Dem supporters tend to prefer Labour, but far less decisively. If they can’t have a Lib Dem MP, quite a few would vote Conservative, in each case by enough to increase the Tory majority.






Images sourced from guardian article in post.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #581 on: November 16, 2019, 03:05:53 PM »

FPP is a cancer. There's a lot I like about Ed Miliband, but his contribution to torpedoing AV will go down as a black mark in history.
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cp
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« Reply #582 on: November 16, 2019, 03:18:40 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 03:26:58 PM by cp »

The chances are that this won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Indeed. This also seems unlikely to have much lasting impact ... but a girl can dream.
Given that Corbyn was endorsed by David Duke this would be a stupid game to play

No he hasn't. Duke commented on the reports about Corbyn's 'English irony' statement (widely misreported in the press, but never mind that) in 2018. Duke hasn't made an endorsement and if he did Corbyn would likely have the political sense to denounce it right away. Unlike Johnson.

FPP is a cancer. There's a lot I like about Ed Miliband, but his contribution to torpedoing AV will go down as a black mark in history.

Miliband did lots wrong, but this one isn't on him.

In any case, in the case of Finchley and Wimbledon, this is probably good news for the anti-Tory forces, as those seats are currently held by Tories and have never really been in reach for Labour. Kensington is currently held by Labour, but it was a *super* marginal seat, and the Tory candidate's showing in that poll is actually down about 4 points on their 2017 total. If some wise dame does a bit more polling in the lead up to election day and gives a clear indication of which party is in second place, I suspect there will be a bit of anti-Tory herding behind them.
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afleitch
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« Reply #583 on: November 16, 2019, 04:02:42 PM »

Some good new for the Tories in this weekends polls

BMG 0 0 0 0
YouGov +3 0 0 0
Deltapoll +4 +1 -5 0
ComRes +1 +3 -2 -2
Opinium +3 -1 -1 0

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DaWN
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« Reply #584 on: November 16, 2019, 04:05:18 PM »

We don't all have to have the constituency poll discussion again, do we?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #585 on: November 16, 2019, 04:20:24 PM »

We don't all have to have the constituency poll discussion again, do we?

We don't. However they are rare enough to post when they show up.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #586 on: November 16, 2019, 07:06:43 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 07:14:15 PM by Filuwaúrdjan »

Some good new for the Tories in this weekends polls

BMG 0 0 0 0
YouGov +3 0 0 0
Deltapoll +4 +1 -5 0
ComRes +1 +3 -2 -2
Opinium +3 -1 -1 0

From some of them yes. Though with the caveat that some of the ones showing the best numbers look very strange, and we all know what that often means. The general lack of agreement between firms continues...
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #587 on: November 16, 2019, 07:28:33 PM »

The polls showing the Tories on 44-45% are apparently saying some other weird and wonderful things, such as 90% of over-60s are going to vote. One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

The constituency polls are also not that recent, in particular the Kensington one was taken before Gyimah's comments about Dent Coad - which do not appear to have gone down well locally.
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Annatar
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« Reply #588 on: November 16, 2019, 08:04:12 PM »

According to the Economist's General Election tracker, on October 30th the Conservatives had a 10% lead over Labour, on November 16th they had a 12% lead. So far there has been no narrowing but Labour still has 4 weeks left to gain votes.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #589 on: November 16, 2019, 08:10:47 PM »

see what you wanna see innit
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #590 on: November 16, 2019, 08:18:27 PM »


Doesn't help that if you drew up a list of 'Britain's most obviously dodgy pollsters' then the Venn Diagramme between that list and the list of firms with contracts with the Sunday papers right now would... well...
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Pericles
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« Reply #591 on: November 16, 2019, 11:04:52 PM »


Doesn't help that if you drew up a list of 'Britain's most obviously dodgy pollsters' then the Venn Diagramme between that list and the list of firms with contracts with the Sunday papers right now would... well...

I usually am not receptive to the "Polls are junk, ignore them!" argument but I am more receptive to it for the UK than most contexts.
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Pericles
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« Reply #592 on: November 17, 2019, 01:29:32 AM »

Electoral Calculus has made some changes to their model that I thought were interesting. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Quote
This latest update has cut the predicted Conservative majority from over a hundred to around fifty. We have also improved the handling of seats where parties do not stand candidates, and improved the tactical voting feature in the user predictor.

The major change is the new baseline. Our modelling works by applying regression techniques (sometimes also called MRP or RPP) to detailed polling information to learn how voters with particular demographic and political characteristics tend to vote on average. This information is then applied to the census and political data of each seat to get an estimate of the current voting intention of each seat. The new baseline is based on recent polling and should give a more accurate "shape" of political opinion through the country.

Following the Brexit party's decision not to stand in half the seats, our predictors now assume that Brexit support is only counted by respondents who live in a seat where there will be a Brexit candidate. Using this convention, measured Brexit party support will appear to have halved, being around 4pc-5pc rather than 8pc-10pc. YouGov have announced they will poll on this basis, but other pollsters might not. When using the user predictor, use the smaller number to avoid over-estimating Brexit support.

The current estimate, based on a 10-point Tory lead, is reasonably in line with expectations (perhaps slightly higher than expected), showing around 350 Tory seats and 215-ish for Labour. For the purposes of this post, I'll focus on uniform swings from the Tories to Labour from the projections, to keep things simple (of course a major factor will be where support for other parties ends up). A 1% swing from the Tories to Labour (a swing from the projected percentages, not from 2017) results in 326 Tories to 232 seats for Labour, even though the Tory popular vote margin over Labour is 8-9 points. Another 1% swing means the Tories have a slight net loss from 2017, while Labour also loses 20 seats, this is with a 6-7 point Tory popular vote lead (so a significant national swing to the Tories from Labour). From there the changes are less, a further 1% swing results in 308-247, then 302-253, and with a virtually tied popular vote the Tories still have a significant lead in seats, 300-255 (of course they probably are ejected from government in this scenario).

This is just one model, though the use of MRP may make it more credible. It is an interesting dynamic, and if true the Tory position is a lot more precarious than the national polls make it seem. It does seem to go against the fact that Leave won most constituencies. However, a lot of the constituencies with very high Leave votes that Boris is trying to flip also seem to have strong Labour majorities, so a big swing that reduces but does not eliminate the Labour majority in these seats would be useless to the Tories in terms of seats. I haven't researched this in depth, please link me to research others have done on this, but this is another source of uncertainty for this election.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #593 on: November 17, 2019, 03:41:42 AM »

I think a Conservative majority of 50 is at the top end of realistic projections here.
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cp
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« Reply #594 on: November 17, 2019, 06:10:48 AM »

I think a Conservative majority of 50 is at the top end of realistic projections here.

I must confess, I'm all over the place how to read the state of play. The polls aren't good for Labour, but they're also not bad, and not really as positive for the Tories as the commentariat portrays them. Labour's policy announcements are going down well and Corbyn's TV appearances have been pretty good, but his rock bottom personal approval numbers seemed baked in. Johnson hasn't had a great week, but his middling/positive personal approval rating seems untouchable; why he isn't as unpopular as Corbyn still baffles me. With 3 1/2 weeks to go, anything from a Labour plurality to a Tory landslide seem possible, but the upshot of most people's analyses is that the Tories have a near-to-full majority locked in.

Meanwhile, I think IPSOS is going to release a poll for Esher & Walton some time soon. My landline just got called for a pretty extensive survey.
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Pericles
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« Reply #595 on: November 17, 2019, 06:22:30 AM »

If the polls look like this on Election Day then Boris clearly wins. However, I think that the margin will most likely be closer and there is a significant possibility of a big Labour surge.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #596 on: November 17, 2019, 07:17:22 AM »

I know most of the British posters here are either true red Labour supporters, even with Corbyn as leader, or you may not like Corbyn but your political heart remains true red and you still hope for a Labour victory.

Even so, can you not admit Boris, as a seeming street fighting supporter of Brexit during the referendum vote, may be gaining the votes of a significant number of Labour Leavers because of his strong stand to complete Brexit now when it must be completed or become lost in a hung or Labour controlled Parliament? In 2017 these Labour supporters stuck with Corbyn due to the fact that a actual leave date was two years off, Corbyn seemed to be a Leaver, Corbyn’s negatives were not as clear, and they may not in the June 2017 been drawn to May, who had been a patrician Tory who had recently been a Remainer?

Is it not possible Boris is successfully making this election into a Brexit election?
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cp
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« Reply #597 on: November 17, 2019, 07:34:01 AM »

I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.
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afleitch
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« Reply #598 on: November 17, 2019, 07:36:31 AM »

This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #599 on: November 17, 2019, 08:48:16 AM »

I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.

Sky's coverage of the election is generally OK (and certainly better than the BBC's) but they lose important marks for simply headlining it all as "THE BREXIT ELECTION" - not even a qualifying question mark!
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